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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Synthetic biology is a build capability and a governance test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Design capability outpaces screening and oversight
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

BLD · Genomes

Codons in the genetic code of the Syn57 strain

57codons

down from 64; over 101,000 codon changes.

Reported2025Science12

BLD · Yeast

Synthetic yeast chromosomes combined in one strain

6.5chromosomes

over half of the synthetic genome in one strain.

Reported2023Cell4

CLN · Therapy

Patients free of severe crises for 12 months, exa-cel trial

97%

29 of 30 evaluable patients.

Reported2024NEJM8

GOV · Governance

Minimum federal funding recommended by a US commission

15USD billion

over five years; a recommendation, not spending.

Reported2025CRS14

FIN · Finance

Ginkgo Bioworks revenue

170.2USD million

down from USD 227.0 million in 2024; company filing.

Reported2025company filing17

SYS · Cross-system

Awards in the US distributed bioindustrial manufacturing programme

25awards

USD 42 million in total by September 2024.

Reported2024programme page24

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through synthetic biology, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries synthetic biology risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATProcess water use of fermentation and facilities is not published on a common basis.WAT → BIOExpert input EQL 1
ENEEnergy use of biomanufacturing at scale is not bound; no figure used.ENE ↔ BIOExpert input EQL 1
FOONo coupling documented at baseline in the sources read; precision fermentation and crop work are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTA CRISPR therapy was authorised in 2023 and 29 of 30 evaluable trial patients had no severe crises for 12 months.BIO → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOThe core system: recoded genomes, synthetic yeast chromosomes, designed circuits and proteins.the core systemReported EQL 4
CLIBio-based production could change emissions; no figure bound here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
INFUS planning awards and an institute for bioindustrial manufacturing; capacity itself is not counted.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
FINCompany revenue is mixed: Ginkgo fell to USD 170.2 million, Twist guided to USD 456 to 457 million.FIN → BIOReported EQL 2
DATDesign tools and sequence data couple to screening; the 2025 study tested that link.DAT → BIOReported EQL 4
AICMachine-learning design tools are part of the build capability and of the screening problem.AIC → BIOReported EQL 4
MINReagent, instrument and feedstock dependence is not documented in the sources read.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
TRDExport controls and biosecurity rules shape access to tools and materials; text not bound.BIO ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on synthetic biology, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemsynthetic biology couples to health, food, finance and biosecuritydesign and screening gapTHIN
GS-01Waterprocess water use not publishedfacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyenergy footprint of manufacturing not boundload from large facilitiesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented coupling in the sources readnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthauthorised CRISPR therapy and trial results89access and costPARTIAL
GS-05Financecompany filings give a weak signal1617funding gapsPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to tools and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundenergy and feedstock demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuremanufacturing planning awards2324capacity not countedTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitygene drive and release questions1120release and oversightPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalscreening of machine-designed sequences13sequence data handlingPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyUS, EU, OECD and CBD instruments14182022uneven implementationPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong peer-reviewed base13467common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Robertson, W.E. et al., Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, Science 390 (6771), eady4368, published 23 October 2025 (record read via PubMed, PMID 40743368; the record gives a 4 megabase synthetic genome and six replaced sense codons). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (ed.), Syn57 represents a new chapter in the genetic code of life (news page, 1 August 2025; over 101,000 codons recoded; 64 to 57 codons; genome of about 4 megabases built from 38 fragments of about 100 kilobases). MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Debugging and consolidating multiple synthetic chromosomes reveals combinatorial genetic interactions, Cell 186 (24), 5220 to 5236, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC: 6.5 synthetic chromosomes in one strain; over half of the Sc2.0 genome). Cell Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8Frangoul, H. et al., Exagamglogene autotemcel for severe sickle cell disease, New England Journal of Medicine 390 (18), 1649 to 1662, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC: 44 treated; 29 of 30 evaluable free of severe crises for 12 months; median follow-up 19.3 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14Congressional Research Service (ed.), National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology: Final Report and Options for Congress, CRS Insight IN12546, 17 April 2025 (report of 8 April 2025; 49 recommendations; at least USD 15 billion over five years; National Biotechnology Coordination Office). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (company filing of 26 February 2026; revenue USD 170.155 million against USD 227.043 million; net loss USD 312.763 million; company statements are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24US Manufacturing Program (ed.), Bioindustrial (programme topic page; Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Program awards announced 10 July to 13 September 2024; 25 awards; USD 42 million cumulative). Manufacturing USA, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy and Lyfgenia; ages 12 and over; 29 of 31 evaluable Casgevy patients free of severe crises for at least 12 months). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Twist Bioscience Corporation (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results for the fiscal third quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company filing; revenue USD 118.4 million; nine months USD 332.8 million; fiscal 2026 guidance USD 456 to 457 million; company statements and guidance are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23BioMADE (ed.), DoD approves USD 87 million for newest bioindustrial manufacturing innovation institute (news page; seven years; the page shows Oct 20 and a 2023 footer, the press release is dated 2020 in search listings). BioMADE, Saint Paul. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11Kyrou, K. et al., A CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive targeting doublesex causes complete population suppression in caged Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, Nature Biotechnology 36, 1062 to 1066, 2018 (record read via Europe PMC; laboratory cages only). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 20Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Synthetic biology (programme page; decisions X/13 to 16/21; AHTEG; horizon scanning; thematic action plan). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13Strengthening nucleic acid biosecurity screening against generative protein design tools, Science 390 (6768), 82 to 87, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC; abstract only; no method detail used). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18OECD (ed.), Anticipatory governance for responsible innovation in synthetic biology, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 193, 21 May 2026 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22Baker McKenzie (ed.), EU Biotech Act unveiled: Commission proposal to turn Europe into a biotech powerhouse (law firm summary, 19 December 2025; proposal of 16 December 2025; health focus; investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group; 12-month certificate extension; biodefence measures; second act expected in Q3 2026). Secondary source, not the Commission text. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 3Fredens, J. et al., Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome, Nature 569 (7757), 514 to 518, 2019 (record read via Europe PMC: 18,214 codons recoded; 61-codon genome). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 6Nielsen, A.A.K. et al., Genetic circuit design automation, Science 352 (6281), 2016 (record read via Europe PMC: 60 circuits; 45 correct in all output states; 92% of output states as predicted). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 7Watson, J.L. et al., De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion, Nature 620, 1089 to 1100, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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