Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, materials across ten clusters
    4. B.4 Cluster card: graphite anode material supply chain
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the materials edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Predicted structures below the convex hull2.2million2023Reported5
Known stable crystals before the study48,000crystals2023Reported5
Structures independently realised736structures2023Reported5
Stable predictions offered to the research community380,000materials2023Reported10
Targets set for the autonomous laboratory58compounds2023Reported6
Targets reported realised41compounds2023Reported6
Continuous operation17days2023Reported6
Training set of the generative model, company post608,000stable materials2025Reported11
Property of the one synthesised structure against target20% within2025Reported7
China share of natural graphite production82%2025Reported17
US net import reliance, natural graphite100%2025Reported17
China share of primary low-purity gallium99%2025Reported17
US gallium metal import unit value580USD per kg2025Reported17
World rare earth mine production390,000tonnes2025Reported17
EU 2030 benchmark, processing40%2030 planScenario18
EU 2030 benchmark, recycling25%2030 planScenario18
Water harvested by the framework device at 20% humidity2.8litres per kg per day2017Reported12
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • INF
  • MIN
  • TRD
  • DAT
  • HLT
  • ENE
  • WAT
  • FIN
  • CLI
  • FOO
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Nature paper on predicted structures5peer-reviewed journalglobal2023one-offdiscovery
Nature paper on an autonomous laboratory6peer-reviewed journalone laboratory2023one-offsynthesis
Critiques89peer-reviewed journalsmethod2024one-offverification
Generative model paper7peer-reviewed journalmethod2025one-offdesign
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries17national geological surveyglobal2025annualsupply
European Commission pages1819EU institutionEU2024 to 2026continuouspolicy
IARC Monographs Volume 11120intergovernmental agencyglobal2017periodichazard
Nobel Prize press releases1234prize committeesglobal2010 to 2025annualfield milestones
Company posts1011vendorsglobal2023 to 2025per eventvendor claims
National programme pages2122national programmesUS2026continuousprogrammes

B.3Regional reading, materials across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of materials supply and safety in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, materials across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americaimport reliance for graphite and gallium; discovery laboratoriessupply, discoveryUSGS17; Nature56
South Americamineral producers; processing not boundsupplyregional evidence (not bound)
Europeraw materials law; design framework; hazard assessmentpolicy, safetyEuropean Commission1819; IARC20
Eurasiaprocessing and export controlssupplyregional evidence (not bound)
Middle East and North Africaprocessing projects announced; not boundsupplyregional evidence (not bound)
Africacobalt and manganese export measuressupply, tradeUSGS17
South Asianational programmes; not boundresearch, skillsregional evidence (not bound)
East Asiagraphite, gallium and rare earth production and processingsupply, tradeUSGS17
ASEANgraphite processing projects and rare earth sovereignty policysupplyUSGS17
Oceania-Pacificmineral producers; research programmessupply, researchregional evidence (not bound)

B.4Cluster card: graphite anode material supply chain

  • supply chain
  • graphite
  • anode material
  • single point
Systems in view
natural graphite mining, purification, spherical graphite and anode material
Defining events
US duties on Chinese anode material in 2025; Chinese export growth of spherical graphite17
Couplings
MIN → INF electrodes; TRD → MIN trade measures
Capability evidence
new spherical graphite plants reported outside China17
Gaps
processing capacity by country; stocks; recycling volumes
Agenda items
M-02 · M-05

China produced an estimated 82% of world natural graphite in 2025, and the United States produced none [17].

SUPPLY

Graphite concentration

The US Department of Commerce set preliminary antidumping duties of 93.50% on Chinese graphite active anode material in 2025 [17].

TRADE

Anode material duties

Spherical graphite plants were reported in Indonesia and under study in several other countries; none is documented at scale here [17].

RESPONSE

New plants

B.5How countries appear in the materials edition

Countries enter the materials edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the materials edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site17 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
  7. 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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