Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the HPC baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Governance
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

LineShine, a CPU-only system at the National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen, entered the June 2026 TOP500 list at first place with 2.198 exaflops on Linpack.

Figure 2.1Linpack results of the five largest systems, June 2026 (exaflops)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
LineShine · China2.198
El Capitan · United States1.809
Frontier · United States1.353
Aurora · United States1.012
JUPITER Booster · Germany1.000

Source: TOP500 list, June 20261. Bars show the Rmax values the list gives.

Implication

The list now holds five systems at or above one exaflop, on three continents. LineShine draws about 42.2 megawatts for 52.07 gigaflops per watt, and the page lists it as CPU-only4. China had not submitted systems for some years, according to search summaries, so earlier lists did not show all capacity30. Linpack is one benchmark, and LineShine leads HPCG while El Capitan leads the mixed-precision table5.

What would move it

The November 2026 list, independent descriptions of LineShine and further submissions would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    LineShine, a new system at the National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen, entered the June 2026 TOP500 list at first place with 2.198 exaflops on Linpack, 13,789,440 cores and about 42.2 megawatts of power.1430

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    The combined performance of the June 2026 TOP500 list is 18.73 exaflops, up from 14.99 six months before, and 276 of 500 systems use accelerators, up from 255.5

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    Benchmarks give different readings: El Capitan leads the mixed-precision HPL-MxP table at 16.7 exaflops, and LineShine leads HPCG at 22.00 petaflops.45

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-009

    JUPITER, inaugurated on 5 September 2025, uses about 24,000 NVIDIA GH200 superchips, warm-water cooling with heat reuse, and reached exactly 1.000 exaflops on Linpack.912

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    The Green500 leader, KAIROS, reached 73.282 gigaflops per watt at 46 kilowatts, against 60.94 for El Capitan and 52.07 for LineShine.345

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    The IEA is reported to estimate that data centres used about 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 and could use about 945 terawatt-hours in 2030, in press and search summaries.28

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    US data centres used 176 terawatt-hours in 2023, 4.4% of national electricity, and a DOE news item gives a 2028 range of 6.7% to 12%.1229

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    BIS extended its authorised designer timeline for advanced computing chips to 31 December 2026 on 7 April 2026 and issued guidance in May 2026 on licences for entities headquartered in Country Group D:5 or Macau.1333

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    EuroHPC reports a budget of at least EUR 8.2 billion for 2021 to 2027 and lists 19 AI Factories and 13 antennas, though the page names 18 sites and 15 antennas.1011

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

    RIKEN, Fujitsu and NVIDIA plan FugakuNEXT for around 2030, with more than 5 times the hardware performance of Fugaku and up to 100 times the application performance in about the same 40 megawatts.1441

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    The US Exascale Computing Project cost USD 1.8 billion from 2016 to 2024, and the CHIPS and Science Act gave USD 50 billion to Commerce for semiconductor programmes.1743

2.6Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is power and siting limits on large systems meeting fast-growing demand, while export controls and unlisted systems make capacity hard to see. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, June 2026, 67th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, cores and power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4TOP500 (ed.), LineShine Debuts at No. 1 as the TOP500 Enters a New Global Exascale Era (news release, 23 June 2026; LineShine, HPCG, HPL-MxP, Green500 values). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: HPCwire (ed.), Surprise: Chinese LineShine takes number 1 on TOP500 (23 June 2026), and press coverage that China had stopped submitting to the list in 2023, taken from search-result summaries; the HPCwire page returned an access error. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5TOP500 (ed.), Highlights, June 2026 (list totals, accelerator and processor shares, HPCG and HPL-MxP tables; the page gives some figures that differ from the list page). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), JUPITER launching Europe’s exascale era (news item, 5 September 2025; about 24,000 GH200 superchips; warm-water cooling; funding shares; power and budget not stated). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 2TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, November 2025, 66th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3TOP500 (ed.), Green500 list, June 2026 (list page; top five by gigaflops per watt). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (2025; about 415 TWh for data centres in 2024, about 945 TWh in 2030), taken from press and search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024; figures taken from a DOE news item [12]; the report pages returned an access error. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), BIS homepage (notice of 16 January 2025 on advanced computing integrated circuits; extension of 7 April 2026 to 31 December 2026; guidance of May 2026 on Country Group D:5 and Macau; full texts not opened). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security, Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use (Federal Register, 25 October 2023), not retrieved; the page redirected. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), AI Factories (programme page; 19 AI Factories and 13 antennas stated; the page lists 18 sites and 15 antennas). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), Discover EuroHPC JU (about page; budget of at least EUR 8.2 billion for 2021 to 2027; Council Regulations 2021/1173, 2024/1732 and 2026/150). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14RIKEN (ed.), FugakuNEXT project with Fujitsu and NVIDIA (news item, 22 August 2025; MONAKA-X CPU, NVIDIA GPU; more than 5 times hardware performance; up to 100 times application performance in about 40 MW; more than 600 exaflops FP8 sparse; operation around 2030). RIKEN, Wako. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: DatacenterDynamics and The Next Platform (eds.), reports on FugakuNEXT (development budget above 110 billion yen, FP64 peak goal above 2.6 exaflops), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17Exascale Computing Project (ed.), project site (2016 to 2024; USD 1.8 billion; about 2,800 collaborators; concluded). US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 43US Congress (ed.), CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, Division A, section 102 (statute text, enacted 9 August 2022; CHIPS for America Fund appropriations for fiscal years 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 50 billion, of which USD 39 billion for incentives and USD 11 billion for research). Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: HPC and Advanced Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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