Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the synthetic biology baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

9 min read1 figure0 tables28 notesNR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Synthetic biology is a build capability and a governance test
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 BLD
    3. 2.3 CLN
    4. 2.4 Security
    5. 2.5 Governance
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Design capability outpaces screening and oversight
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BLD-001

A bacterium with a 57-codon genetic code was reported in Science in 2025, seven codons fewer than the standard 64, with over 101,000 codon changes in a synthetic genome of about 4 million base pairs.

Figure 2.1Codons in the genetic code
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Standard genetic code64
Syn61 strain (2019)61
Syn57 strain (2025)57

Sources: MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology2; Nature 569 (2019)3. Each bar counts codons in the code of that organism.

Implication

Whole-genome design and writing now works at the scale of a bacterial genome. The authors state aims such as further compression and tests of viral resistance; those are plans, not results12. The result shows capability on one organism and says nothing about industrial use, cost or safety in the field.

What would move it

Peer-reviewed tests of viral resistance, independent replication and any published cost of whole-genome synthesis would each move this finding.

2.2BLD

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BLD-001

    A bacterium with a 57-codon genetic code was reported in 2025. Its synthetic genome of about 4 million base pairs carries over 101,000 codon changes and was built from 38 fragments of about 100,000 base pairs; an earlier strain recoded 18,214 codons and uses 61 codons.12344

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BLD-002

    By 2023 a single yeast strain carried six and a half synthetic chromosomes, over half of the synthetic yeast genome design; in 2010 the first cell run by a chemically synthesised genome had a 1.08 million base pair genome.4543

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BLD-003

    A 2016 design automation tool built 60 genetic circuits in E. coli, 45 worked in every output state and 92% of output states matched predictions; a 2023 generative method designed protein binders, and one binder to influenza hemagglutinin matched its design model in a cryo-EM structure.67

2.3CLN

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLN-004

    A CRISPR-edited cell therapy was authorised by the US regulator on 8 December 2023; in a phase 3 study 29 of 30 evaluable patients (97%) were free of severe crises for 12 months, and in 2025 a patient-specific base-editing therapy was given to one infant.8910

2.4Security

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SEC-005

    A 2025 Science study found that current screening tools often failed to detect sequences redesigned with open machine-learning protein design software, and reported patches that substantially improved detection.13

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SEC-006

    A 2024 Science policy forum on mirror life called for broad discussion on a path forward.12

2.5Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    Executive Order 14292 of May 2025 gave OSTP 90 days to revise or replace the 2024 US framework for nucleic acid synthesis screening; a Congressional Research Service note found in July 2026 that it could not determine whether either had been revised, and sources differ on whether the framework is in force.25262730

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    The US National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology delivered its final report on 8 April 2025 with 49 recommendations and a call for at least USD 15 billion over five years.1415

  3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    The European Commission proposed a Biotech Act on 16 December 2025, centred on health biotechnology, with an investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group, a 12-month certificate extension and biodefence measures; a second act on the wider ecosystem was expected in the third quarter of 2026.222829

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The OECD found in May 2026 that governments are moving toward adaptive synthetic biology governance but that implementation remains uneven; the CBD asked in decision 16/21 for a thematic action plan on capacity building and technology transfer.181920

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Ginkgo Bioworks reported revenue of USD 170.2 million for 2025 against USD 227.0 million for 2024, and Twist Bioscience reported USD 332.8 million for the nine months to 30 June 2026 with full-year guidance of USD 456 to 457 million. These are company statements.1617

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is design capability and cheap DNA moving faster than screening practice and governance, while the footprint of the manufacturing base stays unmeasured. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (ed.), Syn57 represents a new chapter in the genetic code of life (news page, 1 August 2025; over 101,000 codons recoded; 64 to 57 codons; genome of about 4 megabases built from 38 fragments of about 100 kilobases). MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Fredens, J. et al., Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome, Nature 569 (7757), 514 to 518, 2019 (record read via Europe PMC: 18,214 codons recoded; 61-codon genome). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1Robertson, W.E. et al., Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, Science 390 (6771), eady4368, published 23 October 2025 (record read via PubMed, PMID 40743368; the record gives a 4 megabase synthetic genome and six replaced sense codons). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: bioRxiv preprint of the Syn57 study, Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, 2025, identified from a search result; the page returned HTTP 429. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4Debugging and consolidating multiple synthetic chromosomes reveals combinatorial genetic interactions, Cell 186 (24), 5220 to 5236, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC: 6.5 synthetic chromosomes in one strain; over half of the Sc2.0 genome). Cell Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5Gibson, D.G. et al., Creation of a bacterial cell controlled by a chemically synthesised genome, Science 329 (5987), 52 to 56, 2010 (record read via Europe PMC: 1.08 million base pair genome). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, S.M. et al., Design of a synthetic yeast genome, Science 355, 1040 to 1044, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6Nielsen, A.A.K. et al., Genetic circuit design automation, Science 352 (6281), 2016 (record read via Europe PMC: 60 circuits; 45 correct in all output states; 92% of output states as predicted). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Watson, J.L. et al., De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion, Nature 620, 1089 to 1100, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8Frangoul, H. et al., Exagamglogene autotemcel for severe sickle cell disease, New England Journal of Medicine 390 (18), 1649 to 1662, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC: 44 treated; 29 of 30 evaluable free of severe crises for 12 months; median follow-up 19.3 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy and Lyfgenia; ages 12 and over; 29 of 31 evaluable Casgevy patients free of severe crises for at least 12 months). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10Musunuru, K. et al., Patient-specific in vivo gene editing to treat a rare genetic disease, New England Journal of Medicine 392 (22), 2235 to 2243, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC: one infant; two infusions at about 7 and 8 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13Strengthening nucleic acid biosecurity screening against generative protein design tools, Science 390 (6768), 82 to 87, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC; abstract only; no method detail used). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 12Confronting risks of mirror life, Science 386, 1351 to 1353, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC; the record gives only a one-line abstract calling for broad discussion). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Office of Science and Technology Policy (ed.), Framework for Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening, April 2024, taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of the page was refused by the fetch tool. OSTP, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Executive Order 14292, Improving the Safety and Security of Biological Research, 5 May 2025 (90 days to revise or replace the framework), taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of an explainer page was refused by the fetch tool. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), report on artificial intelligence and biosecurity risks (reported in July 2026 as unable to determine whether the 2024 framework or the 2025 policy had been revised), taken from a trade news summary. Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Engineering Biology Research Consortium (ed.), response on nucleic acid synthesis screening under Executive Order 14292, November 2025, listed in search results only. EBRC, Emeryville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 14Congressional Research Service (ed.), National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology: Final Report and Options for Congress, CRS Insight IN12546, 17 April 2025 (report of 8 April 2025; 49 recommendations; at least USD 15 billion over five years; National Biotechnology Coordination Office). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 15Federation of American Scientists (ed.), Translating Vision into Action: FAS commentary on the NSCEB final report (commentary page; six pillars; cites over USD 210 billion of US GDP and over 640,000 jobs for the bioeconomy; secondary and advocacy-leaning source). Federation of American Scientists, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 22Baker McKenzie (ed.), EU Biotech Act unveiled: Commission proposal to turn Europe into a biotech powerhouse (law firm summary, 19 December 2025; proposal of 16 December 2025; health focus; investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group; 12-month certificate extension; biodefence measures; second act expected in Q3 2026). Secondary source, not the Commission text. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Biotech Act, COM(2025) 1022, 16 December 2025, taken from law firm and regulator summaries; the Commission page was not retrieved. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament (ed.), Legislative train entry for the European Biotech Act II (second act expected in the third quarter of 2026), taken from a search-result summary; the page returned no content. European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 18OECD (ed.), Anticipatory governance for responsible innovation in synthetic biology, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 193, 21 May 2026 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 19OECD (ed.), Synthetic biology, AI and automation: a forward-looking technology assessment, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 187, 4 December 2025 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 20Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Synthetic biology (programme page; decisions X/13 to 16/21; AHTEG; horizon scanning; thematic action plan). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 16Twist Bioscience Corporation (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results for the fiscal third quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company filing; revenue USD 118.4 million; nine months USD 332.8 million; fiscal 2026 guidance USD 456 to 457 million; company statements and guidance are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 17Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (company filing of 26 February 2026; revenue USD 170.155 million against USD 227.043 million; net loss USD 312.763 million; company statements are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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