Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsKOR

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Republic of Korea 2026

The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-KOR-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/kor/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Republic of Korea 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The Republic of Korea (대한민국) enters 2027 as a high-income economy of 51.68 million people and about US$1.87 trillion of output in 2025², with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and an ageing society. Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, yet total fertility stood at 0.63 in Seoul and 1.09 in Jeonnam¹. In December 2025 Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018, including land use⁷, while Climate Action Tracker projects 2030 emissions only 11% to 19% below 2018 under current policies⁶. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and solar and wind 7%⁵, and Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27⁸. Several national series that this edition set out to bind, among them greenhouse-gas inventory totals, water supply, protected areas, heat illness, wildfire and flood losses, could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Korea’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, rain, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Republic of Korea baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

Inventory totals after 2022 are not bound. The 2035 target is 53% to 61% below 2018.⁷⁹
Where do emissions stand?Reported
Climate Action Tracker projects 11% to 19% below 2018 by 2030 under current policies.⁶
Is Korea on course for its 2030 target?Reported
Fossil fuels supplied 60% of generation in 2025; low-carbon sources 40%.⁵
How secure is electricity?Reported
Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27.⁸
How secure is food?Reported
Births rose in 2025 but fertility is lowest in Seoul at 0.63; the ageing share is not bound.¹²⁰⁴⁵
Is demographic change a health risk?Reported
Water and protected-area series are not bound at evidence close.¹⁸¹⁹
What about water and nature?Not bound
The IMF projects 2.6% growth in 2026.⁴
What does the economy look like?Reported
A heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region loading power, water, transport and care. SCN-KOR-HRT-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.

Figure S.1Korea’s 2035 target range (% below 2018, including land use)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Lower end		53
Upper end		61

Source: Climate Action Tracker 2035 target page⁷.

The range is large against the 2030 projection of 11% to 19% below 2018 for current policies⁶. The gap is where power, industry and transport plans must carry the load, which makes the electricity mix⁵ the first system to watch.

S.4At a glance

51.68million

population, 2025²

1.87US$ trillion

GDP, 2025²

36,624US$

GNI per capita, 2024³

254,300births

live births, 2025¹

40%

low-carbon electricity, 2025⁵

Not bound

provincial structure and ageing share²⁰

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Korea’s risk: a demanding climate target, an electricity mix still 60% fossil, heavy reliance on imported cereals and a low, uneven fertility rate.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heat wave, a typhoon warning or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the target range asks for large investment in the power system.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Korea’s demographic and electricity series are readable now; water, heat, wildfire and nature series are not.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Republic of Korea’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
45Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Vital Statistics monthly releases (July 2026 release dated 23 September 2026; listing read, figures not read). KOSTAT, Daejeon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/menu.es?mid=a20108000000back
18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overviewback

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 1

Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

6 min read2 figures2 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Republic of Korea’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

The Republic of Korea is a high-income economy of 51.68 million people, with about US$1.87 trillion of output in 2025². This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a population that is ageing and has very low fertility, a warming climate that intensifies heat, rain and fire, and a dependence on traded fuel and food.

The demographic layer is the best bound. Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, and mothers were 33.8 years old on average¹. Total fertility ranged from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam¹. The share of people aged 65 or over is not bound in this edition, because the release that would fill it could not be read²⁰.

The climate-policy layer is mixed. Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use⁷, and the tracker rates the national domestic target almost sufficient and the overall effort insufficient⁶⁷. Current policies are projected to leave 2030 emissions only 11% to 19% below 2018⁶. Inventory totals after 2022 are not bound⁹.

The energy layer shows the pace of change. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and low-carbon sources 40%, with solar and wind at 7%⁵. Korea has set a renewable electricity target of 30% for 2035⁶.

Food security rests on trade. Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, 11.6 million tonnes of it maize for feed⁸. The domestic share of food supply is not bound in this edition¹⁷.

This edition therefore reads Korea’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How much of Korea’s electricity is low-carbon? Electricity shares, 2025 (%)

Low-carbon sources supplied 40% of electricity, against 43% for the world; solar and wind supplied 7%⁵.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Fossil fuels		60
Low-carbon		40
Solar and wind		7

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

60%

fossil share, 2025⁵

40%

low-carbon share, 2025⁵

solar and wind, 2025⁵

30%

renewable electricity goal for 2035⁶

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Republic of Korea matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → ENE → HLT
A heat wave raises cooling demand and loads clinics and care at once.
Expert input summer record not bound¹⁶
02
CLI → WAT → INF
Heavy rain floods dense urban areas and cuts transport.
Expert input event record not bound¹⁵
03
SEI → INF → ENE
An earthquake or induced event near energy and industrial sites.
Reported Pohang 2017⁴³
04
TRD → ENE → FOO
Fuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs.
Expert input import data⁸
05
TRD → FOO
A grain price or shipping shock reaches feed and food.
Expert input cereal imports 2026/27⁸

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
17Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), Food Balance Sheet and self-sufficiency statistics. MAFRA, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.

Figure 2.1Korea’s 2035 target range (% below 2018, including land use)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Lower end		53
Upper end		61

Source: Climate Action Tracker 2035 target page⁷.

Implication

What would move it

The electricity mix for 2026, the plan for the next electricity supply, and inventory totals after 2022 would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, or 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.⁷
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
Climate Action Tracker projects 2030 emissions 11% to 19% below 2018 under current policies, excluding land use.⁶

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity and low-carbon sources 40% in 2025; solar and wind supplied 7%.⁵

2.4Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004
Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, including 11.6 million tonnes of maize and 4.6 million tonnes of wheat.⁸

2.5Health

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005
Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, and mothers were 33.8 years old on average.¹
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006
Total fertility in 2025 ranged from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam.¹
Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011
The share of the population aged 65 or over and heat-illness counts are not bound in this edition.¹⁶²⁰

2.6Finance

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007
The IMF projects growth of 2.6% and inflation of 2.5% for 2026.⁴

2.7SEI

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-008
The 2017 Pohang earthquake (moment magnitude 5.5) has been analysed in peer-reviewed work as a possible case of induced seismicity.⁴³

2.8Water

Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009
Water supply, water loss and drought indicators are not bound in this edition.¹⁸

2.9Biodiversity

Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Protected-area coverage and ecosystem condition are not bound in this edition.¹⁹

2.10Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat and heavy-rain sequence over a dense, ageing capital region that loads power, water, transport and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back
18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

4 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Water supply and water-loss indicators

Not bound

Source: Ministry of Environment waterworks statistics¹⁸. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

Not boundnoneMoE¹⁸

ENE · Energy

Low-carbon share of electricity

40%

Fossil fuels supplied 60%; solar and wind 7%.

Reported2025Ember⁵

FOO · Food

Cereal imports expected, marketing year 2026/27

16.7million t

Maize 11.6 million tonnes and wheat 4.6 million tonnes.

Reported2026FAO⁸

HLT · Health

Lowest regional total fertility rate

0.63births per woman

Seoul in 2025; Jeonnam was highest at 1.09.

Reported2025KOSTAT¹

BIO · Biodiversity

Protected-area coverage

Not bound

Source: national reporting to the Convention on Biological Diversity¹⁹. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

Not boundnoneCBD¹⁹

SYS · Cross-system

2035 target range, below 2018 including land use

53–61%

Equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e in 2035.

Reported2025CAT⁷

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Supply, loss and drought indicators not bound; pipes and basins to be read in 2027.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	Not bound EQL 1
ENE	Fossil fuels 60% of electricity in 2025; low-carbon 40%.	ENE → all	Reported EQL 4
FOO	Cereal imports of 16.7 million tonnes expected in 2026/27.	FOO ← TRD, ENE	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Births up 6.7% in 2025; fertility lowest in Seoul; ageing share not bound.	HLT ← CLI, SEI	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Protected-area coverage not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Not bound EQL 1
CLI	2035 target 53% to 61% below 2018; 2030 projection 11% to 19%.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 3
INF	Dense urban networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	IMF projects 2.6% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound.	FIN ← SEI, CLI	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Semiconductor and data-centre capacity adds power and water demand; not quantified.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Critical minerals and fuels imported; stock depth not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	A trading economy dependent on sea lanes for fuel, grain and inputs.	TRD → all	Expert input EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound heat, rain and demographic stress	heat and heavy rain over the capital region	THIN
GS-01	Water	indicators not bound¹⁸	drought; flood; pipe condition	THIN
GS-02	Energy	60% fossil electricity, 2025⁵	supply disruption; peak heat demand	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	16.7 million t cereal imports⁸	import shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	low and uneven fertility¹	heat surge; care continuity	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	IMF growth 2.6%⁴	catastrophe fiscal cost	THIN
GS-06	Development	regional fertility gap¹	service withdrawal	THIN
GS-07	Climate	2035 target⁷	heat, rain and fire	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	loss records not bound¹⁵	floods, typhoons, wildfire, earthquake	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	condition not bound	maintenance backlog	THIN
GS-10	Cities	dense metropolitan regions	urban flooding and heat	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	indicators not bound¹⁹	land-use and climate pressure	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather service data not read¹⁴	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	carbon neutrality framework¹⁰	coordination across levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed seismic analysis⁴³	translation to regions	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
14Korea Meteorological Administration (ed.), Annual Climate Report. KMA, Seoul. Source for climate extremes; not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 3RSK-KOR-SEI-001
Induced or natural earthquake near dense industry
Driver
natural or induced seismicity
Exposure
industrial and urban areas
Vulnerability
not bound at public-safe resolution
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
SEI → INF, ENE
Horizon
30 years
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-CLI-002
Heavy rain, typhoon and urban flooding
Driver
more intense rainfall and typhoons
Exposure
dense cities and floodplains
Vulnerability
not bound
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
Horizon
annual
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-HLT-003
Heat and demographic change loading health and care
Driver
longer, hotter summers
Exposure
older adults; outdoor workers
Vulnerability
ageing share not bound²⁰
Capacity
heat illness records not bound¹⁶
Cascade
CLI → HLT → ENE peak
Horizon
seasonal
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-ENE-004
Fuel and gas supply disruption
Driver
shipping disruption or price spike
Exposure
power, industry, households
Vulnerability
stock depth not bound²¹
Capacity
not bound
Cascade
TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: building and land-use records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	NOT BOUND	source: national weather and seismic service records¹⁴ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Early warning	NOT BOUND	source: weather service and disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	NOT BOUND	source: national disaster safety plans⁴⁴ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: energy and grain reserve records²¹ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Response	NOT BOUND	source: disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: operator continuity records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: recovery programme records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Adaptation	NOT BOUND	source: national adaptation plans · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: national social insurance records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Finance and insurance	NOT BOUND	source: Bank of Korea and regulator reports²² · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Institutional coordination	NOT BOUND	source: national framework acts¹⁰⁴⁴ · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Technical infrastructure	NOT BOUND	source: operator asset records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: ministry workforce statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Research capacity	NOT BOUND	source: national research statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
21Korea Energy Economics Institute (ed.), Yearbook of Energy Statistics. KEEI, Ulsan. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
14Korea Meteorological Administration (ed.), Annual Climate Report. KMA, Seoul. Source for climate extremes; not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
44Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety. Seoul. Observation year none bound (current consolidated text not read).back
22Bank of Korea (ed.), Financial Stability Report. Bank of Korea, Seoul. Observation year 2026 (latest report). Not opened at evidence close.back
10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 5

Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a prolonged summer heat wave followed within weeks by a heavy-rain and typhoon event over a dense metropolitan region
Analogues: not bound; event records are a designed gap¹⁵¹⁶
Interventions: none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → ENE
cooling demand lifts peak load
expert input
2
CLI → HLT
heat illness loads clinics and care settings
expert input
3
CLI → WAT
heavy rain floods streets and basements
expert input
4
WAT → INF
transport and power equipment are cut
expert input
5
INF → HLT
access to care falls for older residents
expert input
6
HLT → population
recovery load falls on the same services
expert input

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01 would travel through Republic of Korea’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to energy	Cooling demand lifts peak load. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 1
02 Climate to health	Heat illness loads clinics and care settings. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 2
03 Climate to water	Heavy rain floods streets and basements. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 3
04 Water to infrastructure	Transport and power equipment are cut. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 4
05 Infrastructure to health	Access to care falls for older residents. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 5
06 Health to population	Recovery load falls on the same services. Analogue or source: expert input.	Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Republic of Korea 2026, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01 (2026); Republic of Korea 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

12 min read0 figures8 tables32 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Korea’s risk: a demanding climate target, an electricity mix still 60% fossil, heavy reliance on imported cereals and a low, uneven fertility rate. Evidence is strongest for the electricity mix and the target, and weakest for water, nature, heat and loss records, which are not bound.

CLI-001 · ENE-003 · HLT-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heat wave, a typhoon warning or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how regional differences in fertility and ageing change who can be reached and how fast places recover.

HLT-005 · HLT-006 · SYS-012

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the target range asks for large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-007 · CLI-001

NEXUS

Synthesis

Korea’s demographic and electricity series are readable now; water, heat, wildfire and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map capital-region lifeline dependencies, and measure fuel and grain import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Republic of Korea. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Korea	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Korea’s 2035 range asks for a much larger cut than current policies project for 2030. The baseline reads this as a question about power, industry and transport systems, not about a single sector.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

A target far above the trend

Total fertility ran from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam in 2025. Population change reaches services unevenly, and every risk object in this edition is read through that lens.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Demography differs by region

Fossil fuels still supplied 60% of electricity and cereals are imported in large volumes. Energy and food security are trade questions as much as domestic ones.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Security is traded

This edition names the series it could not read. A gap printed with its source and blocker is more useful to a reviewer than an estimate that cannot be checked.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

What is not yet bound

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · 2035 target 53% to 61% below 2018⁷²⁸	UNFCCC · Korea	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality¹⁰	Government of Korea	national	IN FORCE	climate framework
Emissions Trading Scheme Act²⁴	Government of Korea	national	IN FORCE	carbon market
Basic Plan for electricity¹³	MOTIE	national	PUBLISHED	power mix
Framework Act on Disaster and Safety Management⁴⁴	Government of Korea	national	IN FORCE	disaster management
Kunming-Montreal Framework²⁷	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Korean Sustainability Disclosure Standards²³	KSSB	listed companies	STATUS NOT BOUND	disclosure
Sendai Framework 2015–2030²⁵	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	risk reduction

Changed since 2024

Korea submitted its 2035 target in December 2025⁷¹¹
Climate Action Tracker updated its assessment of Korea on 29 December 2025⁶
The IMF issued its latest Article IV report in November 2025⁴

To watch in 2027

Status of the Korean disclosure standards for listed companies²³
Revisions to the electricity supply plan¹³
Implementation rules for the carbon market²⁴

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Republic of Korea’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)²⁶	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³²	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³³	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Grigoli et al.⁴³	journal article	2018	supports	induced seismicity
WMO State of the Climate in Asia⁴²	assessment	2025	context	regional climate

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality¹⁰	Government of Korea	2021	supports	climate framework
2035 target submission¹¹	Government of Korea	2025	supports	target
Long-term low emission strategy¹²	Government of Korea	2020	context	pathway
Basic Plan for electricity¹³	MOTIE	2025	context	energy pathway
OECD Economic Survey³⁷	OECD	2024	context	fiscal

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Birth statistics¹	KOSTAT	2026	supports	births, fertility
Population and GDP²³	World Bank	2025	supports	profile
Electricity data⁵	Ember	2025	supports	power mix
Crop monitoring⁸	FAO	2026	supports	cereal imports
Population projections²⁰³⁸	KOSTAT · UN DESA	2024	context	ageing

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Financial Stability Report²²	Bank of Korea	2026	context	finance
NatCatSERVICE³¹	Munich Re	2026	context	global losses
Emissions Gap Report⁴⁰	UNEP	2025	context	ambition gap
Global Assessment Report³⁹	UNDRR	2025	context	disaster finance

Where the evidence agrees

Heavy rain and heat extremes are intensifying across East Asia²⁶⁴²
Induced seismicity is a real hazard near deep injection and geothermal sites⁴³
Low fertility changes service demand and vulnerability¹³⁴³⁸

Where it is unsettled

How fast fossil generation can fall against the 2035 range⁶⁷
How the 2030 target converts between domestic and international parts⁶
How heat mortality and illness are recorded and counted¹⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
28UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
24Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Act on the Allocation and Trading of Greenhouse-Gas Emission Permits. Seoul. Observation year 2015 (enactment).back
13Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (ed.), Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. MOTIE, Sejong. Observation year 2025 (latest plan). Not opened at evidence close.back
44Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety. Seoul. Observation year none bound (current consolidated text not read).back
27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
23Korea Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Korean Sustainability Disclosure Standards. KSSB, Seoul. Status not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
25UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
11Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Republic of Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; cited through [7].back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
32P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
33J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back
42World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
12Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a Sustainable and Green Society (long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy). Seoul, 2020. Observation year 2020.back
37OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Korea 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overviewback
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
22Bank of Korea (ed.), Financial Stability Report. Bank of Korea, Seoul. Observation year 2026 (latest report). Not opened at evidence close.back
31Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
40United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
39UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
34World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region load power, water, transport and care together?
INI-KOR-CLI-01 · capital region lifelines; first output: dependency graph for the capital region.
A-02
How deep are fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged shipping disruption?
INI-KOR-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.
A-03
How exposed are food and feed supply to concurrent import and domestic shocks?
INI-KOR-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
A-04
How does a low and uneven fertility rate change service demand across regions?
INI-KOR-HLT-04 · demographic change; first output: regional demand baseline.
A-05
Where do flood, typhoon and wildfire losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?
INI-KOR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-region loss table.
A-06
How do river basins and dams perform under more intense rainfall and drought?
INI-KOR-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.
A-07
How resilient are semiconductor and data-centre supply chains to power and water shocks?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-KOR-CLI-01	Capital region lifelines under heat and rain	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-KOR-ENE-02	Fuel and gas import resilience	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-KOR-FOO-03	Food and feed import exposure	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-KOR-HLT-04	Demographic change and service demand	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-KOR-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-KOR-CLI-01a	Capital region lifeline dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-KOR-2027-01	Heat and rain compound Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Korea is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Republic of Korea from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-KOR-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-KOR-2027-01 · Heat and rain compound Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · 2035 target	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mix	INI-KOR-ENE-02	import resilience	PUBLIC
FOO-004 · cereals	INI-KOR-FOO-03	import exposure	PUBLIC
HLT-005 · births	INI-KOR-HLT-04	demographic change	PUBLIC
HLT-006 · regional fertility	INI-KOR-HLT-04	regional demand baseline	PUBLIC
FIN-007 · economy	INI-KOR-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap	PUBLIC
SEI-008 · induced seismicity	INI-KOR-CLI-01	lifeline dependency graph	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-KOR-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather warnings and climate data	Korea Meteorological Administration	real time	CLI findings
Heat-illness surveillance	KDCA	summer season	HLT-007
Wildfire information	Korea Forest Service	per event	CLI findings
Power supply and demand	Korea Power Exchange	real time	ENE findings
Dam and water information	K-water	per publisher schedule	WAT-009
Vital statistics	KOSTAT	monthly	HLT-005
Crop monitoring	FAO GIEWS	per brief	FOO-004

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-KOR-001	Births rose 6.7% in 2025¹	CORROBORATED	HLT	initiative A-04
SIG-KOR-002	2035 target range submitted⁷	CORROBORATED	CLI · ENE	risk object RSK-KOR-ENE-004
SIG-KOR-003	Induced seismicity analysed after Pohang⁴³	CORROBORATED	SEI · INF	risk object RSK-KOR-SEI-001

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

5 min read0 figures5 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water supply, water loss and drought indicators are not bound in this edition. The chapter names the source and the blocker and does not estimate.

Not bound

supply and loss indicators¹⁸

Not bound

drought indicators¹⁸

Not bound

dam and basin data¹⁸

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Supply	not bound; source: waterworks statistics and AQUASTAT	¹⁸⁴¹	NOT BOUND
Floods	not bound; source: disaster records	¹⁵	NOT BOUND
Drought	not bound; source: water authority data	¹⁸	NOT BOUND
Pipe condition	not bound; source: utility asset records	¹⁸	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
CLI → WAT heavy rain and drought
WAT → ENE hydro and cooling
INF → WAT pumping and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

supply and loss indicators
drought and basin stress

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and low-carbon sources 40%, with solar and wind at 7%.

60%

fossil share of electricity, 2025⁵

40%

low-carbon share, 2025⁵

30%

renewable electricity goal for 2035⁶

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Power mix	fossil 60%, low-carbon 40%	⁵	Reported
Solar and wind	7% of generation	⁵	Reported
Plan	long-term electricity plan published	¹³	Reported
Fuel stocks	not bound; source: energy statistics	²¹	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE fuel imports
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → ENE peak demand
ENE → WAT pumping and cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

fuel stock depth under disruption
split of generation by fuel

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, so food and feed security is a trade question.

16.7million t

cereal imports, 2026/27⁸

11.6million t

maize imports⁸

4.6million t

wheat imports⁸

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Cereal imports	16.7 million tonnes expected	⁸	Reported
Maize	11.6 million tonnes, feed industry demand	⁸	Reported
Rice	0.5 million tonnes imported in 2026	⁸	Reported
Self-sufficiency	not bound; source: national food balance	¹⁷	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → FOO import dependence
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → FOO heat and rain

Evidence to bind in 2027

self-sufficiency ratios
import concentration by origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, but total fertility differs widely by region, from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam.

254,300births

2025¹

33.8years

mean age of mothers, 2025¹

0.63 to 1.09births per woman

regional range, 2025¹

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Births	about 254,300, up 6.7%	¹	Reported
Fertility	Seoul 0.63; Jeonnam 1.09	¹	Reported
Ageing share	not bound; source: population projections	²⁰	NOT BOUND
Heat illness	not bound; source: surveillance records	¹⁶	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
ENE → HLT cooling and power
INF → HLT access to care

Evidence to bind in 2027

ageing share
heat-illness counts

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protected-area coverage and ecosystem condition are not bound in this edition. The chapter names the source and the blocker and does not estimate.

Not bound

protected land¹⁹

Not bound

protected sea¹⁹

30%

global target by 2030²⁷

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	not bound; source: national reporting to the CBD	¹⁹	NOT BOUND
Strategy	not bound; source: national strategy	¹⁹	NOT BOUND
Pressures	not bound; source: national assessments	¹⁹	NOT BOUND
Condition	not bound outside protected areas	¹⁹	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO fisheries and pollination
CLI → BIO warming seas and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

protected-area coverage
condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
41Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: Republic of Korea. FAO, Rome. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
13Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (ed.), Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. MOTIE, Sejong. Observation year 2025 (latest plan). Not opened at evidence close.back
21Korea Energy Economics Institute (ed.), Yearbook of Energy Statistics. KEEI, Ulsan. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
17Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), Food Balance Sheet and self-sufficiency statistics. MAFRA, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Width of the 2035 target range	61 − 53	8 points
(2)	Gap from the 2030 projection to the domestic 2030 target	32 − 19 and 32 − 11	13 to 21 points
(3)	Low-carbon electricity other than solar and wind	40 − 7	33 points
(4)	Fossil plus low-carbon shares as a check	60 + 40	100%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-KOR-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Republic of Korea as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for province or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-KOR-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 45 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-KOR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Births	2025	26 Aug 2026	annual	Aug 2027
Population and GDP	2025	read 3 Nov 2026	annual	annual
Electricity shares	2025	date not stated	annual	annual
2035 target assessment	2025	29 Dec 2025	periodic	periodic
Cereal imports	2026/27	2 Sep 2026	periodic	periodic
IMF growth projection	2026	Jul 2026	periodic	periodic
GHG inventory	1990–2022 listed	not stated	annual	annual
Heat illness	not bound	none	annual	annual
Protected areas	not bound	none	annual	annual

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Seismic hazard	THIN	lifeline fragility by province
Climate forcing	PARTIAL	recent extremes and losses
Energy	PARTIAL	generation by fuel; stock depth
Food	PARTIAL	self-sufficiency; import concentration
Health	PARTIAL	ageing share; heat illness
Water	THIN	supply, loss and drought
Biodiversity	THIN	protected areas; condition
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) on 26 August 2026. Annual. Role: binds HLT-005 and HLT-006. The attached full report was not read, so the national total fertility rate is not bound.

EVD-KOR-001

Birth statistics 2025¹

Issued by the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, reference date 2 September 2026. Periodic. Role: binds FOO-004. The brief reports no import dependency ratio.

EVD-KOR-002

FAO country brief⁸

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-KOR-001	EVD-KOR-002
Completeness	regional and national tables	cereal imports by crop
Timeliness	about eight months after the year	issued within the marketing year
Revision	not stated on the page	revised per brief
Method transparency	published tables	brief text
External validation	national statistical standards	expert monitoring

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

KOSTAT population projections²⁰: ageing share and provincial structure
GIR national inventory⁹: totals after 2022
KDCA heat-illness surveillance¹⁶: counting rules
MoE waterworks statistics¹⁸: loss and supply definitions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CAT	Climate Action Tracker
CBD	Convention on Biological Diversity
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System
GIR	Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea
IMF	International Monetary Fund
KDCA	Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency
KMA	Korea Meteorological Administration
KOSTAT	Statistics Korea
KSSB	Korea Sustainability Standards Board
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
MoE	Ministry of Environment
MOTIE	Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy
NDC	nationally determined contribution
OECD	Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
UNDRR	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
WDI	World Development Indicators

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-KOR-HRT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Provincial notes	atlas cards for every province	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, low-carbon share of electricity

Construct: share of annual electricity generation from low-carbon sources
Unit: percent of generation
Scope: calendar year, national
Source: Ember country data⁵
Revision: not stated on the page
Known limits: split between nuclear, hydro and other sources not read

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back

Republic of Korea 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

7 min read0 figures7 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population	51.68	million	2025	Reported	²
GDP, current prices	≈1.87	US$ trillion	2025	Reported	²
GNI per capita	36,624	US$	2024	Reported	³
Live births	≈254,300	births	2025	Reported	¹
Change in births	+6.7	%	2025	Reported	¹
Mean age of mothers	33.8	years	2025	Reported	¹
Total fertility, Seoul	0.63	births per woman	2025	Reported	¹
Total fertility, Jeonnam	1.09	births per woman	2025	Reported	¹
Fossil share of electricity	60	%	2025	Reported	⁵
Low-carbon share of electricity	40	%	2025	Reported	⁵
Solar and wind share	7	%	2025	Reported	⁵
2035 target, including land use	53 to 61	% below 2018	2025	Reported	⁷
2035 level, including land use	304 to 364	Mt CO₂e	2025	Reported	⁷
2030 projection, excluding land use	11 to 19	% below 2018	2025	Reported	⁶
Cereal imports	16.7	million t	2026/27	Reported	⁸
Projected growth	2.6	%	2026	Reported	⁴
Low-carbon other than solar and wind	33	points	2025	Estimated	⁵

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Birth statistics¹	national statistics	national	2025	annual	HLT
World Bank country data²³	international organisation	national	2024–2025	annual	profile
IMF country record⁴	international organisation	national	2025–2026	periodic	FIN
Ember country data⁵	research organisation	national	2025	annual	ENE
Climate Action Tracker⁶⁷	research consortium	national	2025	periodic	CLI
FAO country brief⁸	UN agency	national	2026	periodic	FOO
GHG inventory page⁹	government centre	national	1990–2022 listed	annual	CLI
Wildfire statistics¹⁵	government agency	national	not bound	annual	CLI
Heat-illness surveillance¹⁶	government agency	national	not bound	annual	HLT
Waterworks statistics¹⁸	ministry statistics	national	not bound	annual	WAT
Population projections²⁰	national statistics	national	not bound	periodic	profile

B.3Regional reading, Republic of Korea by region

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Total fertility rate by region, 2025¹

0.63births per woman

Seoul

0.74births per woman

Busan

1.06births per woman

Sejong

1.09births per woman

Jeonnam

Table B.4Regional reading, Republic of Korea by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Seoul Capital Area	heat, heavy rain, urban flooding	finance, power, transport, care	event record not bound¹⁵
Gangwon	wildfire, heavy rain	forestry, water	event record not bound¹⁵
Chungcheong	heat, rain, drought	industry, water	event record not bound¹⁸
Honam	heavy rain, typhoons	agriculture, coast	event record not bound¹⁸
Yeongnam	typhoons, heat, earthquake	ports, industry, energy	Pohang 2017⁴³
Jeju	typhoons, water supply	tourism, island lifelines	event record not bound¹⁸

B.4Atlas card, Seoul Capital Area

region
metropolis
dense lifelines
lowest fertility

Systems in view: water, power, transport, health and care
Defining events: not bound; event records are a designed gap¹⁵¹⁶
Couplings: CLI → ENE → HLT; CLI → WAT → INF
Capability evidence: not bound
Gaps: drainage capacity; peak load margins; care continuity
Agenda items: A-01 · A-04

Source: Ministry of Environment waterworks and drainage statistics [18]. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

WATER

Not bound

Total fertility in Seoul was 0.63 in 2025, the lowest regional value reported [1]. Ageing share is not bound [20].

HEALTH AND CARE

Lowest regional fertility

Source: national and city transport operator records. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

TRANSPORT

Not bound

B.5Republic of Korea system card

The card through which Republic of Korea appears in the East Asia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Republic of Korea system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	indicators not bound	flood and drought	THIN
Energy	60% fossil electricity	import disruption	PARTIAL
Food	cereal imports 16.7 million t	import shocks	PARTIAL
Health	low, uneven fertility	heat and care load	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	indicators not bound	land use and climate	THIN

Context

Archetype: high-income, ageing, trade-dependent economy in a seismically active region
Population: 51.68 million (2025)²
Trade: imports cereals and fuel⁵⁸
Target: 2035 range 53% to 61% below 2018⁷

Republic of Korea’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

EAST ASIA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Korean evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Republic of Korea is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	17 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-KOR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overviewback
1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back

Republic of Korea 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-rep Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overview Cited in the summary, chapter 6
4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KOR Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KOR Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.do Cited in the summary, chapter 1
10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
11Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Republic of Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; cited through [7]. Cited in chapter 6
12Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a Sustainable and Green Society (long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy). Seoul, 2020. Observation year 2020. Cited in chapter 6
13Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (ed.), Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. MOTIE, Sejong. Observation year 2025 (latest plan). Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
14Korea Meteorological Administration (ed.), Annual Climate Report. KMA, Seoul. Source for climate extremes; not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 8
16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
17Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), Food Balance Sheet and self-sufficiency statistics. MAFRA, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21Korea Energy Economics Institute (ed.), Yearbook of Energy Statistics. KEEI, Ulsan. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
22Bank of Korea (ed.), Financial Stability Report. Bank of Korea, Seoul. Observation year 2026 (latest report). Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
23Korea Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Korean Sustainability Disclosure Standards. KSSB, Seoul. Status not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 6
24Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Act on the Allocation and Trading of Greenhouse-Gas Emission Permits. Seoul. Observation year 2015 (enactment). Cited in chapter 6
25UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
28UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
29International Energy Agency (ed.), Korea 2020: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2020. Observation year 2020.
30International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.
31Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
32P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
33J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
34World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
37OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Korea 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
39UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
40United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
41Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: Republic of Korea. FAO, Rome. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 8
42World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
44Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety. Seoul. Observation year none bound (current consolidated text not read). Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
45Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Vital Statistics monthly releases (July 2026 release dated 23 September 2026; listing read, figures not read). KOSTAT, Daejeon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/menu.es?mid=a20108000000 Cited in the summary

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Republic of Korea Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
KOR	NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-KOR-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Republic of Korea; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Republic of Korea, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
KOR edition Reports Republic of Korea 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; KOR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Food

2.5Health

2.6Finance

2.7SEI

2.8Water

2.9Biodiversity

2.10Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Water supply and water-loss indicators

Low-carbon share of electricity

Cereal imports expected, marketing year 2026/27

Lowest regional total fertility rate

Protected-area coverage

2035 target range, below 2018 including land use

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Induced or natural earthquake near dense industry

Heavy rain, typhoon and urban flooding

Heat and demographic change loading health and care

Fuel and gas supply disruption

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Total fertility rate by region, 2025¹