Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Materials are a discovery claim, a supply chain and a safety question
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Reliance on claimed materials before independent synthesis
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Share of targets reported realised by the autonomous laboratory | 41 ÷ 58 | about 71% |
| (2) | Share of 380,000 stable predictions independently realised | 736 ÷ 380,000 | about 0.2% |
| (3) | China share of rare earth mine production, 2025 estimate | 270,000 ÷ 390,000 | about 69% |
| (4) | Change in US gallium metal imports, 2024 to 2025 | 25,000 ÷ 11,000 | about 2.3 times |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Materials System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT12-MATERIALS · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent advanced materials and nanotechnology as a discovery system coupled to critical mineral supply, trade, safety evidence, energy, finance and workforce
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-MATERIALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 materials annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Materials System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted structures | 2023 | Nov 2023 | one-off | independent synthesis reports |
| Autonomous laboratory | 2023 | Nov 2023 | one-off | replication |
| Critiques of discovery claims | 2024 | Mar and Apr 2024 | one-off | author responses |
| Generative model | 2025 | Jan 2025 | one-off | further validation |
| Mineral commodity summaries | 2025 | 2025 data, 2026 edition | annual | 2027 edition |
| EU raw materials law | 2024 | 2024 | periodic | 2030 benchmarks |
| Design framework | 2022 · 2026 | Dec 2022 · Mar 2026 | periodic | testing feedback |
| Carbon nanotube assessment | 2017 | 2017 | periodic | new evaluation |
| Superconductivity retractions | 2022 to 2023 | Sep 2022 · 2023 | per event | new claims |
| Water harvesting | 2017 | Apr to Dec 2017 | one-off | field data |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery | PARTIAL | independent synthesis on a common basis |
| Supply | GOOD | processing capacity by country |
| Governance | PARTIAL | text of national rules |
| Safety | THIN | hazard evidence by material class |
| Footprint | THIN | energy and water use of production |
| Investment | THIN | private and public totals |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Applications | THIN | deployment and market data |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Independent synthesis of predicted materials on a common basis | peer-reviewed replication papers and data releases | only the count of 736 reported at publication was read5 |
| Share of autonomous laboratory results that are new compounds | author responses and independent re-analysis | critique and original disagree; no reconciliation found69 |
| Processing and refining capacity of critical minerals by country | IEA outlook, industry and trade statistics | the IEA outlook could not be opened; secondary summaries give figures that differ24 |
| Hazard and exposure evidence by nanomaterial class | IARC, OECD programme, national agencies | only the Volume 111 summary page was read; its classifications were not opened2028 |
| Energy and water use of advanced materials production | life cycle studies, producers | no common-basis study retrieved |
| Text of the EU nanomaterial definition and the REACH nanoform rules | Official Journal texts | official texts not opened; secondary summaries only2526 |
| Best confirmed solar cell efficiencies for perovskite devices | national laboratory efficiency chart | host not reachable from the session32 |
| Critical materials assessment of the US Department of Energy | department assessment | page not found at the address tried34 |
| Public funding totals for materials and nanotechnology programmes | budget supplements, ministries, OECD | not retrieved; programme pages carry no totals212233 |
| Private investment in advanced materials | market monitors, company reports | not retrieved; no figure used |
| Workforce size and skills gaps | national statistics, surveys | not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED |
| Deployment and market data for nanomaterial applications | agencies, industry bodies | not retrieved; no figure used |
| Capability rungs beyond standards and planning | agencies, operators, laboratories | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Published in Nature 624 (2023) by a company research group. One-off study. Role: binds INF-001. Coverage: inorganic crystals; the abstract record was read, the full text was not.
EVD-XT12-001
Scaling deep learning for materials discovery5
Issued by the US Geological Survey for 2025 data. Annual. Role: binds MIN-005, MIN-006 and the supply tiles. Coverage: more than 90 minerals and materials, with a US focus.
EVD-XT12-002
Mineral Commodity Summaries 202617
| Dimension | EVD-XT12-001 | EVD-XT12-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | inorganic crystals; one method | more than 90 minerals; US perspective |
| Timeliness | one-off; 2023 | annual; 2025 data in the 2026 edition |
| Revision | critique published in 2024 | new edition each year |
| Method transparency | methods published; data release stated | survey and trade data compiled by a survey |
| External validation | peer review and open critique | agency review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CRMA | Critical Raw Materials Act |
| GNoME | Graph Networks for Materials Exploration |
| IARC | International Agency for Research on Cancer |
| MGI | Materials Genome Initiative |
| MOF | metal-organic framework |
| NNI | National Nanotechnology Initiative |
| nm | nanometre |
| REACH | Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals |
| RH | relative humidity |
| SSbD | safe and sustainable by design |
| TSCA | Toxic Substances Control Act |
| USGS | US Geological Survey |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT12-VER-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major materials processing and discovery clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: net import reliance
- Construct
- share of apparent consumption of a commodity that is met by imports rather than by domestic production
- Unit
- percent of apparent consumption
- Method
- imports minus exports, adjusted for stock changes, divided by apparent consumption
- Source
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 202617
- Uncertainty
- trade data and stock estimates are revised in later editions
- Known limits
- a United States measure; says nothing about processing capacity in other countries
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5Merchant, A., Batzner, S., Schoenholz, S.S., Aykol, M., Cheon, G. and Cubuk, E.D., Scaling deep learning for materials discovery, Nature 624, 80 to 85, 2023 (abstract record read: 48,000 known stable crystals; 2.2 million structures below the convex hull; 736 independently realised; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Szymanski, N.J. et al., An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of novel materials, Nature 624, 86 to 91, 2023 (abstract record read: 41 compounds from 58 targets in 17 days; the full text was not read). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Leeman, J., Liu, Y., Stiles, J., Lee, S.B., Bhatt, P., Schoop, L.M. and Palgrave, R.G., Challenges in high-throughput inorganic materials prediction and autonomous synthesis, PRX Energy 3, 011002, 2024 (abstract read on a public repository page: 43 products examined; about two thirds of claimed successes likely known disordered phases). American Physical Society, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (refining concentration and export controls), taken from search-result summaries that differ on the top-country shares; the report page returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20International Agency for Research on Cancer (ed.), Some Nanomaterials and Some Fibres, IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Volume 111, 2017 (publication page: first assessment of single-walled and multiwalled carbon nanotubes; classifications were not read). IARC, Lyon. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Working Party on Manufactured Nanomaterials programme and test guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an automated-access block. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Commission Recommendation of 10 June 2022 on the definition of nanomaterial, 2022/C 229/01 (50% number-based test; replaces the 2011 text), taken from search-result summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2018/1881 amending the REACH annexes for nanoforms, applying from 2020, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart, cited from memory; the host was not reachable from the session and no figure is used. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Critical Materials Assessment, 2023, cited from memory; the page address tried was not found. DOE, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21National Nanotechnology Coordination Office (ed.), About the National Nanotechnology Initiative (programme page: over thirty federal departments, independent agencies and commissions). NNCO, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Materials Genome Initiative (ed.), MGI home page (programme page: a federal multi-agency initiative for discovering, manufacturing and deploying advanced materials twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost). US Government, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graphene Flagship (ed.), programme about page; the page returned no readable text and no figure is used. Graphene Flagship, Gothenburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (full report downloaded and read for natural graphite, gallium, rare earths and the foreign trade section; doi 10.3133/mcs2026). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.3133/mcs2026back