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Additive manufacturing is production infrastructure that is still being qualified

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table15 notesNR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Additive manufacturing is production infrastructure that is still being qualified
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Defence demand outruns part acceptance and supply
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is additive manufacturing risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry additive manufacturing shocks into other systems?
  • Which additive manufacturing capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Additive manufacturing is often told as a story of new machines. The 2026 evidence reads it as production infrastructure with its own dependencies: powder and gas, qualified processes, operators and digital files71420.

The market evidence is mixed. Revenue grew 10.9% in 2025, but growth came from services, and machine sales grew 3.6%2. Two listed machine makers reported lower revenue34 and one entered Chapter 115. These market figures are trade summaries and company releases, not audited industry statistics.

Production use is real and narrow. A jet engine fuel nozzle tip moved to mass production by 20186. The US Navy reports 20 additive parts installed in a year and nearly 120 in development7, and the DoD strategy set the direction in 202110. Part acceptance is the limit, and the standards and benchmark work is still open111215.

The physical base is the least measured part. One polymer platform used about 114 MJ/kg14, metal machines are not bound, powder volumes are not bound, and a 2025 evaluation found powder spreading through a facility20.

Figure 1.1How large is global additive manufacturing revenue? USD billion

Revenue rose between the two summaries. The reported growth rate is 10.9%, while the ratio of the two rounded values is 10.5%, so the earlier year may have been revised. Both are commercial estimates read through trade summaries12.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2024 revenue in the Wohlers Report 2025 summary21.9
2025 revenue in the Wohlers Report 2026 summary24.2

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

24.2USD billion

revenue, 20252

21.9USD billion

revenue, 20241

48percent

services share, 20252

26percent

machine sales fall, 20241

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The additive manufacturing-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their additive manufacturing content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
facility cooling		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
cooling load		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    TRD → MIN → INF

    A powder or alloy supply or export-control change slows metal production.

    Inferred export controls and critical minerals2225

  2. 02

    GOV → INF

    Defence demand pulls additive parts into production and sets part acceptance pace.

    Reported Navy figures7

  3. 03

    FIN → INF

    Weak machine sales and consolidation affect machine supply and support.

    Reported company results345

  4. 04

    ENE → INF

    Process energy and gas use constrain siting and cost at scale.

    Inferred energy estimate14

  5. 05

    INF → HLT

    Powder handling exposes workers where controls are weak.

    Reported NIOSH evaluation20

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7Jones, M. (NAVSUP Weapon Systems Support), Shattering bottlenecks: NAVSUP WSS partners with DLA and NAVSEA on submarine advanced manufacturing (official release via the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, 30 June 2026; nearly 120 additive parts in development, 20 installed, more than 1,400 cumulative days of delay removed, lead times cut by up to 70% for some components; not independently audited). US Navy, Mechanicsburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14Baumers, M., Tuck, C. and Hague, R., Selective heat sintering versus laser sintering: comparison of deposition rate, process energy consumption and cost performance, Solid Freeform Fabrication Symposium proceedings, University of Texas at Austin (full text read; the year is inferred from the cited 2015 sources). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20American Industrial Hygiene Association (ed.), NIOSH evaluates metals exposures at manufacturing facility (news item, 11 September 2025, on a NIOSH health hazard evaluation dated February 2025 with visits in March and May 2023; secondary summary, the evaluation itself was not opened). AIHA, Falls Church. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Voulpiotis, F. (3Dnatives), Wohlers Report 2026: growth continues, but caution defines the AM market (trade article, 17 February 2026; weak evidence: a trade summary of a commercial report; reports 2025 revenue USD 24.231 billion, up 10.9%, services up 15.5% with 48% share, machine sales up 3.6%, Asia-Pacific up 19.8%, Europe and the Americas up 9%). 3Dnatives, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3Stratasys Ltd. (ed.), Stratasys releases fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results (company release, 5 March 2026; revenue USD 551.1 million against USD 572.5 million in 2024; GAAP net loss USD 104.3 million). Stratasys, Rehovot and Eden Prairie. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 43D Systems Corporation (ed.), 3D Systems reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results (company release, 9 March 2026; revenue USD 386.9 million, down 12%; Healthcare Solutions USD 179.6 million; Industrial Solutions USD 207.3 million). 3D Systems, Rock Hill. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Nano Dimension Ltd. (ed.), Annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (first 100,000 characters read; Desktop Metal Chapter 11 filing on 28 July 2025; Markforged acquisition closed 25 April 2025; revenue tables not read). Nano Dimension, Waltham. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6GE Aerospace (ed.), Manufacturing milestone: 30,000 additive fuel nozzles (company article, 4 October 2018; Auburn, Alabama; one piece replacing about 20; about 25% lighter; more than 40 printers; vendor announcement, weak evidence). GE Aerospace, Evendale. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10OSD ManTech Program Office (ed.), DoD additive manufacturing strategy (article page of the Defense Systems Information Analysis Center dated 1 March 2021; strategy released January 2021 by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; the page lists no figures; the strategy document itself was not opened). Defense Systems Information Analysis Center, Belcamp. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11NIST (ed.), Additive manufacturing standards (program page, updated 6 August 2026; ASTM F42, ISO/TC 261; ISO/ASTM 52911-1 and 52911-2 of 2019; ISO/ASTM 52922; work items WK72938, WK75184, WK78224, WK83109 in development). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12NIST (ed.), AM-Bench (program page; 2025 benchmarks 8 metal and 1 polymer sets; 85 challenge submissions; conference November 2025; AM Bench 2028 in planning). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 15Chen, L. et al., In-situ process monitoring and adaptive quality enhancement in laser additive manufacturing: a critical review, arXiv:2404.13673, submitted 21 April 2024 (abstract page read; accepted to the Journal of Manufacturing Systems). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 1Voulpiotis, F. (3Dnatives), Wohlers Report 2025: 9.1% growth for the global additive manufacturing market (trade article, 14 April 2025; weak evidence: a trade summary of a commercial report; reports 2024 market about USD 21.9 billion, machine sales down about 26%, services 47% of revenue). 3Dnatives, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 223DPrint.com (ed.), US Department of Commerce issues new export controls on metal additive manufacturing (trade article, 18 September 2024; interim final rule; ECCN 2B910; comments due 5 November 2024; author analysis on scope; secondary source, weak evidence). 3DPrint.com, Chicago. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026; export controls and price moves for tungsten and other minerals, taken from search-result summaries that differ on some details; no figure used in copy). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Additive manufacturing is production infrastructure that is still being qualified. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Additive and Advanced Manufacturing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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