Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
INF · Discovery
Structures predicted below the convex hull
2.2millionof which 736 independently realised.
Reported2023Nature5
INF · Synthesis
Targets realised by the autonomous laboratory
41of 5817 days of operation; disputed in 2024.
Reported2023Nature6
MIN · Supply
China share of world natural graphite production
82%US net import reliance is 100%.
Reported2025USGS17
MIN · Supply
China share of primary low-purity gallium
99%export ban to the US lifted for one year in 2025.
Reported2025USGS17
GOV · Policy
EU 2030 benchmark for processing in the EU
40%extraction 10%, recycling 25%, one-country cap 65%.
Reported2030 targetEC18
SYS · Cross-system
Superconductivity claims retracted or refuted
3claimssulfur hydride, lutetium hydride and LK-99.
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through materials, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries materials risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | A metal-organic framework device harvested 2.8 litres per kilogram per day at 20% humidity; its efficiency is disputed. | INF → WAT | Reported EQL 2 |
| ENE | Production energy is unpublished; perovskite and silicon tandem cell contacts lose conductivity at elevated temperature. | INF → ENE | Reported EQL 2 |
| FOO | No documented coupling at baseline; precision agriculture is listed among national programme applications21. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| HLT | Carbon nanotubes were assessed by IARC; mRNA vaccines needed carrier lipid systems. | INF ↔ HLT | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | No documented coupling at baseline; ecotoxicity evidence by material class is not bound. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| CLI | Uses in solar cells, storage and carbon capture are claimed; no emissions figure is bound. | INF → CLI | Expert input EQL 1 |
| INF | The core system: 2.2 million predictions, 736 independent syntheses, disputed verification. | the core system | Reported EQL 3 |
| FIN | No private investment figure was retrieved; public programmes coordinate agencies. | FIN → INF | Expert input EQL 1 |
| DAT | Materials databases and learned models are shared resources that carry unverified entries. | INF ↔ DAT | Reported EQL 2 |
| AIC | Machine-learning models are the main compute coupling in discovery. | AIC → INF | Reported EQL 3 |
| MIN | Processing concentration of graphite, gallium and rare earths is the core coupling. | MIN → INF | Reported EQL 4 |
| TRD | Export controls on gallium and rare earths were widened and partly suspended in 2025. | TRD → MIN | Reported EQL 4 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on materials, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | materials couple to minerals, trade and safety evidence | verification before reliance | THIN |
| GS-01 | Water | water harvesting claim is disputed1213 | field performance | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | tandem cell stability limit23 | production footprint | THIN |
| GS-03 | Food | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | carbon nanotube assessment20; mRNA carriers3 | hazard before evidence | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | no investment figure bound | unverified claims priced as results | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | access to processing and skills | widening gaps | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | footprint at scale not bound | energy demand of production | THIN |
| GS-08 | Disaster | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | graphite, gallium and magnet inputs17 | single-country dependence | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | shared databases and models1122 | unverified entries reused | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | EU raw materials law and design framework1819 | trade measures and definitions | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | strong peer-reviewed base and open critique5689 | common verification basis | GOOD |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
- 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Nature (ed.), LK-99 isn’t a superconductor: how science sleuths solved the mystery, Nature 620, 705, 2023 (news article; the page was opened but only its headline and summary were readable behind the access wall). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride (published 26 September 2022; the original paper appeared on 14 October 2020; all authors disagreed with the decision). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Nature (ed.), Retraction Note: Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride, Nature, 2023 (publication record read; the note text was not available in the record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back