Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Synthetic biology is a build capability and a governance test
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Design capability outpaces screening and oversight
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
8.1Genome, circuit and protein design platforms
Biological design now spans whole genomes, genetic circuits and designed proteins. Evidence is strongest where peer review exists and weakest for industrial performance.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recoded bacterial genomes | a 57-codon code reported in 2025; 61 codons in 2019 | 123 | Reported |
| Synthetic yeast | six and a half chromosomes combined in one strain | 443 | Reported |
| Circuit design software | 45 of 60 circuits worked in every output state | 6 | Reported |
| Protein design software | generative binder design tested by structure | 7 | Reported |
Couplings
- AIC → BIO design tools
- DAT → BIO sequence data
- FIN → BIO funding
Evidence to bind in 2027
- industrial performance of engineered strains
- cost of genome synthesis
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- XT-05 Genomics and Gene Editing
- SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
- XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
8.2Energy, water and feedstock for biomanufacturing
Fermentation and cell-free production need energy, process water and sugar or other feedstock. No source read counts them on a common basis.
0figures
bound for energy, water and feedstock in this edition
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Process energy | not published on a common basis; no figure used | 24 | Expert input |
| Process water | not published on a common basis; no figure used | 24 | Expert input |
| Feedstock | demand not bound; economy-level reports not opened | 37 | Expert input |
| Siting and planning | US awards fund plant planning, not construction | 24 | Reported |
Couplings
- ENE ↔ BIO process energy
- WAT → BIO process water
- FOO → BIO feedstock
Evidence to bind in 2027
- energy, water and feedstock per tonne of product
- plant counts and utilisation
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- XT-05 Genomics and Gene Editing
- SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
- XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
8.3DNA, instruments and manufacturing capacity
The build base starts with synthesised DNA, instruments and reagents and ends in pilot and commercial plants. Public sources count programmes more than capacity.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DNA synthesis | one provider reports USD 56.6 million for the segment in one quarter | 16 | Reported |
| Instruments and reagents | dependence not documented in the sources read | 36 | Expert input |
| Institute | USD 87 million over seven years for a manufacturing institute | 23 | Reported |
| Plant capacity | not counted in the sources read | 24 | Expert input |
Couplings
- MIN → BIO reagents
- TRD → BIO export controls
- FIN → INF plants
Evidence to bind in 2027
- synthesis capacity by provider and country
- instrument and reagent dependence
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- XT-05 Genomics and Gene Editing
- SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
- XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
8.4Economy, investment and workforce
Company results are mixed and the sector has no common investment series. Workforce numbers are the thinnest part of the evidence.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company revenue | Ginkgo fell about 25% in 2025; Twist guided to USD 456 to 457 million for fiscal 2026 | 1617 | Reported |
| Public programmes | US commission recommends at least USD 15 billion over five years; a recommendation | 14 | Reported |
| Bioeconomy size | commentary cites over USD 210 billion of US GDP; secondary figure | 15 | Reported |
| Workforce | skills gaps reported in policy; no figure bound | 14 | Expert input |
Couplings
- FIN → BIO scale-up
- HLT → BIO clinical demand
- FIN → INF plants
Evidence to bind in 2027
- investment on a common basis
- workforce size and skills gaps
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- XT-05 Genomics and Gene Editing
- SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
- XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
8.5Biosecurity and governance watch
The nearest governance test is whether screening and oversight keep pace with design tools. Frameworks exist, and their status and implementation differ by jurisdiction.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Screening | a 2025 study found tools often missed redesigned sequences; patches helped | 13 | Reported |
| US framework | 2024 framework; 2025 order; current status unclear in sources read | 252627 | Reported |
| EU | Biotech Act proposal of 16 December 2025 with biodefence measures | 2228 | Reported |
| Global | WHO guidance, CBD decisions, OECD papers, Cartagena Protocol | 18202135 | Reported |
Couplings
- DAT → BIO sequence data
- GOV → SEC screening rules
- GOV → TRD export controls
Evidence to bind in 2027
- screening coverage by provider
- text of the current US framework
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-04 Health and One Health
- GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
- XT-05 Genomics and Gene Editing
- SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
- XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (ed.), Syn57 represents a new chapter in the genetic code of life (news page, 1 August 2025; over 101,000 codons recoded; 64 to 57 codons; genome of about 4 megabases built from 38 fragments of about 100 kilobases). MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Nielsen, A.A.K. et al., Genetic circuit design automation, Science 352 (6281), 2016 (record read via Europe PMC: 60 circuits; 45 correct in all output states; 92% of output states as predicted). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Debugging and consolidating multiple synthetic chromosomes reveals combinatorial genetic interactions, Cell 186 (24), 5220 to 5236, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC: 6.5 synthetic chromosomes in one strain; over half of the Sc2.0 genome). Cell Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Robertson, W.E. et al., Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, Science 390 (6771), eady4368, published 23 October 2025 (record read via PubMed, PMID 40743368; the record gives a 4 megabase synthetic genome and six replaced sense codons). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Fredens, J. et al., Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome, Nature 569 (7757), 514 to 518, 2019 (record read via Europe PMC: 18,214 codons recoded; 61-codon genome). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, S.M. et al., Design of a synthetic yeast genome, Science 355, 1040 to 1044, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Watson, J.L. et al., De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion, Nature 620, 1089 to 1100, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24US Manufacturing Program (ed.), Bioindustrial (programme topic page; Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Program awards announced 10 July to 13 September 2024; 25 awards; USD 42 million cumulative). Manufacturing USA, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23BioMADE (ed.), DoD approves USD 87 million for newest bioindustrial manufacturing innovation institute (news page; seven years; the page shows Oct 20 and a 2023 footer, the press release is dated 2020 in search listings). BioMADE, Saint Paul. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey Global Institute (ed.), The Bio Revolution: Innovations transforming economies, societies, and our lives, May 2020, cited from memory; the fetch returned a service error and no figure is used. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Twist Bioscience Corporation (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results for the fiscal third quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company filing; revenue USD 118.4 million; nine months USD 332.8 million; fiscal 2026 guidance USD 456 to 457 million; company statements and guidance are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 20688-2, requirements for the production and quality control of synthesised gene fragments, genes and genome-scale constructs, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (company filing of 26 February 2026; revenue USD 170.155 million against USD 227.043 million; net loss USD 312.763 million; company statements are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Congressional Research Service (ed.), National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology: Final Report and Options for Congress, CRS Insight IN12546, 17 April 2025 (report of 8 April 2025; 49 recommendations; at least USD 15 billion over five years; National Biotechnology Coordination Office). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Federation of American Scientists (ed.), Translating Vision into Action: FAS commentary on the NSCEB final report (commentary page; six pillars; cites over USD 210 billion of US GDP and over 640,000 jobs for the bioeconomy; secondary and advocacy-leaning source). Federation of American Scientists, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Executive Order 14292, Improving the Safety and Security of Biological Research, 5 May 2025 (90 days to revise or replace the framework), taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of an explainer page was refused by the fetch tool. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21World Health Organization (ed.), Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences: mitigating biorisks and governing dual-use research (publication page, 13 September 2022). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Strengthening nucleic acid biosecurity screening against generative protein design tools, Science 390 (6768), 82 to 87, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC; abstract only; no method detail used). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Office of Science and Technology Policy (ed.), Framework for Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening, April 2024, taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of the page was refused by the fetch tool. OSTP, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), report on artificial intelligence and biosecurity risks (reported in July 2026 as unable to determine whether the 2024 framework or the 2025 policy had been revised), taken from a trade news summary. Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Baker McKenzie (ed.), EU Biotech Act unveiled: Commission proposal to turn Europe into a biotech powerhouse (law firm summary, 19 December 2025; proposal of 16 December 2025; health focus; investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group; 12-month certificate extension; biodefence measures; second act expected in Q3 2026). Secondary source, not the Commission text. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Biotech Act, COM(2025) 1022, 16 December 2025, taken from law firm and regulator summaries; the Commission page was not retrieved. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18OECD (ed.), Anticipatory governance for responsible innovation in synthetic biology, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 193, 21 May 2026 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Synthetic biology (programme page; decisions X/13 to 16/21; AHTEG; horizon scanning; thematic action plan). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2000, cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03.back