G11 · EVIDENCE · researchGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRINexus ReportsEstablished
Research and evidence

Supporting methods

The research behind Nexus Reports: the questions it asks, the methods it uses and how evidence is reviewed before it is published.

Make an enquiry Back to Nexus Reports
Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Research and evidence
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Evidence register

Reports · Supporting methods

Register currentGCRI · Nexus Reports

Indicators

unit · cadence · label

Editions in productioneditionsweeklyOFFICIALSP-4045
Values traced to sources of valuesper editionDERIVEDSP-4326
Review roundsroundsper editionOFFICIALSP-1751
Corrections issuedcorrectionsquarterlyOFFICIALSP-3103
DownloadscountmonthlyOBSERVEDSP-8384

Source passport

Source
Manuscript system
Licence
open · attribution
Steward
Data editor
Coverage
87 pct of places
Known limits
sparse in uplands

Coverage by place

Nexus Reports · Evidence registerEvidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Nexus Reports research is the evidence work behind the platform: questions such as global systems series and country and regional series, answered with probability and statistics as well as uncertainty quantification and model validation and reviewed before publication. Every result carries an evidence label, from observed to modelled or expert judgement, and missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Supporting methods: institutional oversight of researchCapacity and oversight only: proposals go to an institutional committee, reviewed under national rules, approved with conditions, supported by training, audited, and incidents are reported to the national body. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure in World.

For supporting methods, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on World; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For supporting methods, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on World; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Questions

What the research asks.

  1. 01

    Global systems series

    Interdependent global system risks.

  2. 02

    Country and regional series

    National and transboundary portfolio studies.

  3. 03

    Sectoral series

    Sector and industry profiles.

  4. 04

    Frontier technology series

    Exponentially developing technologies.

  5. 05

    Scenarios and methods

    Transparent analytical studies.

  6. 06

    Labs and foundry series

    Technical test and readiness evidence.

05Open questions

What Nexus Reports research cannot yet answer well enough for decisions.

The editorial research agenda concerns how systemic risk evidence is communicated without losing its uncertainty or its limits.

  • How should uncertainty be shown in figures read by non-specialists without being ignored or overread?
  • Which formats help decision-makers distinguish modelled, observed and scenario evidence at a glance?
  • How can corrections reach readers who used an earlier version?
  • How should cross-field findings be reviewed when no single reviewer covers every field?
06Evidence

Every result keeps its label.

Results are labelled as observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario or expert judgement. Missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

Methods

Methods and uncertainty

How results are produced and where they stop

Sources

Source and data register

Where data comes from and on what terms

Publications

Reviewed outputs

Citable work with its editorial status

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Research integrityConduct of research in line with principles of reliability, honesty, respect and accountability, as the European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity sets them out.
Evidence labelA tag on an assertion naming the kind of evidence behind it, such as observed, officially reported or modelled.
ReproducibilityObtaining consistent results using the same data and analysis code as the original study.
Data vintageThe release of a statistic, identified by date, since figures are revised after first publication.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I propose a research question?
Yes. Write to contact@therisk.global with the question, the context and who would use the answer. A proposal receives a reference; it does not commit the platform to the work.
Related

Around Nexus Reports.

Nexus Reports

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

Write to the team See all contact routes
Have questions?