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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables12 notesNR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Systems

LineShine Linpack result, new first place

2.198exaflops

CPU-only; about 42.2 MW.

Reported2026TOP5004

INF · Systems

Combined performance of the TOP500 list

18.73exaflops

up from 14.99 six months before.

Reported2026TOP5005

ENE · Efficiency

Green500 leader, KAIROS

73.282GFlops per watt

3.05 petaflops at 46 kW.

Reported2026Green50035

ENE · Energy

US data centre electricity use

176TWh

4.4% of US electricity.

Reported2023DOE12

FIN · Finance

Exascale Computing Project budget

1.8USD billion

from 2016 to 2024.

Reported2024ECP17

GOV · Policy

EuroHPC budget, 2021 to 2027

8.2EUR billion

at least; page gives the amended figure.

Reported2026EuroHPC11

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through HPC, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries HPC risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling-water use of large facilities is not bound in this edition.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENEThe five largest systems draw 15.8 to 42.2 megawatts; US data centres used 4.4% of electricity in 2023.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; weather and crop applications are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; drug discovery and genomics workloads are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIElectricity and cooling demand matter for emissions; the footprint of large systems is not bound.INF → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: five systems at or above one exaflop; list performance 18.73 exaflops.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINUSD 1.8 billion for the US exascale project; USD 50 billion for CHIPS programmes; EUR 8.2 billion for EuroHPC.FIN → INFReported EQL 4
DATLarge systems hold sensitive scientific data; no figure is bound.INF ↔ DATExpert input EQL 1
AICAccelerators are in 276 of 500 listed systems; the AI and scientific demand split is not bound.INF ↔ AICReported EQL 3
MINNo supply figure for chips, memory or minerals is bound for HPC.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDUS licence rules and guidance shape access to advanced computing items.INF ↔ TRDReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on HPC, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemHPC couples to energy, chips and policypower and siting limitsTHIN
GS-01Watercooling-water use not boundfacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyfive largest systems draw 15.8 to 42.2 MW1load from large facilitiesPARTIAL
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05Financepublic programmes of USD 1.8 billion and EUR 8.2 billion1711dependence on a few programmesPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to compute and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundelectricity demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurewarm-water cooling and heat reuse at JUPITER9single-site dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesheat reuse into a campus network9none documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationweather and climate workloads not evidenced herenone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalsecurity of large systems not boundaccess control and export rulesTHIN
GS-14PolicyBIS notices, EuroHPC and UK plan131123fragmented rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepublic lists and standards forums11516common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4TOP500 (ed.), LineShine Debuts at No. 1 as the TOP500 Enters a New Global Exascale Era (news release, 23 June 2026; LineShine, HPCG, HPL-MxP, Green500 values). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5TOP500 (ed.), Highlights, June 2026 (list totals, accelerator and processor shares, HPCG and HPL-MxP tables; the page gives some figures that differ from the list page). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3TOP500 (ed.), Green500 list, June 2026 (list page; top five by gigaflops per watt). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17Exascale Computing Project (ed.), project site (2016 to 2024; USD 1.8 billion; about 2,800 collaborators; concluded). US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), Discover EuroHPC JU (about page; budget of at least EUR 8.2 billion for 2021 to 2027; Council Regulations 2021/1173, 2024/1732 and 2026/150). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 1TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, June 2026, 67th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, cores and power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), JUPITER launching Europe’s exascale era (news item, 5 September 2025; about 24,000 GH200 superchips; warm-water cooling; funding shares; power and budget not stated). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 13US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), BIS homepage (notice of 16 January 2025 on advanced computing integrated circuits; extension of 7 April 2026 to 31 December 2026; guidance of May 2026 on Country Group D:5 and Macau; full texts not opened). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23UK Government (ed.), AI Opportunities Action Plan (page; expand the AI Research Resource by at least 20 times by 2030; non-AI HPC and exascale flagged as unresolved; no budget figure). Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 15OpenMP Architecture Review Board (ed.), OpenMP specifications (index page; version 6.0 of November 2024; technical report 15 as a public comment draft of 6.1, July 2026). OpenMP ARB, Urbana. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 16MPI Forum (ed.), MPI documents (index page; MPI 5.0 voted through 5 June 2025; MPI 4.1 of 2 November 2023). Message Passing Interface Forum. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: HPC and Advanced Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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