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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a hot, dry summer load fire response, health services and the grid together in the south-east?

    INI-AUS-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for two states.

  2. A-02

    How deep are liquid fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged shipping or supply disruption?

    INI-AUS-ENE-02 · fuel resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How do basin storage, allocation and rainfall interact in dry years across state borders?

    INI-AUS-WAT-03 · basin water; first output: basin performance note.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths and hospital stays can be attributed to heat, and where?

    INI-AUS-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline for three states.

  5. A-05

    Where do disaster losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-AUS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

  6. A-06

    What is the condition of threatened species and the Great Barrier Reef, and how is it measured?

    INI-AUS-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed is food output and household food access to concurrent drought, fire and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-AUS-CLI-01Compound summer stress: fire, heat and gridInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-AUS-ENE-02Fuel and gas supply resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-AUS-WAT-03Basin water in dry yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-AUS-HLT-04Heat, smoke and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-AUS-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-AUS-CLI-01aTwo-state compound summer dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-AUS-2027-01Fire, heat and grid Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Australia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Australia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-AUS-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-AUS-2027-01 · Fire, heat and grid Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-005 · Black SummerINI-AUS-CLI-01compound summer graphPUBLIC
ENE-004 · energy exportsINI-AUS-ENE-02fuel resiliencePUBLIC
WAT-007 · water useINI-AUS-WAT-03basin waterPUBLIC
FOO-009 · food outputINI-AUS-WAT-03drought and outputPUBLIC
HLT-006 · smokeINI-AUS-HLT-04heat and smoke attributionPUBLIC
BIO-011 · protected areasINI-AUS-BIO-01condition indicatorPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-AUS-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather and fire-danger warningsBureau of Meteorologyreal timeCLI findings
Electricity market dataAEMO5 minutesENE findings
Population releasesABSquarterlyHLT-010
Water AccountABSannualWAT-007
Dam storage and allocation noticesstate water agencies and MDBAweekly in seasonRSK-AUS-WAT-002
Catastrophe declarations and loss dataInsurance Council of Australiaper eventFIN findings
Coral reef conditionAIMSannualBIO findings

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-AUS-001Record of 2019–20 fire season harm2223CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTrisk object RSK-AUS-CLI-001
SIG-AUS-002Fall in dam storages in 2023–245CORROBORATEDWAT · FOOresearch question A-03
SIG-AUS-003Wind and solar at 33% of electricity in 202516CORROBORATEDENE · CLIinitiative A-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (ed.), Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, October 2020. Observation year 2019–20.back
  2. 23N. Borchers Arriagada et al., “Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia,” Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 213, no. 6, pp. 282–283, 2020.back
  3. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24. ABS, Canberra, released 11 December 2025. Observation year 2023–24. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16Ember (ed.), Australia: electricity data explorer, full-year 2025. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Australia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Australia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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