Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the materials baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Minerals
    4. 2.4 Governance
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Water
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and it imposed, widened and partly suspended export controls on gallium and rare earths between 2023 and 2025.

Figure 2.1China share of world production, 2025
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Primary low-purity gallium (%)99
Natural graphite (%)82
Rare earth mine production, derived (%)69

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 202617. The rare earth value is derived as 270,000 ÷ 390,000 tonnes, method (3).

Implication

Supply of inputs for chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets depends on a few processing sites and on trade measures. The United States reported no domestic gallium production since 1987 and a net import reliance of 100%. China lifted its ban on gallium exports to the United States for one year in November 2025 and suspended its October 2025 rare earth controls for one year17.

What would move it

The end of the one-year suspensions in November 2026, new processing projects, and the EU benchmark progress reports would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    A 2023 study reports 2.2 million predicted crystal structures below the known stability line, built on 48,000 known stable crystals, and 736 of the stable structures were independently realised.510

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    An autonomous laboratory reports realising 41 of 58 target compounds in 17 days of continuous operation.6

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    Two 2024 critiques dispute the discovery claims: one finds scant evidence for compounds that are novel, credible and useful, and the other finds that about two thirds of the laboratory successes are likely known disordered phases.89

  4. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    A 2025 generative model reports structures more than twice as likely to be new and stable as earlier methods, with one synthesised structure within 20% of its property target; a company post states a training set of 608,000 stable materials.711

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

    Nature retracted a room-temperature superconductivity paper in 2022 and a second in 2023, and a 2023 Nature news report concluded that LK-99 is not a superconductor.141516

2.3Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005

    China produced an estimated 82% of world natural graphite in 2025, and the United States had no domestic production and a net import reliance of 100%.17

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

    China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production, and its export controls on gallium and rare earths were imposed, widened and partly suspended between 2023 and 2025.1724

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks of at least 10% of annual consumption from extraction, 40% from processing, 25% from recycling and no more than 65% from one third country.1841

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    The Commission adopted a voluntary safe and sustainable by design framework for chemicals and materials on 8 December 2022 and revised it in March 2026.1931

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    IARC assessed the carcinogenic hazard of carbon nanotubes, single-walled and multiwalled, for the first time in Monographs Volume 111, published in 2017.2039

2.6Water

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

    A metal-organic framework device harvested 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of material per day at 20% relative humidity, and a published comment found its efficiency far below existing alternatives.12131

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is reliance on predicted or claimed materials before independent synthesis, while the inputs to make them come from concentrated processing. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
  2. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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