Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table13 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AUS-CLI-001

    Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east

    Driver
    hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load
    Exposure
    peri-urban communities and downwind cities
    Vulnerability
    older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions
    Capacity
    fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission22
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-AUS-WAT-002

    Dry-year water stress across state borders

    Driver
    low rainfall and high agricultural demand
    Exposure
    irrigated agriculture and regional towns
    Vulnerability
    dependence on shared river systems
    Capacity
    Basin Plan arrangements24
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, BIO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-AUS-HLT-003

    Heat and smoke overload of health services

    Driver
    heat waves and smoke episodes
    Exposure
    older adults; outdoor workers
    Vulnerability
    limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound
    Capacity
    health system capacity; not bound34
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AUS-ENE-004

    Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition

    Driver
    shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement
    Exposure
    power, freight, farming and households
    Vulnerability
    stock depth not bound
    Capacity
    market operator planning31
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSClimate Change Act and Safeguard Mechanism are in force2021
Monitoring and observationEXISTSnational statistical accounts for water and population are published15
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: Bureau of Meteorology and state emergency service records · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDRoyal Commission recommended national arrangements; delivery not bound22
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: fuel, water and grain reserve data · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for fire and flood seasons · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: lifeline operator continuity plans · blocker: not published at public-safe level
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDnational risk assessment published; delivery not bound49
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: Insurance Council of Australia catastrophe data36 · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDBasin Plan arrangements span states24; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTSpeer-reviewed health and climate research is published232953
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
  2. 24Parliament of Australia (ed.), Water Act 2007 (Cth) and Murray–Darling Basin Plan 2012. Canberra; Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
  3. 34Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024. AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024; not read at evidence close.back
  4. 31Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), 2026 Integrated System Plan. AEMO, Melbourne, 2026. Observation year 2026; not read at evidence close.back
  5. 20Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  6. 21Parliament of Australia (ed.), Safeguard Mechanism (Crediting) Amendment Act 2023 (Cth). Canberra, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  7. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026. ABS, Canberra, released 17 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 49Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025; not read at evidence close.back
  10. 36Insurance Council of Australia (ed.), Catastrophe declarations and insured loss data. ICA, Sydney. Ongoing series; not read at evidence close.back
  11. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
  12. 29Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024. BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  13. 53MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Australian policy inaction threatens lives and compounds health risks, Medical Journal of Australia. 2023. Title and authorship to be confirmed at editorial review.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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