- HPC and Advanced Computing 2026
- Chapter 5
Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- demand for large systems and data centres grows while grid connections and cooling capacity grow more slowly
- Analogues
- the 2023 US share of 4.4% and the 2028 range of 6.7% to 12%12
- Interventions
- none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
ENE → INF
new systems of 15 to 40 megawatts compete for grid connections
2026
- 2
INF → ENE
accelerated systems raise facility load
2026
- 3
GOV → ENE
reporting rules make load visible to regulators
2026
- 4
TRD → INF
licence rules shape where new hardware can go
2026
- 5
FIN → INF
public programmes favour sites with power and cooling
2024
- 6
INF → CLI
electricity demand adds to emissions where grids are carbon-intensive
2026
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01 would travel through HPC and Advanced Computing’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Energy to infrastructure | New systems of 15 to 40 megawatts compete for grid connections. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 1 |
| 02 Infrastructure to energy | Accelerated systems raise facility load. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 2 |
| 03 Governance to energy | Reporting rules make load visible to regulators. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 3 |
| 04 Trade to infrastructure | Licence rules shape where new hardware can go. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 4 |
| 05 Finance to infrastructure | Public programmes favour sites with power and cooling. Analogue or source: 2024. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 5 |
| 06 Infrastructure to climate | Electricity demand adds to emissions where grids are carbon-intensive. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-07, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: HPC and Advanced Computing 2026, scenario SCN-XT07-PWR-01 (2026); HPC and Advanced Computing 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back