Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity

The first annual edition of the health security report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the world’s health security, One Health and biosecurity systems, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition will be read.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Desk
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsSR-08

Strategic Systems

Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources48numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators15in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-STR-SR-08-2026-BL
Identifier status
Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
Family · class
Strategic Systems Report SR-08 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
Strategic Systems Report SR-08 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Publication date
October 2026
Evidence close
30 September 2026 · cut DC-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · health-security screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
Not for
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
Registry
record NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
Corrections
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AI use
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
Licence
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
Collection

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. Yes: animal origin, drug resistance, immunity gaps and weak water and sanitation recur across events.

    Do health threats have common causes?Reported

  2. Across health zones, provinces and borders; one DRC outbreak reached Uganda and a case abroad.

    How do outbreaks spread?Reported

  3. Partly: the amended IHR are in force; the Pandemic Agreement annex is not agreed.

    Is the rulebook in place?Reported

  4. 13.5 million zero-dose children in 2025.

    How large is the immunity gap?Reported

  5. About one in six infections resistant; data are missing for 48% of countries.

    How serious is drug resistance?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Health threats cross every line

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the health security baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four global risk objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 health security agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Bundibugyo virus disease in the DRC, to 27 September 2026
  2. 1.1How far has development assistance for health fallen? USD billion
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Bundibugyo virus disease in the DRC, to 27 September 2026
List of tables (45)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  3. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  4. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  5. 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
  6. 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
  7. 6.32027 health security readiness pack
  8. 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
  9. 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
  10. 6.6Institutional flagships
  11. 6.7Statistics, burden and financing
  12. 6.8Standards, treaties and instruments
  13. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  14. 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the health security candidate mission
  15. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  16. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  17. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  18. 7.6Signals at baseline
  19. 8.1Evidence at baseline
  20. 8.2Evidence at baseline
  21. 8.3Evidence at baseline
  22. 8.4Evidence at baseline
  23. 8.5Evidence at baseline
  24. A.1Methods
  25. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  26. A.3Status grammar
  27. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  28. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  29. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  30. A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
  31. A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
  32. A.9Publication acceptance record
  33. A.10The status every value carries
  34. A.11Series terms
  35. A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
  36. A.13Technical annex
  37. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  38. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  39. B.3Global source register
  40. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  41. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  42. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  43. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  44. B.8This edition in every format
  45. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports reading health security as one connected system. Common causes recur across diseases, outbreaks spread through shared borders and health services, and response is limited by thresholds such as missing countermeasures, funding and surveillance reach. Evidence is strongest for single events and weakest for cross-border data on a common basis.

HLT-003 · HLT-002 · BIO-006 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none: first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the health security modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of health security releases, statistics and the peer-reviewed literature to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV15 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
PDF, A4 and US LetterPrinted from the edition pack in the Reports print design, with the publication ID, the evidence cut and the pack hash in its metadata; signed with its DOI at release At releaseNot yet issued
Data packageEvery table of the edition as CSV and JSON, with the citation files (CSL-JSON, BibTeX, RIS), built with the site With the editionAnnex B, data

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-08/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-08/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-08/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-08/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

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Bring evidence to the next edition.

Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.

ContributeCorrections log
  • NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
  • CC BY 4.0
  • Evidence close 30 September 2026

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Health and its partners

Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.42 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

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