Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-CLI-001

    Extreme heat

    Driver
    heatwaves and tropical nights
    Exposure
    older people; dense cities
    Vulnerability
    one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling
    Capacity
    heat-health alert system; summer plans
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-WAT-002

    Drought in the Po basin and the South

    Driver
    dry winters; low Alpine snowpack; hot summers
    Exposure
    irrigation, hydropower, drinking water
    Vulnerability
    network losses of 42.4%12
    Capacity
    basin water-severity observatories24
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal · 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-CLI-003

    Floods and landslides

    Driver
    cloudbursts; autumn storms
    Exposure
    6.8 million in medium flood hazard; 1.3 million in high landslide hazard11
    Vulnerability
    building on unstable slopes and floodplains
    Capacity
    regional alert centres; civil protection
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-GEO-004

    Earthquakes and volcanic unrest

    Driver
    active faults; Campi Flegrei uplift16
    Exposure
    about 40% of buildings in medium-high seismic zones13
    Vulnerability
    older building stock; dense settlement
    Capacity
    seismic monitoring; civil protection; evacuation plans
    Cascade
    GEO → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    any time

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTShydrogeological plans and seismic codes; much building stock predates them1125
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDINGV seismic and volcanic monitoring in continuous use16
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDnational and regional weather alerts used in real events
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational adaptation plan, 20239; national risk assessment25
Redundancy and reservesDEMONSTRATEDgas supply diversified after 20228
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDnational civil-protection system in earthquakes and floods15
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSsector continuity plans; networks hit hard in 202314
RecoveryEXISTSState-funded reconstruction after earthquakes and floods
AdaptationEXISTSPNACC measures, implementation under way9
Social protectionEXISTSincome support; disaster-specific cover uneven
Finance and insuranceLISTEDbusiness mandate since 2025 with low uptake; 7.3% of homes insured1013
Institutional coordinationEXISTSnational civil-protection service linking State, regions and municipalities
Technical infrastructureEXISTSwater networks losing 42.4% of supply12
WorkforceEXISTSvolunteer-based civil protection; health staffing pressures
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong geoscience, climate and agronomic research
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
  2. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
  3. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
  4. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  5. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
  6. 25Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), National Risk Assessment: Overview of the Potential Major Disasters in Italy. DPC, Rome, 2018.back
  7. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
  8. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
  9. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
  10. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  11. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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