Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Synthetic biology is a build capability and a governance test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Design capability outpaces screening and oversight
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Synthetic biology matters to the Nexus programme in three ways. It is a build capability: whole genomes are now designed and written, and in 2025 a bacterium was reported with a 57-codon genetic code, down from the standard 6412. It is a manufacturing base, built from DNA synthesis, biofoundries and fermentation capacity that few sources count. It is also a biosecurity question, because design tools and cheap DNA lower the barrier to harm as well as to benefit. The build evidence is strong at the scale of single organisms. A synthetic E. coli genome recoded 18,214 codons in 20193, and by 2023 six and a half synthetic yeast chromosomes had been combined in one strain4. Design tools have matured: a 2016 automation tool built 60 genetic circuits and 45 worked in every output state6. Therapies built with CRISPR reached patients, and 29 of 30 evaluable patients in one trial were free of severe crises for 12 months8. The risk evidence is newer. A 2025 study found that open machine-learning design software could produce protein variants that screening tools often missed, and it reported patches that improved detection13. Governance is moving but uneven. A US commission asked Congress in April 2025 for at least USD 15 billion over five years14, the EU proposed a Biotech Act on 16 December 202522, and the OECD found in May 2026 that implementation of anticipatory governance remains uneven18. Company revenue is a weak signal: Ginkgo Bioworks reported USD 170.2 million for 2025, down from USD 227.0 million17. The physical footprint of fermentation is the least measured part. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no capability date and ranks no country or company.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the synthetic biology baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. A bacterium with a 57-codon code and a yeast strain with six and a half synthetic chromosomes.24

    How far has genome writing come?Reported

  2. Yes at the scale of tens of circuits and designed binders, in peer-reviewed tests.67

    Can circuits and proteins be designed by software?Reported

  3. A CRISPR therapy was authorised in the US in December 2023.89

    Do engineered therapies reach patients?Reported

  4. A 2025 study found tools often missed redesigned sequences; patches helped.13

    Is DNA screening keeping up with design tools?Reported

  5. A US commission report, an EU proposal, OECD and CBD work; uneven implementation.141822

    What does governance look like?Reported

  6. Company results are mixed: Ginkgo revenue fell in 2025, Twist raised its 2026 guidance.1617

    What does the money look like?Reported

  7. Not published on a common basis; no figure bound.24

    What is the physical footprint?Expert input

  8. Whether screening and governance keep pace with design and cheap DNA. SCN-XT04-DSG-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BLD-001

A bacterium with a 57-codon genetic code was reported in Science in 2025, seven codons fewer than the standard 64, with over 101,000 codon changes in a synthetic genome of about 4 million base pairs.

Figure S.1Codons in the genetic code
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Standard genetic code64
Syn61 strain (2019)61
Syn57 strain (2025)57

Sources: MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology2; Nature 569 (2019)3. Each bar counts codons in the code of that organism.

Whole-genome design and writing now works at the scale of a bacterial genome. The authors state aims such as further compression and tests of viral resistance; those are plans, not results12. The result shows capability on one organism and says nothing about industrial use, cost or safety in the field.

S.4At a glance

57codons

Syn57 genetic code2

6.5chromosomes

synthetic yeast in one strain4

97%

exa-cel trial, 29 of 308

49recommendations

US commission, 202514

170.2USD million

Ginkgo revenue, 202517

25awards

US bioindustrial planning awards, 202424

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading synthetic biology as a build capability, a manufacturing base and a governance test.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people synthetic biology arrives as a medicine, a food label or a warning about misuse.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Company results are mixed and public programmes are at the planning stage.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Synthetic biology is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of synthetic biology and bioengineering as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of any capability date, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any laboratory or programme. Biosafety, biosecurity, export-control and funding rules are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 synthetic biology edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Robertson, W.E. et al., Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, Science 390 (6771), eady4368, published 23 October 2025 (record read via PubMed, PMID 40743368; the record gives a 4 megabase synthetic genome and six replaced sense codons). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (ed.), Syn57 represents a new chapter in the genetic code of life (news page, 1 August 2025; over 101,000 codons recoded; 64 to 57 codons; genome of about 4 megabases built from 38 fragments of about 100 kilobases). MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Fredens, J. et al., Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome, Nature 569 (7757), 514 to 518, 2019 (record read via Europe PMC: 18,214 codons recoded; 61-codon genome). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Debugging and consolidating multiple synthetic chromosomes reveals combinatorial genetic interactions, Cell 186 (24), 5220 to 5236, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC: 6.5 synthetic chromosomes in one strain; over half of the Sc2.0 genome). Cell Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Nielsen, A.A.K. et al., Genetic circuit design automation, Science 352 (6281), 2016 (record read via Europe PMC: 60 circuits; 45 correct in all output states; 92% of output states as predicted). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8Frangoul, H. et al., Exagamglogene autotemcel for severe sickle cell disease, New England Journal of Medicine 390 (18), 1649 to 1662, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC: 44 treated; 29 of 30 evaluable free of severe crises for 12 months; median follow-up 19.3 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13Strengthening nucleic acid biosecurity screening against generative protein design tools, Science 390 (6768), 82 to 87, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC; abstract only; no method detail used). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14Congressional Research Service (ed.), National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology: Final Report and Options for Congress, CRS Insight IN12546, 17 April 2025 (report of 8 April 2025; 49 recommendations; at least USD 15 billion over five years; National Biotechnology Coordination Office). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22Baker McKenzie (ed.), EU Biotech Act unveiled: Commission proposal to turn Europe into a biotech powerhouse (law firm summary, 19 December 2025; proposal of 16 December 2025; health focus; investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group; 12-month certificate extension; biodefence measures; second act expected in Q3 2026). Secondary source, not the Commission text. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18OECD (ed.), Anticipatory governance for responsible innovation in synthetic biology, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 193, 21 May 2026 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (company filing of 26 February 2026; revenue USD 170.155 million against USD 227.043 million; net loss USD 312.763 million; company statements are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 7Watson, J.L. et al., De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion, Nature 620, 1089 to 1100, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy and Lyfgenia; ages 12 and over; 29 of 31 evaluable Casgevy patients free of severe crises for at least 12 months). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Twist Bioscience Corporation (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results for the fiscal third quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company filing; revenue USD 118.4 million; nine months USD 332.8 million; fiscal 2026 guidance USD 456 to 457 million; company statements and guidance are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 24US Manufacturing Program (ed.), Bioindustrial (programme topic page; Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Program awards announced 10 July to 13 September 2024; 25 awards; USD 42 million cumulative). Manufacturing USA, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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