- Switzerland 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Monitoring stations at a record low for the season, 1 April to 31 July 2026
≈20%About one-fifth of stations. Eleven stations set historic lows in July. The Plateau and Jura were hit hardest.
ENE · Energy
Change in domestic hydropower output, 2025 on 2024
−22.5%37,485 GWh in 2025 after 48,337 GWh in 2024. Imports were 30,721 GWh and exports 30,700 GWh.
Reported2025SFOE energy statistics6
FOO · Food
Self-sufficiency rate of food supply
Not boundFSO and FOAG · blocker: official release not openedThe 2026 drought led the Federal Council to offer CHF 54 million in interest-free farm loans33. The self-sufficiency rate was not retrieved from a primary release.
Not boundn/aFOAG57
HLT · Health
Heat-attributable deaths, May to September 2024
326deathsThe 95% interval is 171 to 471. The estimate for 2023 was 542. Ticino was particularly affected in 2024.
Reported2024Swiss TPH monitoring17
BIO · Biodiversity
Forest area designated as protected area
7%By 2022, against a federal goal of 10% by 2030. The national protected-area share of territory was not bound.
Reported2022FOEN and WSL Forest Report25
SYS · Cross-system
Insured damage from the Blatten rock and ice avalanche, 28 May 2025
255CHF millionAbout CHF 240 million fell within the insurers’ natural hazard pool. One death was reported.
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Source of Alpine rivers; 97% of people use safely managed drinking water; record-low flows and lakes in 2026. | WAT → ENE · WAT ↔ FOO | Reported EQL 4 |
| ENE | Hydropower 55.5% and nuclear 27.2% of generation; all gas imported; reservoirs low in July 2026. | ENE ← WAT · ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Farm and pasture stress in 2026; self-sufficiency rate not bound. | FOO ← WAT, CLI | Not bound EQL 2 |
| HLT | Heat deaths 326 in 2024 and 542 in 2023; people aged 65+ outnumber under-20s. | HLT ← CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | About a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened; 7% of forest protected. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Glacier loss, rock avalanche and drought in successive years; 2.8 °C above pre-industrial. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 4 |
| INF | Rail, road and river navigation depend on water levels and stable slopes; wider networks not mapped. | INF → all | Inferred EQL 2 |
| FIN | Strong public finances per the IMF; insured hazard losses carried by a private pool. | FIN ← CLI | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Cyber and digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 1 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 1 |
| MIN | Mineral and metal supply chains not mapped in this edition. | MIN ← TRD | Expert input EQL 1 |
| TRD | Electricity trade with neighbours was nearly balanced over 2025: imports 30,721 GWh and exports 30,700 GWh. | TRD → ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound dry-year, reservoir and import stress | drought with low reservoirs | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | record lows in 20261920 | drought; low flows | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | hydropower 55.5%, reservoirs 46%68 | winter supply | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | drought loans33; rate not bound | dry summers | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | heat deaths and ageing172 | heatwaves | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | IMF Article IV28; hazard insurance16 | fiscal and insured loss | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | drinking water and sanitation coverage23 | service strain | GOOD |
| GS-07 | Climate | glacier loss and warming41213 | heat, drought, slope failure | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | national risk analysis24 | rock avalanche; flood; power shortage | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | rail, road and river transport; not mapped | low river; slope failure | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban heat and cloudburst; not bound | heat and surface runoff | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | threatened species and forest protection2527 | habitat loss | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | glacier and snow monitoring used1321 | continuity | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped37 | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | climate act and electricity agreement3110 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed glacier and heat research1418 | translation to cantons | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 19FOEN (ed.), statement to Keystone-SDA on drought: historic lows at eleven stations in July 2026; about one-fifth of stations at a record low for the period from 1 April to 31 July. Published by blue News, 13 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/drought-causes-swiss-water-levels-to-drop-to-record-lows-li.3561545, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of a federal statement.back
- 20L. Jorio (ed.), “Drought in Switzerland: Europe’s water tower runs dry” (Lake Zurich lowest since records began in 1951 on 19 August 2026; Lake Constance 394.97 m on 11 August, 27 cm below the previous 1991–2020 low; Rhine at Basel in July below summer 2003). swissinfo.ch, 21 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/drought-in-switzerland-europes-water-tower-runs-dry/91913797, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; FOEN is the cited data source.back
- 6Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) (ed.), Energy Consumption in Switzerland 2025, extract from the Swiss Overall Energy Statistics 2025 (ENSTAT). SFOE, Bern, June 2026. Observation year 2025. https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/en/publication/download/12648, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33Federal Council (ed.), drought and heat aid package (CHF 54 million in interest-free operating loans for farm businesses in 2026; CHF 17.5 million more for forests in 2027), as reported by Keystone-SDA on blue News, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/federal-council-puts-together-a-multi-million-aid-package-to-combat-drought-and-heat-li.3576293, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; Parliament decides on the funding.back
- 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Office for Agriculture (FOAG) and Federal Statistical Office (eds.), Agrarbericht and food supply balance: self-sufficiency rate. Bern and Neuchâtel, 2025–2026. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the self-sufficiency gap; a press report of a 2023 gross rate was seen but not used.back
- 17Swiss TPH (ed.), HiMOMO: Monitoring heat-related deaths (542 deaths May to September 2023, 95% interval 364 to 715; 326 deaths May to September 2024, 95% interval 171 to 471). Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, for the Federal Office for the Environment, 2023–2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://www.swisstph.ch/en/projects/project-detail/project/monitoring-heat-related-deaths, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25FOEN and WSL (eds.), Forest Report 2025: Development, Condition and Use of Swiss Forests (1.3 million hectares; 7% of forest area protected by 2022; goal of 10% by 2030). FOEN and WSL, Bern and Birmensdorf, 2025. Observation year 2022. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/en/sd-web/VL0obw1MJTg3/waldbericht_2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Synthesis chapter read.back
- 16Insurers’ natural hazard pool (ed.), annual financial statements: Blatten landslide, total insured damage CHF 255 million (CHF 240 million within the pool; more than 80% of insured sums for total losses paid after four months), as reported by swissinfo.ch, 26 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/blatten-landslide-caused-damage-totalling-255-million-francs/91473640, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of pool statements.back
- 14D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Jacquemart and M. Werder (eds.), Fact sheet for the now-collapsed Birchgletscher, Switzerland, document 88028-VAW-2025-06. VAW, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://raonline.ch/pages/edu/pdfNW/VAW_BirchgletscherFS2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8SRF and swissinfo.ch (eds.), “Swiss reservoir water levels lowest in 20 years” (46% full, 16.4 points below the 20-year average, per the SFOE weekly report; reservoirs cover about 20% of winter-half demand). swissinfo.ch, 17 July 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/swiss-reservoir-water-levels-lowest-in-20-years/91760665, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of SFOE figures.back
- 2Federal Statistical Office (ed.), provisional population results 2025 (permanent resident population 9,124,300; 1,811,000 aged 65 or over and 1,802,000 under 20), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 2 April 2026. FSO, Neuchâtel, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://swissinfo.ch/eng/demographics/population-the-proportion-of-seniors-exceeds-that-of-young-people-in-switzerland/91200057, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report of the release; provisional figures.back
- 28International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 26/281: IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Switzerland (2025 growth 1.4% unadjusted; inflation 0.2%; current account 6.4% of GDP). IMF, Washington, DC, 1 September 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 data portal: Switzerland (safely managed drinking water 97% and sanitation 100% in 2024; water stress 6.5% in 2023). UN-Water, 2025. Observation year 2024. https://sdg6data.org/country-or-area/Switzerland, accessed 2026-11-03. The portal does not name the source agency for each indicator.back
- 4Switzerland (ed.), Switzerland’s second nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement 2031–2035. Federal Office for the Environment for the UNFCCC, Bern, January 2025. Observation years 2022–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-01/Switzerland%20second%20NDC%202031-2035.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12MeteoSwiss (ed.), national temperature for 2025 (1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 norm; fourth-warmest year since 1864), as reported by Keystone-SDA on swissinfo.ch, 19 December 2025. MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/climate-adaptation/2025-is-the-fourth-warmest-year-in-switzerland-since-measurements-began/90668352, accessed 2026-11-03. Press report; the final annual bulletin was not rendered.back
- 13ETH Zurich (ed.), Swiss glaciers lost almost 3% of their volume in 2025 and about a quarter since 2015 (GLAMOS monitoring, Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation), as published by ScienceDaily, 2 October 2025. ETH Zurich, 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251001092211.htm, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS) (ed.), Katastrophen und Notlagen Schweiz 2025: Bericht zur nationalen Risikoanalyse (KNS 2025; 44 hazard dossiers; pandemic and prolonged power shortage the largest risks). BABS, Bern, February 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.babs.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/PpZZg4eroKXo/KNS-2025-Risikobericht-final_de.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Report read in part (summary and results chapter).back
- 27FOEN (ed.), Biodiversity: state of biodiversity (about a third of species and nearly half of habitat types threatened). Swiss Confederation, Bern, page current February 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/en/biodiversity, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (ed.), “The heat is gone, but the drought remains” (interview with M. Brunner; Rhine, Aare and Lake Constance at record lows; snowpack at most half the long-term average in the Dischma Valley). SLF, Davos, 12 June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.slf.ch/en/news/the-heat-is-gone-but-the-drought-remains/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) (ed.), Annual Report 2025. Swiss Confederation, Bern, 16 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Named in search results only; no figure is used. Source that would fill the cyber-incident gap.back
- 31Swissvotes, University of Bern (ed.), Vote 663: Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation and Strengthening Energy Security, popular vote of 18 June 2023 (59.07% yes; turnout 42.54%). Swissvotes, Bern, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://swissvotes.ch/vote/663.00, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Swiss Federal Office of Energy (ed.), Electricity agreement Switzerland–EU (signed 2 March 2026; dispatch to Parliament March 2026). SFOE, Bern, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/en/electricity-agreement-switzerland-eu, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, E. de Schrijver, D. L. Schumacher, M. S. Ragettli, E. M. Fischer and S. I. Seneviratne, heat-related mortality in Switzerland, summer 2022 (623 deaths, 3.5% of deaths; about 60% attributable to human-induced warming), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, as summarised in a University of Bern release, 4 July 2023. Observation year 2022. https://mediarelations.unibe.ch/media_releases/2023/media_releases_2023/global_warming_caused_60_percent_of_swiss_heat_deaths_in_the_summer_of_2022/index_eng.html, accessed 2026-11-03.back