- Australia 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Australian risk: fire, heat and dry years act on water, energy and health together. Evidence is strongest for population, water consumption and electricity mix, and weakest for losses, lifelines and the condition of nature.
CLI-001 · CLI-005 · WAT-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a smoke day, a heat warning or a water restriction. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how long distances and an ageing population change who can be reached and how fast places recover.
HLT-006 · HLT-010 · CLI-005
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound, and climate-related financial disclosure standards now apply to large entities52. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
CLI-002 · SYS-012
NEXUS
Synthesis
Australia publishes strong statistics on population and water and a clear legal frame for emissions. The 2027 programme should bind loss, fuel-stock and lifeline data, test the compound summer, and measure the condition of nature.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Australia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Australia | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Fire, heat and dry years do not arrive one at a time. The baseline treats the compound summer as a coupling problem across health, power and water, not as a fire-service problem alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
The risk is in the coupling
Australia sends out more than twice the energy it uses, yet it still depends on shipping and on a grid in transition. Energy security is a supply-chain question as much as a resource question.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
An energy exporter is not exempt
National water use is large and national freshwater per person is high, but scarcity is felt in particular basins and in particular years. The edition reads water through those places.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Averages hide the basin
Several of the data that matter most for risk, including losses, fuel stocks and the condition of nature, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Gaps are findings too
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement · 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 20051841 | UNFCCC · Australia | national | SUBMITTED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Climate Change Act 202220 | Parliament of Australia | national | IN FORCE | targets in law |
| Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 202321 | Parliament of Australia | national | IN FORCE | industrial emissions |
| Water Act 2007 and Basin Plan 201224 | Parliament of Australia · MDBA | basin | IN FORCE | shared river water |
| Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 199925 | Parliament of Australia | national | IN FORCE · REFORM AGREED 2025 | environment law |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework40 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203039 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
| AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosures52 | AASB | large entities | PUBLISHED 2024 | disclosure |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Australia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)38 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)44 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.45 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| State of the Climate 202429 | assessment | 2024 | supports | warming trend |
| MJA–Lancet Countdown53 | journal article | 2023 | context | health and climate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Commission report22 | Royal Commission | 2020 | supports | hazard governance |
| Independent review of the EPBC Act25 | independent review | 2020 | supports | environment law |
| National Climate Risk Assessment49 | Australian Government | 2025 | context | risk |
| Climate Change Authority advice50 | statutory authority | 2025 | context | 2035 target |
| Energy policy review42 | IEA | 2023 | context | energy policy |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population estimates12 | ABS | 2026 | supports | profile |
| Life expectancy and births34 | ABS | 2025 | supports | health, demography |
| Water Account5 | ABS | 2025 | supports | water |
| Agricultural commodities7 | ABS | 2023 | supports | food |
| World Health Statistics46 | WHO | 2025 | context | health |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity data16 | Ember | 2026 | supports | power mix |
| Carbon data17 | Our World in Data | 2025 | context | CO₂ |
| Hunger Report51 | Foodbank Australia | 2025 | context | food security |
| Catastrophe data36 | Insurance Council of Australia | ongoing | context | losses |
| NatCatSERVICE43 | Munich Re | 2026 | context | global losses |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 52Australian Accounting Standards Board (ed.), AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosures. AASB, Melbourne, September 2024.back
- 18Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
- 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
- 25G. Samuel (ed.), Independent Review of the EPBC Act: Final Report. Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2020.back
- 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
- 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
- 26Parliament of Australia (ed.), Environment protection reform legislation replacing the EPBC Act framework: Senate agreement of 27 November 2025. Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Title and instrument to be confirmed at editorial review.back
- 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
- 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 45J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
- 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
- 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back
- 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
- 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
- 50Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target. Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
- 42International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2023.back
- 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Births, Australia, 2024. ABS, Canberra, released 15 October 2025. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 46World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 17Our World in Data (ed.), CO₂ emissions: Australia country profile, based on Global Carbon Project data. Our World in Data, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 51Foodbank Australia (ed.), Foodbank Hunger Report 2025. Foodbank Australia, Sydney, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
- 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
- 43Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
- 37CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (eds.), Climate Change in Australia: Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions, Technical Report. CSIRO and BoM, Melbourne, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 33Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly Update. DCCEEW, Canberra. Latest update; not read at evidence close.back
- 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back