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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 HPC agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 HPC edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the HPC candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. H-01

    What do the largest systems and the facilities around them draw in power and cooling water, and how does that compare with efficiency leaders?

    INI-XT07-PWR-01 · power and cooling footprint; first output: footprint table by system.

  2. H-02

    How much of the demand on data centres comes from scientific systems, and how much from commercial AI workloads?

    INI-XT07-DEM-02 · demand split; first output: demand note.

  3. H-03

    Which chips, memory and fabrication steps are single points of failure for large systems?

    INI-XT07-SUP-03 · accelerator and memory supply; first output: dependence map.

  4. H-04

    How can capacity be seen when systems do not submit to public lists?

    INI-XT07-VIS-04 · visible and unlisted capacity; first output: visibility table.

  5. H-05

    How can benchmark results be read together, given that Linpack, HPCG and mixed-precision tables differ?

    INI-XT07-BMK-05 · benchmarks read together; first output: benchmark table.

  6. H-06

    Which national and regional rules set data centre reporting, and how do they differ?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

  7. H-07

    What workforce exists for operating, programming and securing large systems?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. H-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real shortages or outages, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 HPC portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT07-PWR-01Power and cooling footprintInitiativeH-01PROPOSED
INI-XT07-DEM-02Demand splitInitiativeH-02PROPOSED
INI-XT07-SUP-03Accelerator and memory supplyInitiativeH-03PROPOSED
INI-XT07-VIS-04Visible and unlisted capacityInitiativeH-04PROPOSED
INI-XT07-BMK-05Benchmarks read togetherInitiativeH-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT07-2027-01Power and siting Universe missionMissionH-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The HPC edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and cybersecurity, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    computing and facility readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · XT-06 semiconductors and AI compute · SR-04 minerals

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    systems, power, cooling, chips, funding, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-07 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the HPC candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the HPC candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT07-2027-01 · Power and siting Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · list entryINI-XT07-VIS-04visible and unlisted capacityPUBLIC
INF-003 · benchmarksINI-XT07-BMK-05benchmarks read togetherPUBLIC
ENE-004 · efficiencyINI-XT07-PWR-01power and cooling footprintPUBLIC
ENE-006 · data centre energyINI-XT07-DEM-02demand splitPUBLIC
GOV-007 · export rulesregional consortiarule overlayPUBLIC
GOV-008 · EuroHPCregional consortiarule overlayPUBLIC
FIN-010 · public fundingINI-XT07-SUP-03 · key F reviewaccelerator and memory supplyPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT07-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
TOP500 and Green500 listsTOP500 projecttwice a yearINF-001
TOP500 highlights and release pagesTOP500 projecttwice a yearINF-002
Green500 listTOP500 projecttwice a yearENE-004
BIS notices and guidanceUS Department of Commerceper releaseGOV-007
EuroHPC pages and regulationsEuroHPC Joint Undertakingper releaseGOV-008
DOE data centre report and newsUS Department of Energyper releaseENE-006
National roadmaps and plansagencies and institutesper eventGOV-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT07-001LineShine at first place on the June 2026 list4PARTIALINF · TRDresearch question H-04
SIG-XT07-002US data centre share of 4.4% in 2023 and a 2028 range12CORROBORATEDENEinitiative H-01
SIG-XT07-003Advanced computing timeline extended to end of 202613PARTIALTRD · INFresearch question H-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4TOP500 (ed.), LineShine Debuts at No. 1 as the TOP500 Enters a New Global Exascale Era (news release, 23 June 2026; LineShine, HPCG, HPL-MxP, Green500 values). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), BIS homepage (notice of 16 January 2025 on advanced computing integrated circuits; extension of 7 April 2026 to 31 December 2026; guidance of May 2026 on Country Group D:5 and Macau; full texts not opened). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: HPC and Advanced Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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