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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Water consumed by agriculture, forestry and fishing

11,760GL

About 68% of national consumption. Irrigation estimates now use a satellite model, which breaks the time series.

Reported2023–24ABS5

ENE · Energy

Wind and solar share of electricity

33%

Fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43% of electricity in the same year.

Reported2025Ember16

FOO · Food

Food production index (2014–16 = 100)

122.5index

Up from 109.4 in 2023. The index measures output, not household food security.

Reported2024FAO via World Bank14

HLT · Health

Smoke-related deaths estimated for the 2019–20 fires

417people

A modelled estimate in a peer-reviewed study, not a death count.

Reported2020MJA23

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

22.0%

Marine protected areas cover 45.4% of territorial waters.

Reported2024WDPA via World Bank9

SYS · Cross-system

Area burnt in the 2019–20 fire season

≈24million ha

33 people died in the fires and more than 3,000 buildings were destroyed.

Reported2020Royal Commission22

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATArid continent with high year-to-year variation; 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture5.WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 5
ENENet energy exporter; wind and solar 33%, coal 43% of electricity in 20251116.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOFood production index 122.5 in 2024; agricultural land 369 million hectares in 2021–22714.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTLife expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years; 18.1% aged 65 or over310.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 5
BIOProtected: 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters9. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIFire season of 2019–20 burnt about 24 million hectares22.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFLong distances and dense capital-city networks; lifeline condition not bound.INF → allExpert input EQL 2
FINInsured and uninsured loss series not bound; GDP A$742.5 billion in the June 2026 quarter6.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grid and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel exports not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDA net energy exporter that depends on shipping for exports and for refined fuel supply.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound fire, heat and grid stresshot, dry summer in the south-eastPARTIAL
GS-01Water17,223 GL consumed; 68% agriculture5dry years; basin allocationGOOD
GS-02Energywind and solar 33%; coal 43%16coal retirement; peak demandGOOD
GS-03Foodproduction index 122.514drought; export shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Healthlife expectancy 81.1 and 85.13heat and smoke loadPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentlong distances; capital-city growth2service reach in remote areasPARTIAL
GS-07Climatetargets in law20heat and fire weatherPARTIAL
GS-08DisasterRoyal Commission findings22compound and sequential disastersPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurelifeline condition not boundmaintenance and exposureTHIN
GS-10Cities18.75 million in capital cities2urban heat and smokePARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversity22.0% land protected9land use and reef stressPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationnational observing systems existcontinuity of recordsTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyClimate Change Act and Safeguard Mechanism2021coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed health and climate record2353translation to statesPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: food production index, 2014–2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Australia; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
  5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
  7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita and net energy imports (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Australia; upstream IEA. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue). ABS, Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2021–22. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024. ABS, Canberra, released 11 November 2025. Observation years 2022–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above and urban population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Australia; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation years 2024–2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 2 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25. ABS, Canberra, released 31 March 2026. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  13. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  14. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  15. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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