Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- التقارير
- مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
- إصدار خط الأساس 2026
تقرير المملكة المتحدة عن المخاطر النظمية والصمود 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the United Kingdom report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- المكتب
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- الناشر الرسمي
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- United Kingdom 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026
- الحالة
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
- Family · class
- البلد النظم Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- إغلاق الأدلة
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1
- قابلية إعادة الإنتاج
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- المراجعة
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- ليس مخصصًا لـ
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- السجل
- record NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- التصحيحات
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- استخدام الذكاء الاصطناعي
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- الترخيص
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-GBR
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990.
Where do emissions stand?مُبلَّغ عنه
2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022.
Is the climate already changing?مُبلَّغ عنه
Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.
Who is most exposed to heat?مُبلَّغ عنه
About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.
How large is flood exposure?مُبلَّغ عنه
England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.
Is water supply secure?السيناريو
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes النظم and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer in southern England
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (42)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Official statistics and agency data
- 6.6Energy, nature and industry
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1الأساليب
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, the four nations and English regions
- B.5United Kingdom system card
- B.6Licences of each kind of material
- B.7This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water نقص are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.
CLI-001 · WAT-006 · INF-010 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- الإصدار
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- إغلاق الأدلة
- الحالة
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- المحرر
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- الناشر الرسمي
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- الطبعة السابقة
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| الدور | المساهمة | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the United Kingdom system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| المنهجية | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | التقارير editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| الرقابة | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
المراجعة قبل الإصدار
| المرور | النطاق | By | الحالة |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | مجدول |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | مجدول |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | مجدول |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | مجدول |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
طباعة
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF96 pages785 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
bfa03982b0bc66e17245ddb7b3ecd02e69ab0ef3434eb6ba24284b59a7575b1aPDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF104 pages796 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
9d0ab1240d96660d02e453970e8cdff103bab916e870f616af91ac847b173700
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
16 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
db5359cdf7ec1dc879118fd08afc53943bf0aa4c3b0f2aa42245f471193d7daaIndicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
a071c110d675b1cb1f725526b38e80c5544896398b69769107deaea7b940f1faFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
7f65cb9f1104a7893088607b4e5fc2e01628dffc67049551cf81e5457be812fa
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
b55629fce99c956ec97f7483ad0bbb06fee1ab76984ffac1fc9b0bf476c46993Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
75d5fc5e4d1caafe081ff6c65908f17be23c50d0c7ecca3abc9d265ebafbe69eCitation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
80f398569acbb71816e364d9e21264230f46dadfd39f50cc93b9f99e2d21856d
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
الرصد
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- التقاريرCAN
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرUSA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرFRA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرDEU
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرITA
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - التقاريرJPN
مخاطر النظم القُطرية وقدرتها على الصمود
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
إصدار خط الأساس 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI النظم في المركز العالمي للمخاطر والابتكار (Global Centre for Risk and Innovation، GCRI). وما تعرفه عن هذا الموضوع يمكن أن يصبح دليلًا أو حالة أو تصويبًا في الإصدار القادم، منسوبًا إليك ومنشورًا بترخيص CC BY 4.0 متى كان عملك أنت. وإذا أُرسل إلى مكتب غير مختص، أُحيل إلى المكتب المختص ولم يُرفض.
- البريد الإلكترونيالبوابة GW-GCRIأرسله من هذه الصفحةدليل أو تصحيح أو حالة أو أسلوب أو مراجعة أو ترجمة أو مدخل لملف قُطري. يصل موسومًا بهذه الصفحة، فيتلقاه المحرر المسؤول عنها.
- Zenodoإيداع مفتوحأودِعه وقدّمه إلى المجتمعانشر سجلك الخاص على Zenodo بمعرّف ORCID iD الخاص بك، ثم قدّمه إلى مجتمع Reports هناك. يراجعه القيّمون، ويبقى معرّف DOI ملكًا لك.
- التقاريرGCRIاطّلع على المكتب الذي يتلقى ما لديكيفتح جدول التوجيه صفحة المساهمة: ما لديك، والمكتب الذي يتلقاه، وكيف تُراجَع كل مساهمة وتُنسَب، والترخيص.
لا ترسل أبدًا بيانات شخصية أو تفاصيل حساسة عن البنية التحتية أو أي شيء لا يحق لك مشاركته. تُراجَع المساهمة قبل استخدامها؛ ولا يمنح إرسالها أي حقوق تأليف أو تحرير، ولا تشتري الرعاية أي نتيجة أبدًا.
Reports · GCRI
Bring evidence to the next edition.
Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
What you can do from this page.
- ReaderNew to the reports? A short guide to reading an edition.ابدأ من هنا
- ContributorYour contributions to this edition and the reviews open on it are listed below the edition.ساهم
- المراجعReview for this desk; verified reviews are credited.كن مراجعًا
- Editor, steward or boardQueues, decisions and production are in the workspace.مساحة عملي
This edition
Contributions and reviews on GBR
- Open contributions to this edition
- 0
- Reviews open on this edition
- 0
Open your account on this site to see your own contributions to this edition and any review invited from you.