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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Australia consumed 17,223 GL of water in 2023–24, and agriculture, forestry and fishing used about 68% of it. National freshwater per person is high, but scarcity is local and varies by year.

17,223GL

water consumed, 2023–245

11,760GL

agriculture, forestry and fishing5

18,909m³

renewable internal freshwater per person, 202213

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Consumption17,223 GL, up 12.9% in 2023–245Reported
Households1,868 GL; 174 kL per household5Reported
Storage and raindam storages 57,931 GL, down 8.1%; rainfall 535 mm5Reported
Reuse306 GL, under 2% of consumption5Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT dry years and fire runoff
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and allocation
  • WAT ↔ ENE cooling and hydro
  • WAT → HLT supply quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin storage and allocation by state
  • water quality after fire and flood

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Australia is a net energy exporter. Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025, while fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. Liquid fuel stock depth is not bound.

33%

wind and solar share of electricity, 202516

43%

coal share of electricity, 202516

≈211%

net energy exports against own use, 202411

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixwind and solar 33%; fossil 61%; coal 43%16Reported
Energy tradenet exports about 211% of energy use11Reported
Energy use per person4,999.85 kg of oil equivalent in 202411Reported
Fuel stocksnot bound; source is the Australian Energy Update32NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel imports and shipping
  • ENE → HLT cooling in heat waves
  • ENE → WAT pumping and desalination
  • CLI → ENE peak demand and line damage

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • liquid fuel and gas stock depth
  • grid resilience in compound summer events

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The food production index reached 122.5 in 2024, and agriculture covers a large share of land. Output is exposed to water and fire, and household food security is not bound.

122.5index

food production, 2014–16 = 100, 202414

369million ha

agricultural land, 2021–227

47.3%

of land area is agricultural, 202412

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Productionindex 122.5 in 2024, up from 109.414Reported
Land369 million hectares in 2021–227Reported
Farm businesses87,800 in 2021–227Reported
Household accessnot bound; source is the Foodbank Hunger Report51NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation and allocation
  • CLI → FOO drought and heat
  • ENE → FOO fuel and freight
  • TRD → FOO export markets

Evidence to bind in 2027

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Australians live long lives and the population is ageing. Fire smoke and heat load health services, and the data to measure heat-related deaths are not bound.

81.1 / 85.1years

life expectancy, males and females, 2022–243

18.1%

aged 65 or over, 202510

417people

estimated smoke-related deaths, 2019–2023

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Life expectancy81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females3Reported
Ageing18.1% aged 65 or over10Reported
Births292,318; total fertility rate 1.4814Reported
Health spending10.4% of GDP in 2023; 4.1 physicians per 1,000 in 202215Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat and smoke
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • WAT → HLT supply quality
  • HLT → FIN care and recovery cost

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat-related deaths and hospital stays
  • smoke-health surveillance

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

About 22% of land and 45% of territorial waters are in protected areas. Condition, threat status and the state of the Great Barrier Reef are not bound at baseline.

22.0%

of land protected, 20249

45.4%

of territorial waters protected, 20249

17.4%

of land is forest, 202412

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 22.0%, territorial waters 45.4%9Reported
Forest17.4% of land area12Reported
World HeritageGreat Barrier Reef inscribed in 198127Reported
Reef conditionnot bound; source is the AIMS annual summary28NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT catchment and wetland regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and fisheries
  • CLI → BIO fire and marine heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • threatened species status
  • reef and ecosystem condition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 32Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australian Energy Update 2025. DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2023–24; not read at evidence close.back
  6. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back
  7. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: agricultural land and forest area (AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
  11. 35Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Agricultural Commodities and Trade. ABARES, Canberra. Latest release; not read at evidence close.back
  12. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
  15. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: current health expenditure and physicians (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS), Australia; upstream WHO and OECD. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2022–2023. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  17. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
  18. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  19. 27UNESCO World Heritage Centre (ed.), Great Barrier Reef, World Heritage List entry 154, inscribed 1981. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 1981.back
  20. 28Australian Institute of Marine Science (ed.), Long-Term Monitoring Program: Annual Summary Report on Coral Reef Condition. AIMS, Townsville. Latest annual report; not read at evidence close.back
  21. 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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