Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of Swiss monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and the Rhine at Basel flowed less in July than in summer 2003.

Figure 2.1Reservoir fill in July 2026 against the 20-year mean (% of capacity)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Reservoir fill, 9 July 202642.7
Reservoir fill, 17 July 202646
20-year mean for mid-July (46 + 16.4, arithmetic)62.4

Sources: Swiss Federal Office of Energy weekly figures, as reported89. The mean is derived from the stated gap of 16.4 points and is not a published figure.

Implication

Alpine hydropower and river flows carry electricity, farm water and river navigation at once. A dry year that lowers reservoirs and rivers together raises winter import dependence and farm and forest stress in the same season81920.

What would move it

Winter snow depth, spring and summer rainfall, reservoir fill reported weekly by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy and Rhine flow at Basel would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 40.1 MtCO₂e in 2024, 27.3% below 1990 and 22.3% below when land use is included; transport emitted 13.4 MtCO₂e and international aviation and maritime a further 5.5 MtCO₂e outside the 2030 target.3

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The second contribution sets a cut of at least 65% by 2035 on 1990 as a 2031–2035 budget of 106.8 MtCO₂e, and the Climate and Innovation Act, adopted by 59.07% of voters in 2023, sets net zero by 2050.4531

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    On 28 May 2025 the Birch Glacier collapsed under about 3 million m³ of rock debris, buried most of Blatten and caused one death; insured damage was put at CHF 255 million.141516

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015, and the contribution states that glaciers have lost over 65% of their volume since 1850.134

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    In 2025 hydropower supplied 55.5% of domestic electricity generation, nuclear power 27.2% and photovoltaics 11.8%, and final electricity consumption was 57,970 GWh.6

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Hydropower output fell 22.5% in 2025 after a record 2024, and reservoirs stood at 46% in mid-July 2026, 16.4 points below the 20-year average; reservoirs can cover about 20% of winter-half demand.689

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Between 1 April and 31 July 2026 about one-fifth of monitoring stations recorded their lowest level for the period since measurements began, and Lake Zurich reached its lowest level since 1951 on 19 August 2026.192021

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    The Federal Council offered CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans to farm businesses after the 2026 drought, and the contribution text sets a goal that domestic production covers at least 50% of food needs.334

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Heat-attributable deaths were 623 in June to August 2022, 542 in May to September 2023 and 326 in May to September 2024.1718

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    GDP grew 1.4% in 2025 and inflation was 0.2%, and the IMF assessed the debt brake as appropriate while noting that the shift to a low-carbon economy will raise spending needs.282930

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    About a third of species and nearly half of habitat types are threatened, and 7% of forest area was protected by 2022 against a federal goal of 10% by 2030.2527

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows that cuts hydropower and raises winter import dependence at the same time as farm and forest stress. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  2. 9Keystone-SDA (ed.), “Swiss reservoirs, which are relatively low, must hope for a wet autumn” (42.7% full, 15.1 points below the 20-year average per the SFOE; Valais holds about 45% of storage). swissinfo.ch, 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoirs-which-are-relatively-low-must-hope-for-a-wet-autumn/91724015, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
  3. 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
  4. 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
  5. 3Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) (ed.), “Inventaire des gaz à effet de serre pour l’année 2024: légère baisse des émissions” (40.1 MtCO₂e, 27.3% below 1990; buildings 8.8, industry 8.9, transport 13.4 MtCO₂e; international aviation and maritime 5.5 MtCO₂e). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 13 April 2026. Observation year 2024. https://www.admin.ch/fr/newnsb/0x0fdVaborNCilTCosvky, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Switzerland: 2035 NDC assessment (rating insufficient; share of the target met abroad not disclosed; submission on 29 January 2025). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, February 2025. Observation year 2025. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/switzerland/2035-ndc/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 31Swissvotes, University of Bern (ed.), Vote 663: Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security, popular vote of 18 June 2023 (59.07% yes; turnout 42.54%). Swissvotes, Bern, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://swissvotes.ch/vote/663.00, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Wikipedia contributors, 2025 Blatten glacier collapse (28 May 2025; evacuations from 17 and 19 May; one death outside the evacuation zone). Wikimedia Foundation, 2025–2026. Observation year 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Blatten_glacier_collapse, accessed 2026-11-03. Reference compilation, not a primary source; used for the casualty and evacuation facts only.back
  11. 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
  12. 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
  16. 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 29Federal Council (ed.), “International Monetary Fund praises the resilience of the Swiss economy” (debt brake appropriate; spending pressure from pensions, health and the low-carbon transition). Swiss Confederation, Bern, 25 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/9CnjDEMpjWvY_tyiCF7az, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 30State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) (ed.), GDP 2025 (growth 1.4%; fourth quarter +0.2%), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 16 February 2026. SECO, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/the-swiss-economy-grew-slightly-at-the-end-of-last-year/90949789, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release.back
  21. 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
  22. 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Switzerland Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Switzerland’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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