Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Australia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 591.5 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024. The position against 2005 is not bound.⁸

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 43% below 2005 by 2030, a 2035 range of 62 to 70%, and net zero by 2050.¹⁸¹⁹²⁰

   What are the targets?Reported

3. Wind and solar 33%, fossil fuels 61% and coal 43% in 2025.¹⁶

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

4. 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture, forestry and fishing.⁵

   How much water is used, and by whom?Reported

5. About 24 million hectares burnt, 33 direct deaths and an estimated 417 smoke-related deaths.²²²³

   How severe was the last national fire season?Reported

6. 27.92 million, up 1.4% in a year; life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years.¹³

   How is the population changing?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.³⁶

   Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

8. Fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coinciding in the populated south-east. SCN-AUS-FIR-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The 2019–20 Black Summer fires burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings; smoke was linked to an estimated 417 further deaths.

The fires harmed people far from the fire front. Smoke reached the large coastal cities, so the exposed population was far larger than the burnt area suggests. Fire is therefore a health, water-quality and service-continuity question as well as a land question²²²³.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back
4. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022.back
5. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
6. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
10. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
11. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Australia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Australia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → HLT

   Fire smoke reaches large cities and loads health services.

   Reported 2019–20²²²³

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Dry years cut storage and allocation, and farm output follows.

   Inferred storage and rainfall 2023–24⁵

3. 03

   ENE → HLT

   A hot spell raises power demand while cooling is a health need.

   Inferred no event bound

4. 04

   TRD → ENE → FOO

   A fuel supply disruption reaches farm and freight operations.

   Inferred no event bound

5. 05

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Fire or flood damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

   Inferred loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
4. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
5. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close.back
10. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close.back
15. 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022.back
17. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The 2019–20 Black Summer fires burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings; smoke was linked to an estimated 417 further deaths.

Implication

The fires harmed people far from the fire front. Smoke reached the large coastal cities, so the exposed population was far larger than the burnt area suggests. Fire is therefore a health, water-quality and service-continuity question as well as a land question²²²³.

What would move it

Fuel load and rainfall before each fire season, smoke-health surveillance and the loss series for insured and uninsured property would each move this finding. The loss series is not bound here³⁶.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020.⁸

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025.¹⁸¹⁹²⁰

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

   The 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings.²²

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%.¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Australia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024.¹¹

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

   Smoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study.²³

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Life expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025.³¹⁰

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   National water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Major dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average.⁵

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   The food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22.⁷¹⁴

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Protected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024.⁹

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
3. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
4. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back
6. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022.back
7. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
8. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 2 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
14. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
15. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AUS-CLI-001

   Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east

   Driver

   hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load

   Exposure

   peri-urban communities and downwind cities

   Vulnerability

   older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions

   Capacity

   fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission²²

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-AUS-WAT-002

   Dry-year water stress across state borders

   Driver

   low rainfall and high agricultural demand

   Exposure

   irrigated agriculture and regional towns

   Vulnerability

   dependence on shared river systems

   Capacity

   Basin Plan arrangements²⁴

   Cascade

   WAT → FOO, BIO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-AUS-HLT-003

   Heat and smoke overload of health services

   Driver

   heat waves and smoke episodes

   Exposure

   older adults; outdoor workers

   Vulnerability

   limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound

   Capacity

   health system capacity; not bound³⁴

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AUS-ENE-004

   Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition

   Driver

   shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement

   Exposure

   power, freight, farming and households

   Vulnerability

   stock depth not bound

   Capacity

   market operator planning³¹

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
2. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
3. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
4. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back
5. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
6. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
7. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
10. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
11. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
12. 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
13. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended heat wave in a dry year, with large fires in peri-urban areas and smoke over a capital city

Analogues

2019–20 fire season²²²³; no other analogue bound

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   fire cuts roads and power lines near cities

   2019–20²²

2. 2

   CLI → HLT

   smoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths

   2019–20²³

3. 3

   ENE → HLT

   peak cooling demand coincides with network damage

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   CLI → WAT

   ash and runoff degrade supply quality

   no analogue bound

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01 would travel through Australia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Australia 2026, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01 (2026); Australia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Australia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Australia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 52Australian Accounting Standards Board (ed.), AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosures. AASB, Melbourne, September 2024.back
2. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back
3. 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
4. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
5. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
6. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
7. 25G. Samuel (ed.), Independent Review of the EPBC Act: Final Report. Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2020.back
8. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
9. 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
10. 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review.back
11. 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
12. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
13. 45J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
14. 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
15. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back
16. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
17. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
18. 50Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target. Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
19. 42International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023.back
20. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
24. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26. 46World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
27. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
28. 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
29. 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
30. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
31. 43Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
32. 37CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (eds.), Climate Change in Australia: Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions, Technical Report. CSIRO and BoM, Melbourne, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
33. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
34. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close.back
35. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer load fire response, health services and the grid together in the south-east?

   INI-AUS-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for two states.

2. A-02

   How deep are liquid fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged shipping or supply disruption?

   INI-AUS-ENE-02 · fuel resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

3. A-03

   How do basin storage, allocation and rainfall interact in dry years across state borders?

   INI-AUS-WAT-03 · basin water; first output: basin performance note.

4. A-04

   How many deaths and hospital stays can be attributed to heat, and where?

   INI-AUS-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline for three states.

5. A-05

   Where do disaster losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-AUS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of threatened species and the Great Barrier Reef, and how is it measured?

   INI-AUS-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed is food output and household food access to concurrent drought, fire and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Australia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Australia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-AUS-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-AUS-2027-01 · Fire, heat and grid Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
3. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Australia consumed 17,223 GL of water in 2023–24, and agriculture, forestry and fishing used about 68% of it. National freshwater per person is high, but scarcity is local and varies by year.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Australia is a net energy exporter. Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025, while fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. Liquid fuel stock depth is not bound.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The food production index reached 122.5 in 2024, and agriculture covers a large share of land. Output is exposed to water and fire, and household food security is not bound.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Australians live long lives and the population is ageing. Fire smoke and heat load health services, and the data to measure heat-related deaths are not bound.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

About 22% of land and 45% of territorial waters are in protected areas. Condition, threat status and the state of the Great Barrier Reef are not bound at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close.back
6. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back
7. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: agricultural land and forest area (AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10. 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
11. 35Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Agricultural Commodities and Trade. ABARES, Canberra. Latest release; not read at evidence close.back
12. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
15. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: current health expenditure and physicians (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS), Australia; upstream WHO and OECD. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2022–2023. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
18. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19. 27UNESCO World Heritage Centre (ed.), Great Barrier Reef, World Heritage List entry 154, inscribed 1981. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 1981.back
20. 28Australian Institute of Marine Science (ed.), Long-Term Monitoring Program: Annual Summary Report on Coral Reef Condition. AIMS, Townsville. Latest annual report; not read at evidence close.back
21. 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-AUS-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Australia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for state or territory or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

53 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-AUS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• National inventory quarterly update³³ : land-use treatment and the 2005 base
• Australian Energy Update³² : fuel imports and stocks
• AIHW health reports³⁴ : heat-related hospital data
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁷ and the global baseline⁴⁸ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse-gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank indicator series⁸

Revision

revised by the upstream issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

differs from the national inventory, which includes land use and uses 2005 as its target base

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close.back
4. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close.back
5. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
6. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
7. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Australia by state and territory

Map plates for every state or territory follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected populations, 31 March 2026¹

B.4Atlas card, Murray–Darling Basin

• basin
• shared river system
• irrigated agriculture
• five jurisdictions

Systems in view

water, food, biodiversity and regional towns

Defining instrument

Water Act 2007 and Basin Plan 2012²⁴

Couplings

CLI → WAT → FOO; WAT ↔ BIO

Capability evidence

shared-river arrangements exist; performance not bound

Gaps

basin storage, allocation and environmental flows

Agenda items

A-03

B.5Australia system card

The card through which Australia appears in the Oceania and Pacific regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income, highly urbanised continental economy and net energy exporter

Population

27.92 million (31 March 2026)¹

Trade

net energy exports about 211% of energy use¹¹

Hazard

Black Summer 2019–20: about 24 million hectares burnt²²

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
2. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close.back
10. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close.back
11. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
12. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
13. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 2 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: agricultural land and forest area (AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: current health expenditure and physicians (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS), Australia; upstream WHO and OECD. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2022–2023. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21. 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
23. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
24. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
25. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012.back

C.153 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
2. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
3. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 2 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
7. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: agricultural land and forest area (AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: current health expenditure and physicians (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS), Australia; upstream WHO and OECD. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2022–2023. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
16. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
18. 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
19. 19Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution: communication 2022 (43% below 2005 by 2030). Submission to the UNFCCC, June 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
20. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
22. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
23. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
24. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25G. Samuel (ed.), Independent Review of the EPBC Act: Final Report. Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2020. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27UNESCO World Heritage Centre (ed.), Great Barrier Reef, World Heritage List entry 154, inscribed 1981. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 1981. Cited in chapter 8
28. 28Australian Institute of Marine Science (ed.), Long-Term Monitoring Program: Annual Summary Report on Coral Reef Condition. AIMS, Townsville. Latest annual report; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
29. 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30Bureau of Meteorology (ed.), Annual Climate Statement 2025. BoM, Melbourne. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.
31. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
33. 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
34. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
35. 35Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Agricultural Commodities and Trade. ABARES, Canberra. Latest release; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
36. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (eds.), Climate Change in Australia: Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions, Technical Report. CSIRO and BoM, Melbourne, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
45. 45J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
49. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
50. 50Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target. Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
51. 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
52. 52Australian Accounting Standards Board (ed.), AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosures. AASB, Melbourne, September 2024. Cited in chapter 6
53. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6

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