South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the South Asia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The eight states emitted about 5,234 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, 83.5% of it in India. Totals are Nexus sums on one common basis.³

   Where do emissions stand?Estimated

2. Bangladesh drew 97.7% from fossil fuels in 2024 and India 75.8%; Nepal and Bhutan drew almost all from hydropower.⁴

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

3. Renewable internal water was 226 m³ per person in Pakistan in 2022 and 1,014 m³ in India.⁶

   How scarce is water?Reported

4. A court held it remains in force on 31 August 2026; India rejects the award and keeps it in abeyance.²²³⁸

   What is the state of the Indus treaty?Reported

5. Floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan. Final tolls by province are not bound.¹⁶⁴³

   How severe were recent floods?Reported

6. About 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan are projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse in 2026.¹⁷¹⁸

   How exposed is food supply?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series by state are not bound in this edition.¹⁶

   Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

8. A second deficient monsoon with low river flow, heat and weak food supply while two river treaties are unsettled. SCN-SAS-DRY-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.

A river treaty is a regional instrument. The Indus is shared by India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a dispute over its status bears on water, farming and power in all three. The court’s next step is the Neutral Expert decision on the Ratle plant, expected in July 2027²².

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is South Asia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The South Asia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   A weak monsoon cuts river flow and reservoir storage and tightens hydropower and cooling water.

   Inferred monsoon 2026²⁷; no event bound

2. 02

   CLI → FOO

   Rain deficits lower paddy output.

   Reported Nepal paddy down 4.2% in 2025²⁰

3. 03

   WAT → FOO

   Dry-season river flow shapes irrigated output.

   Inferred irrigation shares¹²; no event bound

4. 04

   CLI → HLT

   Heat and polluted air raise deaths and load health services.

   Reported air pollution mortality 2019⁸

5. 05

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Floods damage lifelines and the loss falls on households and budgets.

   Inferred floods 2025¹⁶; loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.

Implication

A river treaty is a regional instrument. The Indus is shared by India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a dispute over its status bears on water, farming and power in all three. The court’s next step is the Neutral Expert decision on the Ratle plant, expected in July 2027²².

What would move it

The Neutral Expert decision, the monsoon flow record, reservoir storage and any change in India’s position would each move this finding. Reservoir and flow series are not bound²².

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   The WMO reports that exceptional monsoon and tropical cyclone rainfall caused severe flooding in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2025, and that High Mountain Asian glaciers continue to retreat.²¹

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average in India, as recorded by the India Meteorological Department and reported in the India edition.²⁷

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   Floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan, and Cyclone Ditwah in November 2025 damaged recently planted paddy in six districts of Sri Lanka.¹⁶¹⁹

4. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   Emissions excluding land use of the eight states summed to about 5,234 Mt CO₂e in 2024, of which India emitted 4,371 Mt (83.5%) and Pakistan 526 Mt (10.0%).³

2.3Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

   Renewable internal freshwater was 226 m³ per person in Pakistan and 1,014 m³ in India in 2022, and Pakistan’s withdrawals equalled 326% of its internal renewable resources.⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.²²³⁸

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

   Oil, gas and coal supplied 97.7% of electricity in Bangladesh, 75.8% in India and 55.7% in Pakistan in 2024, while hydropower supplied 98.7% in Nepal in 2024.⁴²³²⁴

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   Mean annual PM2.5 exposure was 69.3 µg/m³ in Bangladesh, 58.4 in Pakistan and 54.1 in India in 2023, and air pollution mortality in 2019 was highest in Afghanistan at 265.7 per 100,000.⁸

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   About 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan are projected in IPC Phase 3 or worse in 2026, and undernourishment reached 27.8% in Afghanistan and 16.1% in Pakistan in 2024.¹¹¹⁷¹⁸

2.7Systemic

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-010

   About 2.65 million Afghan nationals had returned by late July 2026, and a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on 31 August 2025 affected four eastern provinces of Afghanistan.¹⁸²⁶

2. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a second deficient monsoon in which low river flow, heat and weak food supply coincide while two river treaties are unsettled. §9.3

2.8Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Forest covered 70.4% of land in Bhutan and 24.4% in India in 2024, and terrestrial protected areas covered 51.6% of Bhutan and 7.7% of India in 2025.⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SAS-CLI-001

   Monsoon flood and cyclone season across borders

   Driver

   exceptional monsoon and cyclone rainfall

   Exposure

   river plains, coasts and hill slopes

   Vulnerability

   low-lying coasts: 49% of the Maldives population lives below 5 m¹³

   Capacity

   early warning and relief; not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FOO, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAS-WAT-002

   Low flow on shared rivers in a dry year

   Driver

   deficient monsoon and high dry-season demand

   Exposure

   irrigation, hydropower, cities

   Vulnerability

   Pakistan withdrawals at 326% of internal resources⁶

   Capacity

   treaties exist and are contested²²⁴⁰; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAS-HLT-003

   Heat and polluted air overload health services

   Driver

   heat waves and seasonal smoke

   Exposure

   older adults, outdoor workers, children

   Vulnerability

   PM2.5 above 50 µg/m³ in four states⁸

   Capacity

   health system capacity not bound⁹

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-SAS-ENE-004

   Single-fuel or single-river power systems under stress

   Driver

   fuel supply change or a dry year

   Exposure

   households, industry and pumping

   Vulnerability

   fossil share 97.7% in Bangladesh; hydro 98.7% in Nepal⁴

   Capacity

   cross-border links not bound

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Dhaka, 1985. SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. Observation year 1985. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29W. W. Immerzeel, A. F. Lutz, M. Andrade et al., “Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers,” Nature, vol. 577, pp. 364–369, 2020 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SAS-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a monsoon below the long period average for a second year, with high dry-season demand

Analogues

India monsoon 2026 at 87% of average²⁷; Nepal paddy loss in 2025²⁰; Indus and Ganges treaty positions²²⁴⁰

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low rainfall cuts river flow and recharge on the plains

   monsoon 2026²⁷

2. 2

   WAT → FOO

   irrigation shortfall lowers paddy and wheat output

   Nepal paddy 2025²⁰

3. 3

   WAT → ENE

   hydropower falls where hydro dominates, and cooling water tightens elsewhere

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   CLI → HLT

   heat and smoke raise health load

   air pollution mortality 2019⁸

5. 5

   FOO → FIN

   prices and household budgets tighten where food insecurity is already high

   IPC projections 2026¹⁷¹⁸

6. 6

   WAT → governance

   treaty positions shape the room for joint flow management

   award and expiry²²⁴⁰

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SAS-DRY-01 would travel through South Asia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: South Asia 2026, scenario SCN-SAS-DRY-01 (2026); South Asia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South Asia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about South Asia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Dhaka, 1985. SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. Observation year 1985. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 52POST-CLOSE, context only: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), publications listing (page opened; one report dated 13 October 2026 on the Gyirong and Rasuwa disaster of 26 August 2026 is listed by title only; its content was not read). ICIMOD, Kathmandu. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 29W. W. Immerzeel, A. F. Lutz, M. Andrade et al., “Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers,” Nature, vol. 577, pp. 364–369, 2020 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35S. C. Sherwood and M. Huber, “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 107, pp. 9552–9555, 2010 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 34A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e25–e38, 2021 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.BASW.ZS basic drinking water and SH.STA.BASS.ZS basic sanitation services, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a second deficient monsoon load groundwater, crops, power and household food budgets across the region?

   INI-SAS-CLI-01 · compound monsoon stress; first output: dependency graph for the Indus and Ganges plains.

2. A-02

   How secure is power supply in states that depend on one fuel or one river?

   INI-SAS-ENE-02 · electricity mix and links; first output: fuel-and-link register.

3. A-03

   How do shared river treaties shape dry-season flow, and what evidence binds them?

   INI-SAS-WAT-03 · shared rivers; first output: basin evidence note for the Indus.

4. A-04

   How many deaths can be attributed to heat and air pollution, by state and year?

   INI-SAS-HLT-04 · heat, air and health; first output: attribution baseline for the member and two reference states.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and cyclone losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-SAS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

6. A-06

   How fast are Himalayan glaciers losing mass, and which basins are exposed to sudden glacier hazards?

   INI-SAS-BIO-01 · mountain hazards; first output: glacier hazard evidence note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The South Asia regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read South Asia as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   South Asia as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SAS-2027-01 · Monsoon, rivers and power Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The registry names one member edition for South Asia, India. The other seven states are read as a reference group, using the same published series, so that the member is seen in its setting. They have no edition in the registry and are never joined to the region on code alone.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared rivers, glaciers and power links carry risk across borders. This chapter names each system, the states involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member country. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Bengaluru

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read South Asia as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SAS-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent South Asia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-SAS-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

52 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-SAS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• National inventories and reports to the UNFCCC : emissions on each state’s own basis
• Reservoir and river flow bulletins : Indus and Ganges flows
• Transmission utilities : cross-border power flows
• Reports Foundational Edition⁵¹ and the global baseline⁵⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e, using AR5 global warming potentials

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank World Development Indicators total greenhouse gas series³

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

the upstream compiler is not stated on the response read; national inventories may differ in basis

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 52POST-CLOSE, context only: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), publications listing (page opened; one report dated 13 October 2026 on the Gyirong and Rasuwa disaster of 26 August 2026 is listed by title only; its content was not read). ICIMOD, Kathmandu. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 6.0 earthquake, eastern Afghanistan, 31 August 2025, event page (the page returned no content; reported tolls of 2,217 from officials and higher from WHO seen in search results and not used). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Disaster Management Centre, Sri Lanka (ed.), Situation reports on Cyclone Ditwah (a toll of 649 deaths by 25 January 2026 and about 2.08 million people affected taken from search summaries of news and ReliefWeb; not used for any figure in the findings). DMC, Colombo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Institute of South Asian Studies (ed.), ISAS Brief 1428 on the Ganges treaty (12 October 2026; the file fetched was an image-only PDF and no text could be read). ISAS, National University of Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base of this edition; its text was not read for this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: South Asia by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 1 member countries named in the series registry.

Selected populations, 2025¹

B.4Atlas card: Indus basin

• basin
• shared river system
• irrigation and power
• India and Pakistan; Afghanistan in the wider system

Systems in view

water, food and energy

Defining instruments

Indus Waters Treaty 1960³⁹; Court of Arbitration award of 31 August 2026²²

Couplings

CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

a treaty regime exists and is contested²²; performance not bound

Gaps

flows, reservoir storage and project data

Agenda items

A-03

B.5South Asia system card

The card through which South Asia appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

one member edition with a seven-state reference group

Population

1,991 million across eight states, 2025 (ESTIMATED)¹

Trade

not bound at baseline

Hazard

floods in Pakistan in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people¹⁶

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-SAS-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.BASW.ZS basic drinking water and SH.STA.BASS.ZS basic sanitation services, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.152 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.BASW.ZS basic drinking water and SH.STA.BASS.ZS basic sanitation services, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
15. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
16. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
24. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
26. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
27. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports series registry (subjects.federation.json, entries REG-SAS and IND; region code SAS carried by these two entries only). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
29. 29W. W. Immerzeel, A. F. Lutz, M. Andrade et al., “Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers,” Nature, vol. 577, pp. 364–369, 2020 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
32. 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
33. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e25–e38, 2021 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35S. C. Sherwood and M. Huber, “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 107, pp. 9552–9555, 2010 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Institute of South Asian Studies (ed.), ISAS Brief 1428 on the Ganges treaty (12 October 2026; the file fetched was an image-only PDF and no text could be read). ISAS, National University of Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Disaster Management Centre, Sri Lanka (ed.), Situation reports on Cyclone Ditwah (a toll of 649 deaths by 25 January 2026 and about 2.08 million people affected taken from search summaries of news and ReliefWeb; not used for any figure in the findings). DMC, Colombo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 8
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 6.0 earthquake, eastern Afghanistan, 31 August 2025, event page (the page returned no content; reported tolls of 2,217 from officials and higher from WHO seen in search results and not used). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), South Asia Development Update, October 2026 (a 2026 growth forecast of 6.9% for South Asia and 3.6% excluding India taken from one search summary; not used for any figure in the findings). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Dhaka, 1985. SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. Observation year 1985. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base of this edition; its text was not read for this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
52. 52POST-CLOSE, context only: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), publications listing (page opened; one report dated 13 October 2026 on the Gyirong and Rasuwa disaster of 26 August 2026 is listed by title only; its content was not read). ICIMOD, Kathmandu. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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