Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

8 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Switzerland (Schweiz, Suisse, Svizzera) enters 2027 with 9.13 million residents1, and people aged 65 or over (about 1.81 million) now outnumber those under 20 (about 1.80 million)2. Its risks come from mountains and from water. The 2025 mean temperature was 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm, the fourth-warmest year since records began in 186412, and glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 201513. On 28 May 2025 the Birch Glacier collapsed under rock debris and buried most of Blatten, and insurers put the insured damage at CHF 255 million1416. In 2026 a snow-poor winter and a dry spring left about one-fifth of monitoring stations at a record low for the season between April and July19, Lake Zurich at its lowest level since records began in 195120, and hydropower reservoirs at 46% full in mid-July, 16.4 points below the 20-year average8. Emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 19903, against a second contribution that sets a cut of at least 65% by 20354. Hydropower gave 55.5% of domestic generation in 2025 and nuclear power 27.2%6. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Switzerland’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, slope failure and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Switzerland baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 1990. Later years are not bound.3

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. At least 65% below 1990 by 2035 as a 106.8 MtCO₂e budget for 2031–2035; net zero by 2050.4

    What is the climate target?Reported

  3. Hydropower and nuclear gave 82.7% of domestic generation in 2025, and reservoirs were low in July 2026.68

    How secure is power?Reported

  4. The self-sufficiency rate is not bound. Drought aid of CHF 54 million was offered in 2026.3357

    How secure is food?Not bound

  5. About one-fifth of stations hit record lows for the season in April to July 2026.1920

    How exposed is water?Reported

  6. A small glacier under load can destroy a village in minutes. Insured damage was CHF 255 million.1416

    What did Blatten show?Reported

  7. Heat caused an estimated 326 deaths in 2024 and 542 in 2023, and people aged 65 or over now outnumber those under 20.1718

    Who carries the strain?Reported

  8. A dry year with low reservoirs and river flows hitting hydropower, winter imports, farms and forests. SCN-CHE-DRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of Swiss monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and the Rhine at Basel flowed less in July than in summer 2003.

Figure S.1Reservoir fill in July 2026 against the 20-year mean (% of capacity)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Reservoir fill, 9 July 202642.7
Reservoir fill, 17 July 202646
20-year mean for mid-July (46 + 16.4, arithmetic)62.4

Sources: Swiss Federal Office of Energy weekly figures, as reported89. The mean is derived from the stated gap of 16.4 points and is not a published figure.

Alpine hydropower and river flows carry electricity, farm water and river navigation at once. A dry year that lowers reservoirs and rivers together raises winter import dependence and farm and forest stress in the same season81920.

S.4At a glance

9.13million

population, 31 December 20251

1.81million

people aged 65+, provisional, 20252

40.1MtCO₂e

greenhouse gases, 20243

55.5%

hydropower share of generation, 20256

7%

forest area protected, 202225

1.4%

GDP growth, 202530

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Switzerland’s risk: Alpine ice and snow set the water, power and slope hazards together, and public finances are strong.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a dry summer, a hot week or a closed road.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured hazard losses sit with a private pool, and the IMF frames fiscal room.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Switzerland holds long weather, glacier and energy records, and thinner evidence on groundwater, reserves and service continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Switzerland’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Federal Council (ed.), “Population growth slowed slightly in 2025”, release on final STATPOP results of the Federal Statistical Office (permanent resident population 9,127,100 on 31 December 2025, up 0.8%). Swiss Confederation, Neuchâtel, 20 August 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/eHho7S2A2revQdhyPSYmt, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  3. 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
  4. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  7. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  8. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  9. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  10. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  14. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
  15. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  18. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  19. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Switzerland Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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