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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Systems and compute platforms
    2. 8.2 Power, cooling and data centres
    3. 8.3 Chips, memory and fabrication
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Security, export controls and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Systems and compute platforms

Large systems are listed twice a year. Evidence is strongest where a public list exists, and weakest for systems that do not submit.

2.198exaflops

LineShine Linpack result4

18.73exaflops

combined list performance5

276of 500

systems with accelerators5

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Exascale systemsfive systems at or above 1 exaflop on Linpack; JUPITER at exactly 1.000; the Frontier page gives 1.6 exaflops peak147Reported
Accelerated systems276 of 500, up from 255; AMD in 38.4% and Intel in 53.2% of systems5Reported
Mixed-precision tablesEl Capitan 16.7 exaflops on HPL-MxP; LineShine 22.00 petaflops on HPCG5Reported
Planned DOE systemsLux and Discovery are named at Oak Ridge; specifications not read82731Expert input

Couplings

  • INF ↔ ENE facility power
  • INF ↔ FIN programme funding
  • INF ↔ TRD licence rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • systems that do not submit to lists
  • specifications of planned systems

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.2Power, cooling and data centres

The five largest systems draw tens of megawatts. Efficiency leaders are small systems, and the wider data centre load is growing.

42.2MW

LineShine power1

73.282GFlops per watt

Green500 leader3

4.4%

US data centre electricity share, 202312

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power of large systems15.8 to 42.2 megawatts for the five largest1Reported
Efficiencyleader 73.282; El Capitan 60.94; LineShine 52.07 gigaflops per watt345Reported
Data centre energyUS 176 terawatt-hours in 2023; 2028 range of 6.7% to 12% of US electricity12Reported
Cooling waternot bound for large facilities9Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • WAT → INF cooling water
  • INF → CLI emissions

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • cooling-water use
  • facility energy on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.3Chips, memory and fabrication

Large systems depend on chips and memory made in a few places. Policy pages show large public programmes, and supply figures are not bound.

50USD billion

CHIPS and Science Act funding to Commerce, Public Law 117-16743

33EUR billion

public and private investment in EU first-of-a-kind facilities, over25

2023year

EU Chips Act in force on 21 September25

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
US chips programmesUSD 11 billion for research and USD 39 billion for incentives43Reported
EU chips programmes19 State aid decisions for first-of-a-kind facilities; Chips Act 2.0 proposed in June 202625Reported
Accelerator and memory supplyno volumes or concentration figures bound4325Expert input
Materialsno HPC-specific figure bound25Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → INF materials
  • TRD → INF licence rules
  • FIN → INF fabrication

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • accelerator and memory supply
  • fabrication capacity by country

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Public programmes carry the largest systems. Workforce figures are the thin part of the evidence.

1.8USD billion

Exascale Computing Project, 2016 to 202417

8.2EUR billion

EuroHPC budget, 2021 to 2027, at least11

950projects

NAIRR pilot research projects, more than22

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
US exascale programmeUSD 1.8 billion from 2016 to 2024; two GPU architectures proven17Reported
EuroHPCbudget of at least EUR 8.2 billion; EU contribution EUR 4.1 billion11Reported
Shared accessNAIRR pilot: more than 950 projects, 14 federal agencies, 26 non-governmental partners22Reported
WorkforceDOE Genesis page names a goal of 100,000 professionals over a decade26Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • HLT → INF workforce
  • GOV → FIN programme lines

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • public funding outside the US and EU
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.5Security, export controls and governance watch

Rules on advanced computing items are being adjusted in steps, and reporting rules for data centres are being drafted.

2026date

BIS timeline extended to 31 December13

500kW

IT power threshold in the EU reporting regulation, per a law firm summary34

2030target

FugakuNEXT operation, a plan14

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Export controlsauthorised designer timeline extended on 7 April 2026; guidance on D:5 headquartered entities in May 20261333Reported
Data centre reportingEU delegated regulation of 2024 sets reporting; rating scheme proposed in 2026 in draft3435Reported
StandardsMPI 5.0 in 2025; OpenMP 6.0 in 2024; OpenMP 6.1 draft in 20261516Reported
National platformsDOE Genesis Mission; UK compute plan; RIKEN FugakuNEXT262314Reported

Couplings

  • TRD → INF licence rules
  • GOV → ENE reporting
  • GOV → FIN programme lines

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of the 2023 US rule
  • EU delegated regulations from the primary text

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4TOP500 (ed.), LineShine Debuts at No. 1 as the TOP500 Enters a New Global Exascale Era (news release, 23 June 2026; LineShine, HPCG, HPL-MxP, Green500 values). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5TOP500 (ed.), Highlights, June 2026 (list totals, accelerator and processor shares, HPCG and HPL-MxP tables; the page gives some figures that differ from the list page). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, June 2026, 67th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, cores and power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (ed.), Frontier (system page; 1.6 exaflops peak; 74 cabinets; delivered 2021; the page value differs from the peak on the list page). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (ed.), compute systems (index page; Lux and Discovery labelled as introduced; no specifications). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 27Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ed.), The Genesis Mission (page; Lux and Discovery listed with one-line descriptions only). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argonne National Laboratory (ed.), Genesis Mission systems (Solstice and Equinox; reported plans of 100,000 and 10,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, vendor-stated AI performance figures), taken from search-result summaries that disagree on dates; the page returned an access error. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3TOP500 (ed.), Green500 list, June 2026 (list page; top five by gigaflops per watt). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), JUPITER launching Europe’s exascale era (news item, 5 September 2025; about 24,000 GH200 superchips; warm-water cooling; funding shares; power and budget not stated). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 43US Congress (ed.), CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, Division A, section 102 (statute text, enacted 9 August 2022; CHIPS for America Fund appropriations for fiscal years 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 50 billion, of which USD 39 billion for incentives and USD 11 billion for research). Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 25European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1781 in force 21 September 2023; 19 State aid decisions over EUR 33 billion; Chips Act 2.0 proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: Post-close, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America (programme page; USD 50 billion; USD 11 billion research and USD 39 billion incentives; awards of September and October 2026 listed). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Exascale Computing Project (ed.), project site (2016 to 2024; USD 1.8 billion; about 2,800 collaborators; concluded). US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), Discover EuroHPC JU (about page; budget of at least EUR 8.2 billion for 2021 to 2027; Council Regulations 2021/1173, 2024/1732 and 2026/150). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 22National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Pilot (ed.), NAIRR pilot site (more than 950 projects; 14 federal agencies; 26 non-governmental partners; Operations Center award of 1 September 2026). US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Energy (ed.), Genesis Mission (programme page; goal of 100,000 science and technology professionals over a decade; announcements dated August to October 2026; no systems named). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 13US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), BIS homepage (notice of 16 January 2025 on advanced computing integrated circuits; extension of 7 April 2026 to 31 December 2026; guidance of May 2026 on Country Group D:5 and Macau; full texts not opened). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission, Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1364 of 14 March 2024 on the first phase of the establishment of a common Union rating scheme for data centres (500 kW threshold, annual reporting by 15 May), taken from law firm summaries; EUR-Lex returned no content. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 14RIKEN (ed.), FugakuNEXT project with Fujitsu and NVIDIA (news item, 22 August 2025; MONAKA-X CPU, NVIDIA GPU; more than 5 times hardware performance; up to 100 times application performance in about 40 MW; more than 600 exaflops FP8 sparse; operation around 2030). RIKEN, Wako. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security, Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use (Federal Register, 25 October 2023), not retrieved; the page redirected. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Noerr (ed.), note of October 2026 on the proposal of 21 September 2026 for a delegated regulation on an EU data centre rating scheme with grades A to G from 2027, taken from search-result summaries; preparatory working draft (2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 15OpenMP Architecture Review Board (ed.), OpenMP specifications (index page; version 6.0 of November 2024; technical report 15 as a public comment draft of 6.1, July 2026). OpenMP ARB, Urbana. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 16MPI Forum (ed.), MPI documents (index page; MPI 5.0 voted through 5 June 2025; MPI 4.1 of 2 November 2023). Message Passing Interface Forum. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 23UK Government (ed.), AI Opportunities Action Plan (page; expand the AI Research Resource by at least 20 times by 2030; non-AI HPC and exascale flagged as unresolved; no budget figure). Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: HPC and Advanced Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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