- Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
Advanced materials and nanotechnology matter to the Nexus programme in three ways. They are a discovery system, in which computation and robots now propose and make new compounds. They are a supply chain that rests on a few processing countries and on export controls. They are a safety question, because engineered nanomaterials reach use before hazard evidence is complete. The discovery evidence is large and contested. A 2023 study reports 2.2 million predicted structures below the known stability line, of which 736 were independently realised5. An autonomous laboratory reports 41 of 58 target compounds made in 17 days6. Two 2024 critiques find that these claims do not show new, credible and useful materials, and that about two thirds of the laboratory successes are likely known disordered phases89. A 2025 generative model reports structures more than twice as likely to be new and stable, with one synthesised example within 20% of its target7. The supply evidence is firmer. China produced an estimated 82% of natural graphite and 99% of primary low-purity gallium in 2025, and the United States relied on imports for all of both17. The European Union set 2030 benchmarks of 10%, 40% and 25% for extraction, processing and recycling18. Superconductivity claims have been retracted or refuted three times since 2022141516. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no discovery and ranks no country, company or laboratory.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the materials baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Some are: 736 structures were independently realised, a small count against 2.2 million predicted.5
Are predicted materials being made?Reported
It reported 41 of 58 targets; critiques dispute how many are new.689
Did a robot discover new materials?Reported
One synthesised structure came within 20% of its target; one result is not a trend.7
Does generative design work?Reported
China produced most natural graphite and almost all primary gallium in 2025.17
Who supplies the inputs?Reported
Benchmarks for extraction, processing, recycling and diversification by 2030.18
What does Europe require?Reported
IARC assessed carbon nanotubes in 2017; coverage of other classes is not bound.20
Are nanomaterials assessed for harm?Reported
Not on a common basis in the sources read.19
Is the footprint of production known?Expert input
Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis. SCN-XT12-VER-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006
China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and it imposed, widened and partly suspended export controls on gallium and rare earths between 2023 and 2025.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Primary low-purity gallium (%) | 99 | |
| Natural graphite (%) | 82 | |
| Rare earth mine production, derived (%) | 69 |
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 202617. The rare earth value is derived as 270,000 ÷ 390,000 tonnes, method (3).
Supply of inputs for chips, optoelectronics, batteries and magnets depends on a few processing sites and on trade measures. The United States reported no domestic gallium production since 1987 and a net import reliance of 100%. China lifted its ban on gallium exports to the United States for one year in November 2025 and suspended its October 2025 rare earth controls for one year17.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading advanced materials as a discovery system with a verification gap, a supply chain with concentrated processing, and a safety question with thin coverage.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the materials story arrives as a headline about a breakthrough, a shortage or a hazard.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Private investment was not retrieved, supply depends on a few processing sites, and verification has costs that fall on research users.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Materials are well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the 2026 state of advanced materials and nanotechnology as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.
What it is not
Not a forecast of any discovery, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor, product or laboratory, or an assessment of any programme. Hazard classification, trade measures and standards are decisions of competent authorities.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 materials edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
- 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back