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Defence demand outruns part acceptance and supply

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Additive manufacturing is production infrastructure that is still being qualified
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Defence demand outruns part acceptance and supply
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
defence and aerospace orders rise faster than qualified powder, standards and skilled operators
Analogues
the 2025 machine-maker failures and the 2024 export rule522
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    GOV → INF

    defence orders pull additive parts into production lines

    2026

  2. 2

    INF → MIN

    demand presses on qualified powder for a few alloys

    2026

  3. 3

    FIN → INF

    a machine maker exits and qualified settings are stranded

    2025

  4. 4

    INF → HLT

    powder handling scales faster than exposure controls

    2025

  5. 5

    TRD → INF

    export controls and national rules diverge

    2024

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    part acceptance shifts from parts to processes

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01 would travel through Additive and Advanced Manufacturing’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Governance to infrastructureDefence orders pull additive parts into production lines. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to mineralsDemand presses on qualified powder for a few alloys. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 2
03 Finance to infrastructureA machine maker exits and qualified settings are stranded. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to healthPowder handling scales faster than exposure controls. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 4
05 Trade to infrastructureExport controls and national rules diverge. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructurePart acceptance shifts from parts to processes. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-13, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Additive and Advanced Manufacturing 2026, scenario SCN-XT13-QAL-01 (2026); Additive and Advanced Manufacturing 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Nano Dimension Ltd. (ed.), Annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (first 100,000 characters read; Desktop Metal Chapter 11 filing on 28 July 2025; Markforged acquisition closed 25 April 2025; revenue tables not read). Nano Dimension, Waltham. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 223DPrint.com (ed.), US Department of Commerce issues new export controls on metal additive manufacturing (trade article, 18 September 2024; interim final rule; ECCN 2B910; comments due 5 November 2024; author analysis on scope; secondary source, weak evidence). 3DPrint.com, Chicago. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Defence demand outruns part acceptance and supply. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Additive and Advanced Manufacturing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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