Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Health
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Energy
    6. 2.6 Geopolitics
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, the highest number of any European country, and a further 12,743 in 2023.

Figure 2.1Heat-related deaths in Italy
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Summer 202218,010
Summer 202312,743

Sources: Ballester et al.4; Gallo et al.5.

Implication

Heat falls hardest on older people, and Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. Heat is therefore as much a question of care, housing and isolation as of meteorology, and it coincides with drought and peak power demand46.

What would move it

Heat-health alerts each summer, cooling in care homes and attributable-death estimates for 2024 and 2025 would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Transport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies.13

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record.21

2.3Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

    Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country.4

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005

    A further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023.5

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion.14

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas.11

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.12

2.5Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

    Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.78

2.6Geopolitics

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-GEO-010

    About 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 earthquake killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025.131516

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began.1013

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
  2. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
  3. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back
  4. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
  5. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
  6. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
  7. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
  9. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
  10. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
  11. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
  12. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
  13. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
  14. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  15. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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