Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no region or municipality.

7 min read2 figures2 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Italy’s hazards are usually counted one at a time: an earthquake, a flood, a heatwave, a drought. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. In 2022 the Po fell to its lowest summer flows in about seventy years24, the Marmolada glacier collapsed in the heat and killed eleven people26, and Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths, more than any other European country4. In May 2023 the rain returned on dried soils: floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion14.

The forcing is measurable. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record21, and heat caused a further 12,743 deaths in 20235. A national adaptation plan was approved in December 20239. About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in areas of medium flood hazard and 1.3 million in areas of high landslide hazard11.

The ground itself is a hazard. About 40% of buildings stand in zones of medium to high seismic hazard13; the earthquake of 24 August 2016 in central Italy killed 299 people15; and unrest at the Campi Flegrei, beneath a densely populated area west of Naples, produced earthquakes of magnitude 4.4 in May 2024 and 4.6 in March 202516.

Water and energy couple drought to the economy. In dry summers the same rivers supply irrigation, hydropower and cities, while 42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 202212. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 20247, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 20238. Emissions fell to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport is still above its 1990 level1.

Losses fall mostly outside insurance. Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood13; recovery has relied on the State as insurer of last resort. Since 2025 businesses must insure against natural catastrophes, but about 16% were compliant a year after the mandate began1013.

This edition therefore treats Italian risk as a property of couplings, between heat, rivers, slopes, faults, networks and health, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.

Figure 1.1Where do Italy’s emissions come from? Share of national emissions by sector, 2024 (%)

Transport emits more than any other sector and is the only major sector still above its 1990 level; more than 90% of it is road transport. Energy production has cut its emissions most since 19901.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Transport31.2
Residential18.4
Energy production17.6
Manufacturing12.7
All other sectors20.1

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-01-003

31%

transport share of emissions, 20241

+11%

transport emissions since 19901

41.2%

renewables in electricity demand, 20247

−43.7%

2030 effort-sharing target against 200540

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    Drought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvests.

    Reported 20222324

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → INF

    Cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides.

    Reported May 202314

  3. 03

    CLI → HLT

    Heatwaves raise deaths among older people.

    Reported 20224

  4. 04

    ENE → FIN

    A gas supply shock raises costs for industry and households.

    Reported 20228

  5. 05

    BIO → FOO

    Xylella kills olive groves in Apulia.

    Reported since 201319

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
  2. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
  3. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
  4. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  5. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
  6. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
  7. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
  8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
  9. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
  10. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
  11. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  12. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
  13. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
  14. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
  15. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
  16. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back
  17. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024.back
  18. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023.back
  19. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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