Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table14 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-CHE-CLI-001

    Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows

    Driver
    snow deficit, dry spring and heat across the Plateau and the Alps
    Exposure
    hydropower, river and lake levels, pastures, forests
    Vulnerability
    winter import dependence; thin groundwater monitoring22
    Capacity
    reservoir storage reported weekly8; reserve status not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → ENE, FOO, BIO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHE-CLI-002

    Rock, ice or debris avalanche above a settlement

    Driver
    rock failure, glacier load and permafrost change
    Exposure
    Alpine villages, roads, rail and power lines
    Vulnerability
    settlements in the run-out zone; a scenario of 5 million m³ is analysed24
    Capacity
    monitoring and evacuation worked at Blatten; one death outside the zone1415
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHE-HLT-003

    Heatwave load on health services and older residents

    Driver
    hotter summers and tropical nights
    Exposure
    cities and Ticino, which was particularly affected in 202417
    Vulnerability
    ageing population2
    Capacity
    heat-mortality monitoring runs to July 202617
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. InferredEQL 2RSK-CHE-ENE-004

    Prolonged winter power shortage

    Driver
    low reservoirs, import limits and plant outages
    Exposure
    households, industry, rail, health facilities
    Vulnerability
    winter demand above domestic generation
    Capacity
    national risk analysis treats a 30% shortfall for 12 weeks24
    Cascade
    ENE → all
    Horizon
    seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDClimate and Innovation Act sets net zero by 2050 and interim targets438
Monitoring and observationEXISTSfederal drought platform, hydrological and glacier monitoring used in this edition131922
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: MeteoSwiss and federal natural hazard portal warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational risk analysis with 44 hazard dossiers published in 202624
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSreservoir storage reported weekly and covering about 20% of winter-half demand8; winter reserve status not bound
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: cantonal and federal civil protection event reports · blocker: not reviewed
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: grid, rail and road operator restoration records for Blatten · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryEXISTSinsurers had paid more than 80% of insured sums for total losses about four months after Blatten16
AdaptationLISTEDadaptation strategy 2026–2031 with 30 areas of action adopted 28 October 2026, after evidence close32
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: federal and cantonal social-protection programme data · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceEXISTSprivate insurers’ natural hazard pool covered Blatten losses16
Institutional coordinationLISTEDConfederation, cantons, communes and operators named as joint actors in the national risk analysis24
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: grid, rail and dam asset registers · blocker: not mapped at public-safe resolution
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and civil protection workforce data · blocker: not reviewed
Research capacityEXISTSETH Zurich and WSL glacier, snow and slope research published1421
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22K. F. Brandt and S. Pasino (eds.), “How much water is left under Switzerland? Nobody can say yet” (more than 80% of drinking water from larger underground sources; 42 monitored springs; whole country at the highest drought danger level on 6 August 2026). swissinfo.ch, 24 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-solutions/how-much-water-is-left-under-switzerland-nobody-can-say-yet/91915172, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the federal environment office is the cited source.back
  2. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  3. 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
  4. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only.back
  6. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
  8. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Confederation (ed.), Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security (Climate and Innovation Act), SR 814.310. Fedlex, Bern, adopted 30 September 2022; in force 1 January 2025 per [4]. Observation year 2022. Bibliographic details from memory; check against the Fedlex text.back
  10. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  12. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  13. 32POST-CLOSE, context only: Federal Council (ed.), “Le Conseil fédéral adopte la nouvelle stratégie d’adaptation et des mesures relatives à la canicule et à la sécheresse” (strategy 2026–2031; 30 areas of action; 56 measures). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 28 October 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/fb6zlfWM0Cst, accessed 2026-11-03. Published after evidence close.back
  14. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Switzerland Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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