Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables21 notesNR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Change in Stratasys revenue, 2025 over 2024	551.1 ÷ 572.5 − 1	−3.7%
(2)	Navy parts installed as a share of parts placed into development	20 ÷ 120	about 17%, at least
(3)	Services revenue implied by the 48% share	0.48 × 24.2	≈ USD 11.6 billion
(4)	Growth implied by two rounded revenue values	24.2 ÷ 21.9 − 1	10.5%, against 10.9% reported

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Additive manufacturing System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-XT13-MANUFACTURING · v0.1
Purpose: represent additive and advanced manufacturing as production infrastructure coupled to energy, powder and gas supply, materials, finance, workforce, occupational health and export controls
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

0moderate

documented, buffered

20weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 additive manufacturing annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Additive manufacturing System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Market size	2025	Feb 2026	annual	next Wohlers Report
Machine-maker results	2025	Mar 2026	quarterly	next results
Machine-maker Chapter 11	2025	Jul 2025	per event	sale outcomes
Navy parts counts	2026	Jun 2026	per event	next Navy report
AM-Bench	2025	Nov 2025	every three years	AM Bench 2028
Reference model	2024	Jul 2024	periodic	revision
Energy estimate	2015	2015	one-off	new studies
NIOSH evaluation	2025	Feb 2025	per event	further evaluations

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Market	PARTIAL	market figures from the reports
Defence	PARTIAL	independent review of counts
Standards	GOOD	text of work items
Energy	THIN	metal machine energy
Supply	THIN	powder volumes
Skills	THIN	workforce numbers
Health and safety	PARTIAL	exposure across facilities
Controls	PARTIAL	primary rule text

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Wohlers Report market figures from the reports themselves	Wohlers Report 2025 and 2026²³²⁴	the publisher pages returned access errors; figures come from trade summaries¹²
Specific energy and inert gas use of metal machines on a common basis	peer-reviewed footprint studies	only a polymer platform study was read¹⁴; metal values in search summaries span widely and were not opened³¹³²
Metal powder supply and demand volumes	powder producers, trade statistics	only supplier commentary and capacity announcements found³³
Part acceptance rates, yield and scrap by process and sector	operators, defence programmes, standards committees	not published on a common basis
Machine-maker impairments and order books from the filings	company annual reports³⁰	only a trade summary of a 2024 impairment was found; the page returned an access error
Installed base and utilisation of machines by country	industry and trade statistics	not retrieved
China additive manufacturing output from official statistics	MIIT and national statistics³⁷	figures found in secondary reports that disagree; none used
Text of the 2024 BIS interim final rule	Federal Register²⁸	only a trade article was read²²
Independent review of Navy additive parts counts and lead-time figures	GAO, inspector general or academic review	official releases only⁷⁸
Navy technical requirements for printed metal parts, August 2026	Navy documents²⁶	the news page returned an access error; seen in a search summary only
Additive manufacturing workforce size and skills gaps	national statistics, industry surveys³⁴³⁵³⁶	not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED
Medical and dental additive device volumes	FDA, regulators, industry bodies²⁷	not retrieved; no figure used
Construction and consumer additive manufacturing data	agencies, industry bodies	not retrieved; no figure used
Exposure data from facilities other than one NIOSH evaluation	occupational health agencies	one evaluation read²⁰
Capability rungs beyond standards and planning	agencies, operators, laboratories	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Published by NIST as a continuing benchmark series with a 2025 conference. 8 metal and 1 polymer benchmark sets and 85 challenge submissions. Role: binds INF-011. Coverage: controlled measurements, not production data.

EVD-XT13-001

NIST AM-Bench 2025¹²

Issued by a US Navy command through DVIDS. Official release. Role: binds GOV-007 and the defence tile. Coverage: one navy programme.

EVD-XT13-002

NAVSUP Weapon Systems Support release of 30 June 2026⁷

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-XT13-001	EVD-XT13-002
Completeness	metals and polymers; one conference cycle	one navy programme; counts only
Timeliness	conference in November 2025	released June 2026
Revision	data archived for public use	no revision history on the page
Method transparency	methods and data published	counts without method
External validation	blind challenge problems	none stated

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

Wohlers Report²³²⁴: the reports themselves
Navy⁷: independent review of counts and lead times
BIS²⁸: rule text
Suppliers and agencies³³: powder volumes

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AM	additive manufacturing
AM-Bench	NIST additive manufacturing benchmark series
AMS	NIST Advanced Manufacturing Series
BIS	US Bureau of Industry and Security
DED	directed energy deposition
ECCN	Export Control Classification Number
IDEF0	integration definition for function modelling
LPBF	laser powder bed fusion
NAVSEA	US Naval Sea Systems Command
NIOSH	US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
PBF	powder bed fusion
WAAM	wire-arc additive manufacturing

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-XT13-QAL-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Cluster notes	cards for the major additive manufacturing and powder clusters	2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: specific energy consumption

Construct: process energy used per kilogram of material deposited in a build
Unit: megajoules per kilogram
Method: energy metering over build experiments, with volume converted to mass by an assumed density
Source: Baumers, Tuck and Hague, 2015¹⁴
Uncertainty: estimated; depends on build packing and capacity utilisation
Known limits: polymer platforms only; not comparable with metal machines or with cool-down and post-processing energy

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wohlers Associates and ASTM International (eds.), Wohlers Report 2025, 30th edition (market size and growth as given in trade summaries; the publisher page returned an access error). Wohlers Associates, Fort Collins. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wohlers Associates and ASTM International (eds.), Wohlers Report 2026 (released 17 February 2026; segment shares of 48%, 26%, 20% and 6% taken from search-result summaries; the publisher page returned an access error). Wohlers Associates, Fort Collins. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Voulpiotis, F. (3Dnatives), Wohlers Report 2025: 9.1% growth for the global additive manufacturing market (trade article, 14 April 2025; weak evidence: a trade summary of a commercial report; reports 2024 market about USD 21.9 billion, machine sales down about 26%, services 47% of revenue). 3Dnatives, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Voulpiotis, F. (3Dnatives), Wohlers Report 2026: growth continues, but caution defines the AM market (trade article, 17 February 2026; weak evidence: a trade summary of a commercial report; reports 2025 revenue USD 24.231 billion, up 10.9%, services up 15.5% with 48% share, machine sales up 3.6%, Asia-Pacific up 19.8%, Europe and the Americas up 9%). 3Dnatives, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14Baumers, M., Tuck, C. and Hague, R., Selective heat sintering versus laser sintering: comparison of deposition rate, process energy consumption and cost performance, Solid Freeform Fabrication Symposium proceedings, University of Texas at Austin (full text read; the year is inferred from the cited 2015 sources). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kota, N. et al., energy model for powder bed fusion and specific energy consumption benchmarks, Cleaner and Responsible Consumption, September 2024, taken from a search summary; the page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gee, S. and Hart, A.J., specific energy consumption of laser powder bed fusion of AlSi10Mg (reported 20.3 to 30.5 MJ/kg), conference paper, 2024, taken from a search summary. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Continuum Powders (ed.), blog on powder supply bottlenecks for advanced manufacturing, October 2025, taken from a search summary; supplier commentary, weak evidence. Continuum Powders, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Metal Additive Manufacturing (ed.), GE Aerospace annual report highlights slow adoption of AM and the importance of Colibrium Additive (trade article on a 2024 impairment charge; the page returned an access error; no figure used). Inovar Communications, Shrewsbury. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and National Bureau of Statistics (eds.), additive manufacturing equipment output, 2025, taken from secondary reports that disagree; no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), interim final rule on export controls for metal additive manufacturing equipment, ECCN 2B910, September 2024, known from a trade article only; the Federal Register text was not read. BIS, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
223DPrint.com (ed.), US Department of Commerce issues new export controls on metal additive manufacturing (trade article, 18 September 2024; interim final rule; ECCN 2B910; comments due 5 November 2024; author analysis on scope; secondary source, weak evidence). 3DPrint.com, Chicago. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Jones, M. (NAVSUP Weapon Systems Support), Shattering bottlenecks: NAVSUP WSS partners with DLA and NAVSEA on submarine advanced manufacturing (official release via the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, 30 June 2026; nearly 120 additive parts in development, 20 installed, more than 1,400 cumulative days of delay removed, lead times cut by up to 70% for some components; not independently audited). US Navy, Mechanicsburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Maritime Industrial Base Program (ed.), Maritime Industrial Base Program highlights workforce mission at Virginia Tech (official release via the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, event 18 September 2025; need for 250,000 skilled workers over a decade; Columbia-class and Virginia-class output goals for 2028). US Navy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: USNI News (ed.), The Navy’s big 3-D printing bet (feature, 23 June 2026; taken from a search summary; the page returned an access error). US Naval Institute, Annapolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Alexander Daniels Global (ed.), 2026 AM Salary Survey, 10th edition, taken from a search summary of a trade article. Alexander Daniels Global, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: PostProcess Technologies (ed.), 2026 additive post-processing survey, taken from a search summary of a trade article; vendor survey, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kirchain, R., Moore, E. and Field, F., occupation and skills demand in the 3D and additive manufacturing industry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2022, taken from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Technical considerations for additive manufactured medical devices, guidance of 5 December 2017, taken from a search summary; the agency pages returned access errors. FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20American Industrial Hygiene Association (ed.), NIOSH evaluates metals exposures at manufacturing facility (news item, 11 September 2025, on a NIOSH health hazard evaluation dated February 2025 with visits in March and May 2023; secondary summary, the evaluation itself was not opened). AIHA, Falls Church. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12NIST (ed.), AM-Bench (program page; 2025 benchmarks 8 metal and 1 polymer sets; 85 challenge submissions; conference November 2025; AM Bench 2028 in planning). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Additive and Advanced Manufacturing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-MANUFACTURING-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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