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Risks and capability

Four materials risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT12-VER-001

    Verification gap for predicted materials

    Driver
    predictions outpace independent synthesis59
    Exposure
    research planning and users of shared databases
    Vulnerability
    disordered phases read as new compounds9
    Capacity
    independent synthesis and crystallography expertise8
    Cascade
    INF → DAT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT12-SUP-002

    Processing concentration and export controls

    Driver
    concentrated processing and changing trade measures1724
    Exposure
    chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets
    Vulnerability
    few processing sites; no domestic production in some markets
    Capacity
    EU benchmarks; new projects in several countries1718
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT12-SAF-003

    Nanomaterial hazard ahead of evidence

    Driver
    new engineered materials in use2025
    Exposure
    workers, consumers and environments near production
    Vulnerability
    definitions that differ by jurisdiction2526
    Capacity
    hazard assessment, reporting rules and design frameworks1927
    Cascade
    INF → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT12-CLM-004

    Claims outrun replication

    Driver
    high-profile claims on thin data141516
    Exposure
    investors, agencies and public debate
    Vulnerability
    headline reach exceeds correction reach
    Capacity
    independent replication; editorial correction1516
    Cascade
    INF → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for materials at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSEU safe and sustainable by design framework and raw materials benchmarks1819
Monitoring and observationEXISTSannual national mineral statistics17
Early warningLISTEDno common tracker of trade measures or discovery claims
Preparedness and planningEXISTSEU benchmarks and national programmes1821
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDstockpile data not consolidated here17
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a sudden input cut-off
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnot reviewed
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no event to recover from
AdaptationLISTEDmaterial substitution not reviewed
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceLISTEDno investment figure bound
Institutional coordinationEXISTSstandards committees and national programmes21222830
Technical infrastructureEXISTSshared databases and autonomous laboratories exist622
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps reported in general; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong peer-reviewed base and open critique589
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
  5. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 229 Nanotechnologies, technical committee, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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