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Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
an extended heat wave in a dry year, with large fires in peri-urban areas and smoke over a capital city
Analogues
2019–20 fire season2223; no other analogue bound
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → INF

    fire cuts roads and power lines near cities

    2019–2022

  2. 2

    CLI → HLT

    smoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths

    2019–2023

  3. 3

    ENE → HLT

    peak cooling demand coincides with network damage

    no analogue bound

  4. 4

    CLI → WAT

    ash and runoff degrade supply quality

    no analogue bound

  5. 5

    HLT → FIN

    losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

    loss series not bound

  6. 6

    FIN → recovery

    rebuilding slows where cover is thin

    loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01 would travel through Australia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to infrastructureFire cuts roads and power lines near cities. Analogue or source: 2019–20 [22].Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 1
02 Climate to healthSmoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths. Analogue or source: 2019–20 [23].Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 2
03 Energy to healthPeak cooling demand coincides with network damage. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 3
04 Climate to waterAsh and runoff degrade supply quality. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 4
05 Health to financeLosses fall on households, insurers and budgets. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 5
06 Finance to recoveryRebuilding slows where cover is thin. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition AUS, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Australia 2026, scenario SCN-AUS-FIR-01 (2026); Australia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
  2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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