Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 53 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.153 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  2. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
  3. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 2 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  7. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: agricultural land and forest area (AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: current health expenditure and physicians (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS), Australia; upstream WHO and OECD. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2022–2023. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  16. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  17. 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  18. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  19. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
  20. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  23. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
  24. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25G. Samuel (ed.), Independent Review of the EPBC Act: Final Report. Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2020. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNESCO World Heritage Centre (ed.), Great Barrier Reef, World Heritage List entry 154, inscribed 1981. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 1981. Cited in chapter 8
  28. 28Australian Institute of Marine Science (ed.), Long-Term Monitoring Program: Annual Summary Report on Coral Reef Condition. AIMS, Townsville. Latest annual report; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
  29. 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30Bureau of Meteorology (ed.), Annual Climate Statement 2025. BoM, Melbourne. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.
  31. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
  33. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  34. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  35. 35Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Agricultural Commodities and Trade. ABARES, Canberra. Latest release; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
  36. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (eds.), Climate Change in Australia: Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions, Technical Report. CSIRO and BoM, Melbourne, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  49. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  50. 50Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target. Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  52. 52Australian Accounting Standards Board (ed.), AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosures. AASB, Melbourne, September 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  53. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Australia Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
AUSNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-AUS-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Australia; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. AUS edition Reports Australia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; AUS is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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