Key findings

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The 2019–20 Black Summer fires burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings; smoke was linked to an estimated 417 further deaths.

Implication

The fires harmed people far from the fire front. Smoke reached the large coastal cities, so the exposed population was far larger than the burnt area suggests. Fire is therefore a health, water-quality and service-continuity question as well as a land question²²²³.

What would move it

Fuel load and rainfall before each fire season, smoke-health surveillance and the loss series for insured and uninsured property would each move this finding. The loss series is not bound here³⁶.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020.⁸

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025.¹⁸¹⁹²⁰

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

   The 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings.²²

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%.¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Australia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024.¹¹

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

   Smoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study.²³

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Life expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025.³¹⁰

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   National water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Major dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average.⁵

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   The food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22.⁷¹⁴

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Protected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024.⁹

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
3. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
4. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back
6. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022.back
7. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
8. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back