Readings from the other desks
The materials baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 materials readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading advanced materials as a discovery system with a verification gap, a supply chain with concentrated processing, and a safety question with thin coverage. Evidence is strongest for production statistics and single papers, and weakest for verification rates, hazard coverage and footprint.
INF-001 · INF-003 · MIN-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the materials story arrives as a headline about a breakthrough, a shortage or a hazard. The baseline asks that public debate separate predictions from syntheses, and claims from corrections.
INF-003 · INF-011 · MIN-005
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Private investment was not retrieved, supply depends on a few processing sites, and verification has costs that fall on research users. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
MIN-006 · INF-003
NEXUS
Synthesis
Materials are well described by single results and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind verification rates, map processing capacity and test the claim-reliance pathway before the next headline.
SYS-012 · M-01 · M-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for materials. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Advanced materials are a discovery system, a supply chain and a safety question. The first is fast and contested, the second is slow and physical, and the third is thinly measured. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and complacency.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Three stories, one field
A predicted structure, a robot-made powder and a press post carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before counts of new materials are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate predictions, syntheses and claims
Mining shares are published. Processing, refining and component capacity by country are not, and they decide where a restriction bites.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Processing is the blind spot
Hazard evidence arrives after use unless it is built into design. Voluntary frameworks, definitions and reporting rules are the first tools, and their coverage is uneven.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Safety is part of design
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 materials readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Materials risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Raw Materials Act1841 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | supply benchmarks |
| Nanomaterial definition2531 | European Commission | EU | PUBLISHED 2022 | definition |
| Nanoform registration under REACH26 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | registration |
| Safe and sustainable by design framework19 | European Commission | EU | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | design framework |
| Nanoscale reporting rule under TSCA27 | US EPA | US | IN FORCE | reporting |
| OECD programme on manufactured nanomaterials28 | OECD | OECD members | PUBLISHED | testing guidance |
| ISO/TS 80004-129 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | vocabulary |
| ISO/TC 229 on nanotechnologies30 | ISO | global | COMMITTEE ACTIVE | standards programme |
| IARC Monographs Volume 11120 | IARC | global | PUBLISHED 2017 | hazard assessment |
| Materials Genome Initiative22 | US federal agencies | US | PROGRAMME ACTIVE | discovery infrastructure |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers materials assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about advanced materials and nanotechnology as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals; standards bodies and agencies; strategies; supply statistics and company posts
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant et al.5 | journal article | 2023 | supports | predicted structures |
| Szymanski et al.6 | journal article | 2023 | supports | autonomous synthesis |
| Zeni et al.7 | journal article | 2025 | supports | generative design |
| Cheetham and Seshadri8 | journal article | 2024 | disputes | novelty and utility |
| Leeman et al.9 | journal article | 2024 | disputes | phase identification |
| Jain et al.38 | journal article | 2013 | framework | materials database |
| Zhang et al.23 | journal article | 2025 | context | tandem cell stability |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novoselov et al.35 | journal article | 2004 | framework | graphene |
| Li et al.36 | journal article | 1999 | framework | metal-organic frameworks |
| Iijima37 | journal article | 1991 | framework | carbon nanotubes |
| Brus42 | journal article | 1984 | framework | quantum dots |
| Poland et al.39 | journal article | 2008 | context | nanotube hazard |
| Hou et al.40 | journal article | 2021 | context | lipid nanoparticles |
| Kim et al.12 | journal article | 2017 | supports | water harvesting |
| Bui, Chua and Gordon13 | journal comment | 2017 | disputes | water harvesting efficiency |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Raw Materials Act page18 | European Commission | 2024 | supports | benchmarks |
| Regulation (EU) 2024/125241 | European Union | 2024 | context | legal text |
| Safe and sustainable by design pages19 | European Commission | 2026 | supports | design framework |
| Nanomaterial definition25 | European Commission | 2022 | context | definition |
| IARC Monographs Volume 11120 | IARC | 2017 | supports | hazard assessment |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral Commodity Summaries 202617 | USGS | 2026 | supports | production and trade |
| Critical Minerals Outlook 202624 | IEA | 2026 | context | processing concentration |
| Discovery post10 | Google DeepMind | 2023 | context | vendor claim |
| MatterGen post11 | Microsoft Research | 2025 | context | vendor claim |
| Nobel Prize press releases1234 | prize committees | 2010 to 2025 | context | field milestones |
| National programme pages2122 | US programmes | 2026 | context | programmes |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 18European Commission (ed.), Critical Raw Materials Act (policy page: 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and no more than 65% from a single third country). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, 2024; the legal text was not retrieved, the policy page was read instead [18]. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Joint Research Centre (ed.), Guidance on the implementation of the Commission Recommendation on the definition of nanomaterial, EUR 31452 EN, 2023, taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Ispra. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19European Commission (eds.), Safe and sustainable by design (policy page, revised March 2026) and news article of 8 December 2022 on the Recommendation. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Chemical substances when manufactured or processed as nanoscale materials, TSCA reporting and recordkeeping requirements, final rule, January 2017, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. EPA, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TS 80004-1, Nanotechnologies: vocabulary, part 1, core terms, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 229 Nanotechnologies, technical committee, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back
- 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Zeni, C. et al., A generative model for inorganic materials design, Nature, 2025, pages 624 to 632 (abstract record read: more than twice as likely to be new and stable; one structure synthesised within 20% of target; first published 16 January 2025). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Cheetham, A.K. and Seshadri, R., Artificial intelligence driving materials discovery? Perspective on the article Scaling Deep Learning for Materials Discovery, Chemistry of Materials, 2024, pages 3490 to 3495 (abstract record read: scant evidence for compounds that fulfil novelty, credibility and utility). American Chemical Society, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jain, A. et al., Commentary: The Materials Project, a materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation, APL Materials 1, 011002, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Zhang, B. et al., A cross-linked molecular contact for stable operation of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells, Science, 2025, pages 837 to 842 (abstract record read: resistance of conventional monomeric contacts rises about sixfold at elevated temperature). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Novoselov, K.S. et al., Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films, Science 306, 666 to 669, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Li, H., Eddaoudi, M., O’Keeffe, M. and Yaghi, O.M., Design and synthesis of an exceptionally stable and highly porous metal-organic framework, Nature 402, 276 to 279, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Iijima, S., Helical microtubules of graphitic carbon, Nature 354, 56 to 58, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brus, L.E., Electron-electron and electron-hole interactions in small semiconductor crystallites: the size dependence of the lowest excited electronic state, Journal of Chemical Physics 80, 4403 to 4409, 1984, cited from memory. Observation year 1984. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poland, C.A. et al., Carbon nanotubes introduced into the abdominal cavity of mice show asbestos-like pathogenicity in a pilot study, Nature Nanotechnology 3, 423 to 428, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hou, X., Zaks, T., Langer, R. and Dong, Y., Lipid nanoparticles for mRNA delivery, Nature Reviews Materials 6, 1078 to 1094, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Kim, H. et al., Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science 356, 430 to 434, 2017 (abstract record read: 2.8 litres of water per kilogram of MOF per day at relative humidity as low as 20%). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Bui, D.T., Chua, K.J. and Gordon, J.M., Comment on Water harvesting from air with metal-organic frameworks powered by natural sunlight, Science, 2017, eaao0791 (abstract record read; the authors of the original paper published a response, eaao3139, that rejects the comparison). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Google DeepMind (ed.), Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning (company blog post, 29 November 2023; states 2.2 million new crystals, 380,000 stable, 736 independently created). Google DeepMind, London. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11Microsoft Research (ed.), MatterGen: a new paradigm of materials design with generative AI (company blog post; states a training set of 608,000 stable materials). Microsoft, Redmond. Vendor announcement, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025, awarded to Kitagawa, Robson and Yaghi for the development of metal-organic frameworks (8 October 2025; uses named: harvesting water from desert air, capturing carbon dioxide, separating PFAS from water). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023, awarded to Bawendi, Brus and Yekimov for the discovery and synthesis of quantum dots (4 October 2023). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2023, awarded to Karikó and Weissman for nucleoside base modifications that enabled mRNA vaccines (2 October 2023; the text notes that delivery required carrier lipid systems). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (ed.), Press release: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010, awarded to Geim and Novoselov for experiments on the two-dimensional material graphene (5 October 2010). NobelPrize.org, Stockholm. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back