Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsKEN

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Kenya 2026

The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ken/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Kenya 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute food insecurity, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people¹²⁵³²³⁵. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt²⁷. The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 80% of the effort conditional on international support²⁷²⁹. In the year to June 2026 electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh, geothermal supplied 40.91% and imports 12.19%, while system losses were 21.38% against an allowable 16.5%²⁵. Water services reach fewer people than power: 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation in 2024, and renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022⁹¹⁰¹¹. About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse) in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier³²³³. The 2024 long-rains floods affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties³⁵. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Kenya’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood and grid shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition answers with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It reads against peer distributions and thresholds, and it decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level.²⁷
Where do emissions stand?Reported
A 2035 target of 35% below a 215 Mt CO₂e business-as-usual level, submitted in April 2025.²⁷²⁹
What has Kenya committed to?Reported
Generation grew 8.44% and geothermal leads, but losses are 21.38% and imports are 12.19% of supply.²⁵
How secure is electricity?Reported
65.6% have at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation.⁹¹⁰
How sound are water services?Reported
Not in the arid counties: about 3.7 million people face IPC Phase 3 or worse.³²³³
Is food supply secure?Reported
478 reported deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods.³⁵
What do floods cost in lives?Reported
Threat status is not bound; 13.9% of land is protected.¹⁶
What is the state of biodiversity?Not bound
A failed rainy season, a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak in the arid counties. SCN-KEN-DRT-01
What does Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%.

Figure S.1Electricity generation by source, FY2025/26 (% of total)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Geothermal		40.91
Hydro		22.65
Wind		12.31
Imports		12.19
Thermal		8.34
Solar, utility scale		3.00

Source: EPRA Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30 June 2026²⁵. Off-grid generation (0.58%) is not shown.

A grid anchored on geothermal and hydropower has low fuel risk and varies with rain for its hydro share. Imports of 1,913.66 GWh, mostly from Ethiopia, add a cross-border dependency. Losses of 21.38% and average outages of 3.23 hours are where the system is thinnest, and curtailment of geothermal energy (392.36 GWh) shows that supply can exceed what the network can carry at some hours²⁵.

S.4At a glance

57.5million

population, 2025¹

32.2%

urban share of population, 2025⁶

113.4Mt CO₂e

total emissions, 2022²⁷

3.0%

adult HIV prevalence, 2024⁴

63.8years

life expectancy at birth, 2024²

47counties

45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 2025¹⁹

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the risk arrives as a failed harvest, a power cut, a water interruption or a flood.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public debt is 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and the World Bank assesses a high risk of debt distress.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Kenya publishes strong open energy statistics and a reviewed national inventory.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Kenya’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate)” (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 1

Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no county.

7 min read2 figures1 table17 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Kenya’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Kenya is a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people, 32.2% of them in towns, and 45.8% of its workers are employed in agriculture¹⁶¹⁹. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: rainfall that swings between flood and drought, an electricity system that depends on geothermal and hydropower plus imports, and a large rural and arid population with thin buffers.

The grid has grown. Generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026, up from 12,652.74 GWh in FY2021/22, and geothermal supplied 40.91%²⁵²⁶. Imports supplied 12.19%, most of them from Ethiopia, and system losses were 21.38% against an allowable 16.5%²⁵. The second climate contribution sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e²⁹.

Water and sanitation are the thinner services. In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% had basic sanitation, and renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022⁹¹⁰¹¹. Two measures of water stress disagree in level because they use different bases: withdrawals were 19.5% of internal resources in 2022 and 11% of renewable resources after environmental flows in 2023¹²³⁷.

The climate layer adds loss of life. The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths and displaced 119,820 households across 46 of 47 counties, many of them the counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought³⁵. Kenya’s transparency report states that droughts have doubled in frequency since 2005 and that 70% of natural disasters are climate-related²⁷.

Food supply is mixed. Maize output rose to 45.8 million bags in 2025, yet about 3.7 million people in the arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, and three counties held about 65% of those in Phase 4³²³³³⁴. Maize retail prices were 15% higher than a year earlier in February 2026³².

This edition therefore reads Kenya’s risk as a property of the couplings between rain, food, health and the grid. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1Where does Kenya’s electricity come from? Generation by source, FY2025/26 (GWh)

Geothermal supplied 6,420.51 GWh of 15,692.81 GWh. Hydro, wind and solar together supplied about 5,957 GWh (ESTIMATED arithmetic). Imports of 1,913.66 GWh were 12.19% of supply, and Ethiopia supplied 1,577.66 GWh of them²⁵.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Geothermal		6420.51
Hydro		3554.31
Wind		1931.72
Imports		1913.66
Thermal		1309.42
Solar, utility scale		471.4

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2026.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-01-003

6,420.51GWh

geothermal generation²⁵

3,554.31GWh

hydro generation²⁵

12.19%

imports in the supply mix²⁵

392.36GWh

geothermal energy curtailed²⁵

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Kenya matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG hydropower · cooling of thermal plants	STRONG rain-fed crops · pasture · irrigation	STRONG drinking water · cholera	MODERATE rift lakes · wetlands · river flows
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	MODERATE fertiliser import · cold chain · irrigation	MODERATE facility power · cold chain	MODERATE charcoal and fuelwood demand
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK bagasse · biomass supply	·	STRONG nutrition · undernourishment	STRONG land conversion · grazing
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG catchments · regulation · filtration	MODERATE catchments for hydropower · biomass	MODERATE pollination · rangeland	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → FOO → HLT
A failed rainy season raises food prices and acute food insecurity, and health services take the load.
Reported arid counties 2026³²³³
02
CLI → WAT → INF
Heavy rain destroys water sources, roads and health facilities.
Reported 2024 long-rains floods³⁵
03
WAT → ENE
Low rainfall cuts hydro output and raises reliance on thermal and imports.
Inferred hydro 22.65% of FY2025/26²⁵
04
ENE → WAT → HLT
Power loss interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to waterborne disease rises.
Inferred losses and outages²⁵ · cholera³³
05
CLI → FIN
Repeated disasters raise fiscal pressure in a country at high risk of debt distress.
Inferred debt and floods²⁴³⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate)” (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%.

Figure 2.1Electricity generation by source, FY2025/26 (% of total)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Geothermal		40.91
Hydro		22.65
Wind		12.31
Imports		12.19
Thermal		8.34
Solar, utility scale		3.00

Source: EPRA Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30 June 2026²⁵. Off-grid generation (0.58%) is not shown.

Implication

What would move it

The first operating year of the 2026 electricity market regulations, hydro output in the 2026 short rains, import contract volumes and the loss trend would each move this finding²⁵.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Total greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.²⁷²⁸
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.²⁷²⁹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011
The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.³⁵

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.²⁵
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
System losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.²⁵

2.4Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.⁹¹⁰¹¹

2.5Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006
About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.³²³³
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007
Agriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.³⁴

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008
Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.²³⁴⁵
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
By early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.³³

2.7Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Forest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.¹⁵¹⁶¹⁷²⁷

2.8Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People with at least basic drinking water

65.6%

Basic sanitation reaches 40.9%. Renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.

Reported2024World Bank⁹

ENE · Energy

Geothermal share of electricity generation

40.9%

Hydro supplied 22.65% and imports 12.19%. Peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW on 29 June 2026.

ReportedFY2025/26EPRA²⁵

FOO · Food

People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties

3.7million

Up 32% on a year earlier. About 545,000 were in Phase 4, Emergency.

ReportedApr to Jun 2026FAO and WHO³²³³

HLT · Health

Life expectancy at birth

63.8years

Adult HIV prevalence was 3.0% and under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births.

Reported2024World Bank²³⁴

BIO · Biodiversity

Ecosystem threat status, national

Not bound

Source: national biodiversity assessment or IUCN country records. Blocker: not retrieved at evidence close. Terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land in 2025¹⁶.

Not boundn/anot bound

SYS · Cross-system

Deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods

478deaths

The rains affected 240,603 households in 46 of 47 counties. Counts differ by source and date.

Reported2024IFRC³⁵

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	About two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Geothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.	ENE → all	Reported EQL 5
FOO	Maize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.	FOO ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Life expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.	HLT ← WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Protected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Deadly floods in 2024 after a prolonged 2021–2023 drought.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	Grid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.	INF → all	Reported EQL 4
FIN	Public debt 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and high risk of debt distress; flood loss and insured share not bound.	FIN ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound in this edition.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Mining linkages to power and water not bound in this edition.	MIN → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	Petroleum products and electricity are imported; food and fertiliser trade not bound in this edition.	TRD → ENE, FOO	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound drought, grid and outbreak stress	arid-county failed season with import shortfall	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	65.6% basic drinking water⁹	service gaps; storage	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	geothermal 40.91% of generation²⁵	hydro swings; losses; imports	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse³²	rainfall; input costs; prices	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	life expectancy 63.8 years²	outbreak load; service continuity	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	public debt 71.3% of GDP³⁰	flood loss; insured share not bound	THIN
GS-06	Development	43.3% poverty at $3.00 a day²⁴	service delivery gaps	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	2035 target submitted²⁹	extreme rain and drought	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	478 deaths in 2024 floods³⁵	warning to response chain	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	system losses 21.38%²⁵	distribution losses; outages	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	32.2% urban share⁶	urban water and power demand	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	13.9% of land protected¹⁶	threat status not bound	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	not reviewed	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	national climate action plan 2023–2027³⁸	coordination between national and county levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	first transparency report reviewed by the UN²⁷	translation to counties	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding across many counties
Driver
enhanced long rains · cut-off events
Exposure
river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
Vulnerability
46 of 47 counties affected in 2024³⁵
Capacity
flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties²⁷
Cascade
CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-FOO-002
Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties
Driver
below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
Exposure
pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
Vulnerability
3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse³²
Capacity
cash transfers for drought response reported²⁷
Cascade
FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-ENE-003
Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution
Driver
hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
Exposure
water works, clinics, industry, households
Vulnerability
losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average²⁵
Capacity
3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak²⁵
Cascade
ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-KEN-HLT-004
Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system
Driver
mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
Exposure
north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
Vulnerability
basic sanitation reaches 40.9%¹⁰
Capacity
national public health institute leads preparedness³³
Cascade
HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
Horizon
annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: building, land-use and drainage records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	the regulator publishes annual and biannual energy statistics; a weekly health emergency report is issued²⁵³³
Early warning	LISTED	Kenya reports earlier flood warnings and use of seasonal forecasts; performance is not bound²⁷
Preparedness and planning	LISTED	the national climate action plan 2023–2027 sets priority actions; its use is not bound³⁸
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: grain, fuel and water reserve data · blocker: not retrieved
Response	NOT BOUND	source: National Disaster Operations Centre after-action records · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical services	LISTED	effective interconnected capacity is above peak demand, but outages averaged 3.23 hours²⁵
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: reconstruction records after the 2024 floods · blocker: not retrieved
Adaptation	LISTED	the national climate action plan covers eight priority areas; delivery is not bound³⁸
Social protection	LISTED	cash transfers for drought shock response are reported; coverage is not bound²⁷
Finance and insurance	LISTED	a national agricultural insurance policy is reported; uptake is not bound²⁷
Institutional coordination	LISTED	a climate directorate coordinates, with county governments planning and budgeting; function is not bound²⁷
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	interconnected capacity of 3,263.02 MW installed and 3,082.00 MW effective²⁵
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: health, water and power workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	a national inventory for 1990–2022 was submitted and reviewed under the UN process²⁷
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 5

Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a below-average rainy season in the arid counties, a hydro and import shortfall of several weeks, and a disease outbreak in an already stretched area
Analogues: arid-county IPC Phase 3 or worse, April to June 2026³²; 2024 floods³⁵; 2026 outbreaks³³
Interventions: none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → FOO
failed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise
GIEWS evidence³²
2
FOO → HLT
acute food insecurity raises demand for nutrition and health services
IPC and WHO evidence³²³³
3
WAT → ENE
low rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap
EPRA generation mix²⁵
4
ENE → WAT
pumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
losses and outages²⁵
5
WAT → HLT
supply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease
basic services and cholera¹⁰³³
6
HLT → FOO
outbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff
WHO weekly report³³

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01 would travel through Kenya’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to food	Failed rains cut pasture and crop output; prices rise. Analogue or source: GIEWS evidence [32].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 1
02 Food to health	Acute food insecurity raises demand for nutrition and health services. Analogue or source: IPC and WHO evidence [32] [33].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 2
03 Water to energy	Low rainfall reduces hydro output; thermal and imports fill the gap. Analogue or source: EPRA generation mix [25].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 3
04 Energy to water	Pumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin. Analogue or source: losses and outages [25].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 4
05 Water to health	Supply gaps and sanitation limits raise exposure to waterborne disease. Analogue or source: basic services and cholera [10] [33].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 5
06 Health to food	Outbreak response competes with food and cash support for the same staff. Analogue or source: WHO weekly report [33].	Edition KEN, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Kenya 2026, scenario SCN-KEN-DRT-01 (2026); Kenya 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

13 min read0 figures8 tables32 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Kenya’s risk: the grid is growing and mostly renewable, but losses are high, water and sanitation reach fewer people, and food insecurity is concentrated in the arid counties. Evidence is strongest for the grid and the inventory, and thinnest for ecosystems and recovery capability.

CLI-001 · ENE-003 · FOO-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the risk arrives as a failed harvest, a power cut, a water interruption or a flood. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how losses and food prices fall on households and counties.

ENE-004 · FOO-006 · CLI-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public debt is 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and the World Bank assesses a high risk of debt distress²⁴³⁰. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-002 · CLI-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

Kenya publishes strong open energy statistics and a reviewed national inventory. The 2027 programme should map grid and water dependencies, test the drought, grid and outbreak pathway at county scale, and bind the missing biodiversity, loss and household-survey series.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Kenya. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Kenya	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Geothermal supplies two-fifths of Kenya’s electricity, and wind, hydro and solar add more. The baseline treats this as a strength and asks what the 21.38% loss rate and the import share mean for resilience.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

A grid built on heat from the ground

Acute food insecurity, outbreaks and drought concentrate in a few north-eastern counties. Every risk object in this edition is read through how a failed season cascades there.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The arid counties carry the risk

The 2024 floods hit many of the counties that the 2021–2023 drought had already weakened. Compound exposure, not single events, is the unit of analysis.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Floods follow drought

Eighty percent of the 2035 cut is conditional on international support, and the 2035 level is higher than the 2030 level. The baseline reports this plainly and judges neither.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

A target that depends on support

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement⁵² · second NDC, 35% below BAU in 2035²⁹	UNFCCC · Kenya	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions target
Climate Change Act 2016, as amended in 2023⁴²	Government of Kenya	national	IN FORCE	climate governance
Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024⁴³	Government of Kenya	national	IN FORCE	carbon markets
Energy Act, 2019²⁶	Government of Kenya	national	IN FORCE	energy regulation
Energy (Electricity Market, Bulk Supply and Open Access) Regulations, 2026²⁵	Government of Kenya · EPRA	national	PUBLISHED 2026	electricity market
Water Act, 2016⁴⁴	Government of Kenya	national	IN FORCE	water resources
Sustainable Waste Management Act, 2022²⁷	Government of Kenya	national	REPORTED POLICY	waste
Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 2013⁴⁵	Government of Kenya	national	IN FORCE	wildlife
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁵¹	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework 2015–2030⁵⁰	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

Kenya submitted its second NDC on 30 April 2025²⁷²⁹
The carbon markets regulations took effect in 2024⁴³
EPRA reports electricity market regulations for 2026²⁵

To watch in 2027

Implementation of the 2035 target and its conditional share²⁹
The first operating year of the electricity market regulations²⁵
Status of the Climate Change Act amendment and carbon-market rules, not verified at evidence close⁴²⁴³

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Kenya’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
IPCC Working Group II, Africa chapter⁴⁸	assessment chapter	2022	context	African impacts
Rapid analysis of the late-2023 Horn of Africa rains⁴⁷	attribution study	2023	context	rainfall extremes
Climate Action Tracker assessments²⁸²⁹	independent assessment	2026	supports	target analysis
Technical expert review of the first transparency report²⁷	UN review	2026	supports	inventory and target

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
National climate action plan 2023–2027, summary record³⁸	Government of Kenya via record	2023	listed	priority areas
Second climate contribution 2031–2035⁴⁶	Government of Kenya	2025	listed	target text
Country Climate and Development Report⁴⁹	World Bank	2022	listed	pathways
Energy profile for Kenya³⁶	IRENA	2025	context	energy supply

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report FY2025/26²⁵	EPRA	2026	supports	grid
Crop monitoring brief³²	FAO GIEWS	2026	supports	food
Weekly situation report³³	WHO Regional Office for Africa	2026	supports	health emergencies
Agriculture survey, May 2026³⁴	Central Bank of Kenya	2026	supports	agriculture output
Census 2019 and Economic Survey 2026³⁹⁴⁰	KNBS	2019 · 2026	listed	not opened

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Network annual report 2024³⁵	IFRC	2025	supports	floods
World Bank indicator series¹ to²³	World Bank	2022–2025	supports	profile and services
Country series³⁰³¹	IMF	2026	context	macro
SDG 6 country data³⁷	UN-Water	2024	supports	water stress and sanitation

Where the evidence agrees

Geothermal is the largest single source of Kenyan electricity²⁵²⁸
Agriculture is the largest driver of land-use emissions²⁸
The arid and semi-arid counties are where acute food insecurity concentrates³²³³

Where it is unsettled

How many deaths the 2024 floods caused: counts differ by source and date³⁵⁴¹
How to compare water stress: two series give 19.5% and 11% on different bases¹²³⁷
How the 2035 target compares with the 2030 level: the two rest on different business-as-usual paths²⁷²⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
52UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. From memory.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, 2016, as amended in 2023. Nairobi. Title and status from memory and search summaries; check the text and the Kenya Gazette.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024, Legal Notice 84. Nairobi, 2024. Title and effect from search summaries; the page returned no text.back
26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Water Act, 2016. Nairobi, 2016. Title and status from memory.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 2013. Nairobi, 2013. Title and status from memory.back
51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. From memory.back
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. From memory.back
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. From memory.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Imperial College London and partners (World Weather Attribution), rapid analysis of the late-2023 rains in the Horn of Africa. December 2023. Taken from a search result summary.back
28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035). Submission to the UNFCCC, 30 April 2025. Title from a database record; target figures are read through [27] and [29].back
49UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Kenya Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC; year not confirmed. The page was reached only as a catalogue listing.back
36International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Kenya. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, September 2025, observation years 2017–2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census. KNBS, Nairobi, 2019. The site did not respond at evidence close; no census figure is used in this edition.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2026. KNBS, Nairobi, April 2026. Figures attributed to it are read through the Central Bank of Kenya survey [34].back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter)” (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Kenya, observation year 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
31International Monetary Fund (ed.), Kenya and the IMF, country page (last Article IV Executive Board consultation 17 January 2024; outstanding purchases and loans SDR 2,803.76 million at 31 March 2026). IMF, Washington DC, observation year 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (ed.), Eastern Africa: Heavy rains and flooding, Flash Update 4, 30 May 2024. OCHA, Geneva, 2024. Figure of 315 deaths at 29 May 2024 taken from a search result summary; the page returned an access error.back
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a failed rainy season in the arid counties spread through food prices, health services and displacement, and how long would recovery take?
INI-KEN-FOO-01 · arid-county compound stress; first output: dependency graph for three counties.
A-02
How exposed is power supply to hydrological swings, import contracts and curtailment of geothermal energy?
INI-KEN-ENE-02 · grid exposure; first output: supply-mix and import table.
A-03
Where do distribution losses fall, and what do they cost in energy?
INI-KEN-ENE-03 · system losses; first output: loss-by-region table.
A-04
Where do water and sanitation gaps overlap with outbreak counties?
INI-KEN-WAT-04 · service gaps and outbreaks; first output: county-by-county register.
A-05
Where do flood losses fall on households, counties and the national budget?
INI-KEN-FIN-05 · flood protection gap; first output: peril-by-county loss table.
A-06
How do river basins and reservoirs perform under multi-year drought?
INI-KEN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.
A-07
What is the condition of the ecosystems that supply water and energy, and how is it changing?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note on catchments and rangelands.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-KEN-FOO-01	Arid-county compound stress	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-KEN-ENE-02	Grid exposure and imports	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-KEN-ENE-03	System losses	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-KEN-WAT-04	Service gaps and outbreaks	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-KEN-FIN-05	Flood protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-KEN-FOO-01a	Three-county dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-KEN-2027-01	Drought, grid and outbreak Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Kenya is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Kenya from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-KEN-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-KEN-2027-01 · Drought, grid and outbreak Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · generation mix	INI-KEN-ENE-02	grid exposure	PUBLIC
ENE-004 · losses	INI-KEN-ENE-03	loss and energy	PUBLIC
WAT-005 · services	INI-KEN-WAT-04	service gaps and outbreaks	PUBLIC
FOO-006 · food insecurity	INI-KEN-FOO-01	arid-county stress	PUBLIC
CLI-011 · floods	INI-KEN-FIN-05 · key F review	flood protection gap	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · outbreaks	research question A-04	service continuity	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-KEN-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather warnings and rainfall	Kenya Meteorological Department	daily	CLI findings
Drought early warning bulletins	National Drought Management Authority	monthly	FOO-006
Energy and petroleum statistics	Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority	annual and biannual	ENE-003
Food security analysis	IPC and FAO GIEWS	periodic	FOO-006
Weekly emergency situation report	WHO Regional Office for Africa and Ministry of Health	weekly	HLT-009
Price and agriculture surveys	Central Bank of Kenya	periodic	FOO-007
Population and economic statistics	Kenya National Bureau of Statistics	per release	profile

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-KEN-001	Generation up 8.44% with a new peak demand²⁵	CORROBORATED	ENE · FIN	risk object RSK-KEN-ENE-003
SIG-KEN-002	3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties³²³³	CORROBORATED	FOO · HLT	initiative A-01
SIG-KEN-003	Concurrent outbreaks reported in June 2026³³	CORROBORATED	HLT · WAT	initiative A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water and sanitation reach fewer people than electricity does, and renewable freshwater per person is low.

65.6%

basic drinking water, 2024⁹

40.9%

basic sanitation, 2024¹⁰

381.5m³

renewable freshwater per person, 2022¹¹

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Drinking water	65.6% of people with at least basic service	⁹	Reported
Sanitation	40.9% basic; 36% safely managed	¹⁰³⁷	Reported
Freshwater	381.5 m³ per person; withdrawals 19.5% of internal resources	¹¹¹²	Reported
Water stress	11% of renewable resources after environmental flows, 2023	³⁷	Reported
Reservoir and river storage	storage and flow not bound	Water Resources Authority	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
WAT → HLT drinking water and cholera
CLI → WAT drought and flood
WAT → ENE hydropower

Evidence to bind in 2027

reservoir and river storage
utility performance and water loss

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Geothermal leads a grid that grew 8.44% in a year, but losses are high and imports supply 12.19%.

15,692.81GWh

generation, FY2025/26²⁵

2,514.28MW

peak demand, 29 June 2026²⁵

21.38%

system losses²⁵

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Generation mix	geothermal 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31%, imports 12.19%	²⁵	Reported
Capacity	3,263.02 MW installed and 3,082.00 MW effective, interconnected	²⁵	Reported
Losses and outages	21.38% losses; 3.23 hours average outage	²⁵	Reported
Access	77% of people with electricity; 32% with clean cooking, 2024	¹³¹⁴	Reported
Reservoir storage	hydro storage not bound	KenGen and WRA	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
WAT → ENE hydro output
ENE → BIO charcoal and fuelwood demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

hydro reservoir storage
import contract terms

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Maize output rose in 2025, yet acute food insecurity is concentrated in the arid counties.

3.7million

IPC Phase 3 or worse, Apr to Jun 2026³²

45.8million bags

maize output, 2025³⁴

34.9%

prevalence of undernourishment, 2024²¹

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Acute food insecurity	about 3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse; 545,000 in Phase 4	³²³³	Reported
Maize	45.8 million bags in 2025, up from 44.8 million	³⁴	Reported
Prices	retail maize 15% higher year on year, February 2026	³²	Reported
Undernourishment	34.9% of people, 2024 series value	²¹	Reported
Farm economy	agriculture is 23.2% of GDP (2025); cereal yield 1,693 kg per hectare (2024)	¹⁸²⁰	Reported
Household survey	county-level food insecurity not bound	KNBS household survey	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → FOO drought and flood
ENE → FOO fertiliser and cold chain
WAT → FOO rain-fed yield
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

maize output in tonnes
county household food insecurity
import dependence by commodity

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy is 63.8 years, and 2026 brought concurrent outbreaks alongside the drought emergency.

63.8years

life expectancy, 2024²

38.8per 1,000

under-five mortality, 2024³

74.2per 1,000

malaria incidence at risk, 2024⁵

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Life expectancy	63.8 years at birth	²	Reported
Child mortality	38.8 per 1,000 live births	³	Reported
HIV	adult prevalence 3.0%	⁴	Reported
Outbreaks	mpox 1,141 cases, 19 deaths; measles 445; dengue 1,269 cases	³³	Reported
Water-related illness	national series not bound	Ministry of Health records	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT water and sanitation
ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
CLI → HLT floods and heat
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

water-related illness series
clinic continuity in outages

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest and protected-area figures are bound; ecosystem threat status is not.

6.6%

forest area, World Bank series, 2024¹⁵

13.9%

terrestrial protected areas, 2025¹⁶

0.7%

marine protected areas, 2025¹⁷

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Forest	6.6% of land on the World Bank series; 8.83% in 2021 on the national measure	¹⁵²⁷	Reported
Protection	13.9% of land and 0.7% of marine area	¹⁶¹⁷	Reported
Threat status	share of ecosystem types or species threatened not bound	IUCN and national assessment	NOT BOUND
Wildlife	national wildlife counts not bound	Kenya Wildlife Service	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT catchments
BIO → ENE hydropower catchments
WAT → BIO lake and river flows
FOO → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

ecosystem threat status
wildlife counts
condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to electricity (% of population)” (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)” (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)” (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP)” (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Cereal yield (kg per hectare)” (AG.YLD.CREL.KG), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Generation growth since FY2021/22	15,692.81 ÷ 12,652.74 − 1	≈ +24.0%
(2)	2030 target level from the 2020 business-as-usual level	143 × (1 − 0.32)	≈ 97.24 Mt
(3)	2035 level at 35% below business-as-usual	215 × (1 − 0.35), minus the 2030 target level of 97.24	≈ 139.75 Mt; ≈ 42.5 Mt above the 2030 level
(4)	Geothermal energy curtailed, as a share of geothermal energy delivered	392.36 ÷ 6,420.51	≈ 6.1%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-KEN-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Kenya as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for county or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 54 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-KEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population, life expectancy, services	2024–2025	World Bank, 2026 vintage	annual	next vintage
GHG inventory	2022	Feb 2026	biennial	next transparency report
2035 climate target	2025	Apr 2025	periodic	next NDC cycle
Electricity statistics	FY2025/26	Sep 2026	annual	biannual report, Mar 2027
Food insecurity (IPC)	Apr to Jun 2026	May 2026	periodic	next IPC update
Health emergencies	to 7 Jun 2026	Jun 2026	weekly	weekly
Agriculture output	2025	May 2026	periodic	Economic Survey 2027
Flood deaths and households	2024	Aug 2025	per event	per event
Protected areas	2025	2026 vintage	annual	next vintage

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	PARTIAL	rainfall extremes by county; sector emissions
Energy	PARTIAL	reservoir storage; import contracts
Food	PARTIAL	household survey; maize in tonnes
Health	PARTIAL	water-related illness; census counts
Water	THIN	storage, flow and utility performance
Biodiversity	THIN	threat status and condition
Finance	THIN	insured share of loss
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Annual, year to 30 June 2026. Role: binds ENE-003, ENE-004 and the generation chart; read in full.

EVD-KEN-001

EPRA statistics report FY2025/26²⁵

Issued under the UNFCCC, report FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN, 13 February 2026. Periodic. Role: binds CLI-001 and the target level; read in full.

EVD-KEN-002

Technical expert review of the first transparency report²⁷

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-KEN-001	EVD-KEN-002
Completeness	all generation, capacity and loss series	inventory 1990–2022, all sectors
Timeliness	about 3 months after year end	about 38 months after the inventory year
Revision	prior-year values restated in each report	back-revised with each inventory
Method transparency	definitions stated in the report	review methodology published
External validation	not stated in the report	UN technical review in May 2025

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

EPRA biannual report, March 2027²⁵
Kenya transparency report main document and inventory report²⁷
IPC analysis for the October to December 2026 season³²
National biodiversity assessment or IUCN country records, for threat status

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
ASAL	arid and semi-arid lands
BAU	business as usual
CBK	Central Bank of Kenya
EPRA	Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System
IFRC	International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
IMF	International Monetary Fund
IPC	Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
KNBS	Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
NDC	nationally determined contribution
TERT	technical expert review team
WDI	World Development Indicators
WHO AFRO	World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-KEN-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	County notes	atlas cards for every county	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, system losses

Construct: electrical energy lost in transmission and distribution, technical and commercial, as a share of energy supplied
Unit: percent of energy
Scope: the interconnected national system, year to 30 June
Source: EPRA statistics report FY2025/26²⁵
Revision: restated in each annual report
Known limits: the allowable level of 16.5% is the regulator’s benchmark, not a technical minimum

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Kenya 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures7 tables29 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Total GHG emissions (technical review basis)	113.36	Mt CO₂e	2022	Reported	²⁷
2030 target level	97.24	Mt CO₂e	2030	Reported	²⁷
2035 level at 35% below BAU of 215 Mt	139.75	Mt CO₂e	2035	Estimated	²⁹
GHG emissions excl. land use, World Bank series	102.8	Mt CO₂e	2024	Reported	²²
Electricity generation	15,692.81	GWh	FY2025/26	Reported	²⁵
Geothermal share of generation	40.91	%	FY2025/26	Reported	²⁵
Imports share of generation	12.19	%	FY2025/26	Reported	²⁵
Peak demand	2,514.28	MW	FY2025/26	Reported	²⁵
System losses	21.38	%	FY2025/26	Reported	²⁵
People with at least basic drinking water	65.6	%	2024	Reported	⁹
People with at least basic sanitation	40.9	%	2024	Reported	¹⁰
Renewable internal freshwater per person	381.5	m³	2022	Reported	¹¹
People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties	3.7	million	Apr to Jun 2026	Reported	³²
Maize output	45.8	million bags	2025	Reported	³⁴
Population	57.5	million	2025	Reported	¹
Life expectancy at birth	63.8	years	2024	Reported	²
Adult HIV prevalence	3.0	%	2024	Reported	⁴
Deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods	478	deaths	2024	Reported	³⁵
Terrestrial protected areas	13.9	% of land	2025	Reported	¹⁶
Ecosystem threat status	Not bound	%	n/a	NOT BOUND	⁴⁶
Flood and drought losses	Not bound	KES	n/a	NOT BOUND	³⁵
National census count	Not bound	people	n/a	NOT BOUND	³⁹
Emissions by sector, energy and waste	Not bound	Mt CO₂e	n/a	NOT BOUND	²⁷

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
World Bank indicator series¹ to²³	international body	national	2021–2025	annual	profile · services
Energy statistics²⁵²⁶	regulator	national	FY2021/22 · FY2025/26	annual	ENE
Technical expert review²⁷	UN review body	national	2010–2022	periodic	CLI
Climate Action Tracker²⁸²⁹	independent assessment	national	2022–2035	periodic	CLI
IMF and World Bank country pages²⁴³⁰³¹	international body	national	2025–2026	annual	FIN
Crop monitoring³²	UN agency	national and arid counties	2026	periodic	FOO
Weekly situation report³³	UN agency with ministry data	national	2026	weekly	HLT · FOO
Agriculture survey³⁴	central bank quoting national statistics	national	2023–2025	periodic	FOO
Network annual report³⁵	Red Cross network	national	2024	annual	CLI
Energy profile and SDG 6 data³⁶³⁷	international body	national	2022–2024	annual	ENE · WAT
Legal and policy texts³⁸⁴² to⁴⁶	government via records	national	2013–2025	per amendment	standards
Series records⁵³⁵⁴	Reports series	series	2026	per edition	method and peers

B.3Regional reading, Kenya by county

Map plates for every county follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Table B.4Regional reading, Kenya by county
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Nairobi region	urban demand, outbreak spread	power, water, health services	largest share of consumption, 43.92%²⁵
Arid north-east (Garissa, Wajir, Mandera)	drought, outbreaks, displacement	food, water, health, rangeland	IPC and WHO 2026³²³³
Tana River and coast	floods, drought, outbreak spread	food, ports, health	IPC 2026³² · mpox share³³
Nakuru and the Rift Valley fields	geothermal expansion, floods	power, farming, water	70 MW added at Menengai in FY2025/26²⁵
Counties hit by the 2024 floods	heavy rain, river flooding	homes, roads, water sources, farmland	46 of 47 counties³⁵

B.4Atlas card, Garissa County

county
arid
outbreaks
refugee camps

Systems in view: water, food, health and camps
Defining events: cholera cluster in Dagahaley camp, dengue in Garissa Township, measles³³
Couplings: FOO → HLT; WAT → HLT; CLI → FOO
Capability evidence: not bound
Gaps: water-point functionality; clinic continuity; food prices by market
Agenda items: A-01 · A-04

By early June 2026 the WHO report listed a cholera cluster of 32 cases with no deaths in Dagahaley camp, 1,269 dengue cases (52 PCR-confirmed) in Garissa Township and measles in Dadaab [33].

HEALTH

Concurrent outbreaks

Wajir, Mandera and Tana River held about 65% of people in IPC Phase 4. Garissa is not named in the brief, so county figures are not bound [32].

FOOD

Arid-county food insecurity

Water-point functionality is not bound. Source: national drought management authority and county water records. Blocker: not retrieved.

WATER

Water-point condition

B.5Kenya system card

The card through which Kenya appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Kenya system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	basic services reach two in three people	power loss into pumping and treatment	THIN
Energy	geothermal-led grid; losses 21.38%	hydro swings and import dependence	PARTIAL
Food	maize up; arid counties in crisis	failed rains and prices	PARTIAL
Health	concurrent outbreaks in 2026	sanitation gaps and outbreak load	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	threat status not bound	catchment and rangeland condition	THIN

Context

Archetype: lower-middle-income economy with a geothermal and hydro grid and large arid counties
Population: 57.5 million (2025)¹
Trade: imports electricity and petroleum products; wider trade not bound²⁵
Hazard: floods and drought; 478 flood deaths in 2024³⁵

Kenya’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

AFRICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Kenyan evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Kenya is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	23 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e)” (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035). Submission to the UNFCCC, 30 April 2025. Title from a database record; target figures are read through [27] and [29].back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census. KNBS, Nairobi, 2019. The site did not respond at evidence close; no census figure is used in this edition.back
23World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter)” (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Kenya, observation year 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
31International Monetary Fund (ed.), Kenya and the IMF, country page (last Article IV Executive Board consultation 17 January 2024; outstanding purchases and loans SDR 2,803.76 million at 31 March 2026). IMF, Washington DC, observation year 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
36International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Kenya. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, September 2025, observation years 2017–2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, 2016, as amended in 2023. Nairobi. Title and status from memory and search summaries; check the text and the Kenya Gazette.back
53S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
54S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back

Kenya 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

C.154 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “GDP growth (annual %)” (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “GDP (current US$)” (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to electricity (% of population)” (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)” (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP)” (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate)” (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1
20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Cereal yield (kg per hectare)” (AG.YLD.CREL.KG), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)” (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e)” (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.
23World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter)” (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Kenya, observation year 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
31International Monetary Fund (ed.), Kenya and the IMF, country page (last Article IV Executive Board consultation 17 January 2024; outstanding purchases and loans SDR 2,803.76 million at 31 March 2026). IMF, Washington DC, observation year 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
36International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Kenya. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, September 2025, observation years 2017–2024, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census. KNBS, Nairobi, 2019. The site did not respond at evidence close; no census figure is used in this edition. Cited in chapter 6
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2026. KNBS, Nairobi, April 2026. Figures attributed to it are read through the Central Bank of Kenya survey [34]. Cited in chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (ed.), Eastern Africa: Heavy rains and flooding, Flash Update 4, 30 May 2024. OCHA, Geneva, 2024. Figure of 315 deaths at 29 May 2024 taken from a search result summary; the page returned an access error. Cited in chapter 6
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, 2016, as amended in 2023. Nairobi. Title and status from memory and search summaries; check the text and the Kenya Gazette. Cited in chapter 6
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024, Legal Notice 84. Nairobi, 2024. Title and effect from search summaries; the page returned no text. Cited in chapter 6
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Water Act, 2016. Nairobi, 2016. Title and status from memory. Cited in chapter 6
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 2013. Nairobi, 2013. Title and status from memory. Cited in chapter 6
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035). Submission to the UNFCCC, 30 April 2025. Title from a database record; target figures are read through [27] and [29]. Cited in chapter 6
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Imperial College London and partners (World Weather Attribution), rapid analysis of the late-2023 rains in the Horn of Africa. December 2023. Taken from a search result summary. Cited in chapter 6
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
49UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Kenya Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC; year not confirmed. The page was reached only as a catalogue listing. Cited in chapter 6
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
52UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. From memory. Cited in chapter 6
53S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
54S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Kenya Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
KEN	NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-KEN-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Kenya; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Kenya, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
KEN edition Reports Kenya 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; KEN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

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S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Water

2.5Food

2.6Health

2.7Biodiversity

2.8Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

People with at least basic drinking water

Geothermal share of electricity generation

People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties

Life expectancy at birth

Ecosystem threat status, national

Deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment