Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four additive manufacturing risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table18 notesNR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Additive manufacturing is production infrastructure that is still being qualified
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Defence demand outruns part acceptance and supply
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT13-INF-001

    Part acceptance limits production growth

    Driver
    defence and aerospace demand for qualified parts710
    Exposure
    long-lead castings and forgings being replaced
    Vulnerability
    part acceptance by part is slow; process monitoring has open gaps15
    Capacity
    standards, benchmarks and reference models111213
    Cascade
    INF → GOV, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. InferredEQL 2RSK-XT13-MIN-002

    Powder and alloy supply chokepoint

    Driver
    concentrated alloy and powder supply and export controls2533
    Exposure
    metal machine users in aerospace and defence
    Vulnerability
    few qualified powder sources per alloy; volumes not bound
    Capacity
    powder capacity expansions reported by suppliers33
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-XT13-FIN-003

    Machine-maker consolidation and failure

    Driver
    weak machine sales and losses345
    Exposure
    users depending on one maker for support and parts
    Vulnerability
    closed software and qualified settings tied to one machine
    Capacity
    service providers and materials sellers grew2
    Cascade
    FIN → INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 2RSK-XT13-GOV-004

    Fragmented controls and digital file exposure

    Driver
    export controls on machines and files2122
    Exposure
    research collaboration and supply chains
    Vulnerability
    intangible transfer of build files is hard to control21
    Capacity
    strategies, controls and standards102211
    Cascade
    GOV → INF, TRD
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for additive manufacturing at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSsafety guidance for powder handling published1920
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of part acceptance rates or scrap
Early warningLISTEDno consolidated watch on powder or machine supply
Preparedness and planningEXISTSDoD strategy and Navy planning107
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDpowder reserves are not documented
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a loss of a machine maker or powder source
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDspare parts by additive route are early7
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no event to recover from
AdaptationEXISTSpart acceptance of processes rather than parts is under discussion7
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceLISTEDmachine-maker finance is weak345
Institutional coordinationEXISTSstandards committees and defence programmes1110
Technical infrastructureEXISTSbenchmark data and reference models1213
WorkforceLISTEDa 250,000-worker Navy need is stated, no additive figure bound8
Research capacityADEQUATEactive benchmark and preprint base121516
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7Jones, M. (NAVSUP Weapon Systems Support), Shattering bottlenecks: NAVSUP WSS partners with DLA and NAVSEA on submarine advanced manufacturing (official release via the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, 30 June 2026; nearly 120 additive parts in development, 20 installed, more than 1,400 cumulative days of delay removed, lead times cut by up to 70% for some components; not independently audited). US Navy, Mechanicsburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10OSD ManTech Program Office (ed.), DoD additive manufacturing strategy (article page of the Defense Systems Information Analysis Center dated 1 March 2021; strategy released January 2021 by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; the page lists no figures; the strategy document itself was not opened). Defense Systems Information Analysis Center, Belcamp. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15Chen, L. et al., In-situ process monitoring and adaptive quality enhancement in laser additive manufacturing: a critical review, arXiv:2404.13673, submitted 21 April 2024 (abstract page read; accepted to the Journal of Manufacturing Systems). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11NIST (ed.), Additive manufacturing standards (program page, updated 6 August 2026; ASTM F42, ISO/TC 261; ISO/ASTM 52911-1 and 52911-2 of 2019; ISO/ASTM 52922; work items WK72938, WK75184, WK78224, WK83109 in development). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12NIST (ed.), AM-Bench (program page; 2025 benchmarks 8 metal and 1 polymer sets; 85 challenge submissions; conference November 2025; AM Bench 2028 in planning). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13Gibbons, D.W. and Witherell, P.W., A reference activity model for additive manufacturing: powder bed fusion, NIST AMS 100-60, July 2024 (front matter and abstract read). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026; export controls and price moves for tungsten and other minerals, taken from search-result summaries that differ on some details; no figure used in copy). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Continuum Powders (ed.), blog on powder supply bottlenecks for advanced manufacturing, October 2025, taken from a search summary; supplier commentary, weak evidence. Continuum Powders, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3Stratasys Ltd. (ed.), Stratasys releases fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results (company release, 5 March 2026; revenue USD 551.1 million against USD 572.5 million in 2024; GAAP net loss USD 104.3 million). Stratasys, Rehovot and Eden Prairie. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 43D Systems Corporation (ed.), 3D Systems reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results (company release, 9 March 2026; revenue USD 386.9 million, down 12%; Healthcare Solutions USD 179.6 million; Industrial Solutions USD 207.3 million). 3D Systems, Rock Hill. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5Nano Dimension Ltd. (ed.), Annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (first 100,000 characters read; Desktop Metal Chapter 11 filing on 28 July 2025; Markforged acquisition closed 25 April 2025; revenue tables not read). Nano Dimension, Waltham. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Voulpiotis, F. (3Dnatives), Wohlers Report 2026: growth continues, but caution defines the AM market (trade article, 17 February 2026; weak evidence: a trade summary of a commercial report; reports 2025 revenue USD 24.231 billion, up 10.9%, services up 15.5% with 48% share, machine sales up 3.6%, Asia-Pacific up 19.8%, Europe and the Americas up 9%). 3Dnatives, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 21Brockmann, K. and Bauer, S., 3D printing and missile technology controls, SIPRI Background Paper, November 2017 (summary page read; machines, feedstock and digital build files). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 223DPrint.com (ed.), US Department of Commerce issues new export controls on metal additive manufacturing (trade article, 18 September 2024; interim final rule; ECCN 2B910; comments due 5 November 2024; author analysis on scope; secondary source, weak evidence). 3DPrint.com, Chicago. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 19NIOSH (ed.), Additive manufacturing (manufacturing sector page, dated 16 July 2026; hazards named: inhalation of powders, skin contact, fire and explosion, mechanical and ergonomic injury). National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 20American Industrial Hygiene Association (ed.), NIOSH evaluates metals exposures at manufacturing facility (news item, 11 September 2025, on a NIOSH health hazard evaluation dated February 2025 with visits in March and May 2023; secondary summary, the evaluation itself was not opened). AIHA, Falls Church. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8Maritime Industrial Base Program (ed.), Maritime Industrial Base Program highlights workforce mission at Virginia Tech (official release via the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, event 18 September 2025; need for 250,000 skilled workers over a decade; Columbia-class and Virginia-class output goals for 2028). US Navy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 16Bhagat, K. and Rudraraju, S., A numerical investigation of dimensionless numbers characterising meltpool morphology of the laser powder bed fusion process, arXiv:2211.06312, submitted 11 November 2022 (abstract page read; simulation study). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Additive and Advanced Manufacturing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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