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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

10 min read0 figures5 tables29 notesNR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Discovery, synthesis and verification
    2. 8.2 Production footprint, safety and applications
    3. 8.3 Critical minerals, components and supply chain
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Safety, regulation and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Discovery, synthesis and verification

New materials are now proposed by learning models and made by robots. Evidence is strongest where independent synthesis exists, and weakest where claims rest on company posts or unreconciled results.

2.2million

predicted structures below the convex hull5

736structures

independently realised5

41 of 58targets

autonomous laboratory, 17 days6

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Computational prediction2.2 million predicted structures; 736 independently realised510Reported
Generative designstructures more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one synthesised example within 20% of target711Reported
Autonomous synthesis41 of 58 targets reported realised in 17 days6Reported
Independent critiquescant evidence of novel, credible and useful compounds; about two thirds likely known disordered phases89Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ DAT shared databases
  • AIC → INF learning models
  • MIN → INF inputs

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • independent synthesis on a common basis
  • reconciliation of the critique and the original

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Production footprint, safety and applications

Engineered nanomaterials are in medicines, devices and water technology. Hazard assessment covers a few classes, and the energy and water use of production is not bound on a common basis.

2017volume

IARC assessed carbon nanotubes20

2.8litres per kg per day

MOF water harvesting at 20% humidity12

2023prize

mRNA vaccines needed carrier lipid systems3

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Carbon nanotubesIARC Monographs Volume 111 assessed single-walled and multiwalled types for the first time2039Reported
Medical carriersthe 2023 medicine prize cites carrier lipid systems for mRNA delivery340Reported
Water harvestinga MOF device reached 2.8 litres per kg per day; a comment disputes its efficiency1213Reported
Production energy and waternot published on a common basis in the sources read19Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → HLT hazard before evidence
  • INF → WAT water harvesting
  • INF → ENE production energy

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • hazard evidence by material class
  • energy and water use of production

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Critical minerals, components and supply chain

Advanced materials depend on graphite, gallium, rare earths and other inputs whose production and processing are concentrated and whose trade measures changed in 2025.

82%

China share of natural graphite production17

99%

China share of primary low-purity gallium17

69%

China share of rare earth mine production, derived17

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Natural graphiteno US production; net import reliance 100%; duties on anode material17Reported
Galliumimport unit value USD 580 per kg in 2025, about 30% above 2024; ban to the US lifted for one year17Reported
Rare earthscontrols tightened in April and widened in October 2025; October measures suspended for one year17Reported
Processing capacityby country not bound; secondary summaries differ24Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → INF inputs
  • TRD → MIN export controls
  • GOV → MIN benchmarks

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • processing capacity by country
  • stocks and recycling volumes

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Investment and workforce are the thin parts of the evidence. What exists is public programmes and field milestones, not totals.

2010prize

graphene4

2023prize

quantum dots2

2025prize

metal-organic frameworks1

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Public programmesthe NNI coordinates over thirty federal departments and agencies; the MGI aims at discovery twice as fast2122Reported
Field milestonesNobel Prizes for graphene, quantum dots and metal-organic frameworks124Reported
Programme totalsnot bound; the programme pages carry no totals3334Expert input
Workforceno figure bound22Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • HLT → INF workforce
  • GOV → FIN programme funding

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • public funding totals
  • private investment
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Safety, regulation and governance watch

The nearest effect of nanotechnology on other systems is regulatory: definitions, registration, reporting and design frameworks. Hazard evidence and definitions differ by jurisdiction.

40%

EU 2030 processing benchmark18

2022framework

safe and sustainable by design adopted19

2017volume

IARC nanotube assessment20

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Raw materials lawEU Critical Raw Materials Act benchmarks for 20301841Reported
Design frameworkvoluntary; adopted 8 December 2022 and revised March 202619Reported
DefinitionEU recommendation of 2022 uses a 50% number-based test, from secondary summaries2531Reported
Registration and reportingnanoform registration under REACH; nanoscale reporting under TSCA2627Reported

Couplings

  • INF → HLT hazard before evidence
  • GOV → MIN benchmarks
  • GOV → TRD trade measures

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of national rules
  • hazard coverage by class

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hou, X., Zaks, T., Langer, R. and Dong, Y., Lipid nanoparticles for mRNA delivery, Nature Reviews Materials 6, 1078 to 1094, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
  16. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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