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Brazil 2026

ब्राज़ील

Brazil (Brasil) enters 2027 with 214.2 million residents, an electricity system that was 86.8% renewable in 2025 and a sharp fall in forest loss. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, driven by lower deforestation, while net emissions of 1.49 Gt CO₂e remain above the 0.85 to 1.05 Gt range set for 2035.

Read the editionसंकट जोखिम-संपर्क
निष्कर्ष
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
स्रोत
48
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Brazil in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Brazil baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 214.2millionpopulation, 1 July 2026 [1]
  • 10.9%aged 65 or over, 2022 (derived) [2]
  • 2,145Mt CO₂egross emissions, 2024 [9]
  • 86.8%renewable electricity, 2025 [10]
  • 2.3%GDP growth, 2025 [3]
  • 27federative units26 states and the Federal District

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATजल2 findings

    88.6% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Large basins; 88.6% safely managed drinking water, 55.0% safely managed sanitation; floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon.

  2. ENEऊर्जा1 finding

    86.8% Renewable share of electricity supply, 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    86.8% renewable power; hydropower about half of generation; gas rises when rivers fall.

  3. INFअवसंरचनाnot assessed

    River transport and ports exposed to low water; levees and drainage tested in 2024.

  4. FOOखाद्य2 findings

    360.8 Mt Grain harvest, agency estimate, crop year 2025/26, 2025/26. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Large grain and oilseed output; outside the FAO Hunger Map; fertiliser dependence not bound.

  5. HLTस्वास्थ्य1 finding

    5,972 deaths Dengue deaths confirmed, 2024. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Life expectancy 76.6 years; dengue load in 2024; heat deaths not bound.

  6. BIOजैव विविधता2 findings

    5,796 km² Amazon deforestation estimate, PRODES, Aug 2024 to Jul 2025. रिपोर्ट किया गया

    Forest 58.5% of land; 29.4% of territory protected; deforestation falling, fire volatile.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-BRA-CLI-001

    Extreme rainfall and river flooding in the south

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    intense rainfall in a warming climate
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    floodplains, cities, farms
    भेद्यता
    levee and pumping design; settlement in flood zones
    क्षमता
    civil defence; recovery finance [15] [16]
    कैस्केड
    CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, FIN
    क्षितिज
    वार्षिक

    जल प्रणालियाँ

  • RSK-BRA-CLI-002

    Amazon drought, low rivers and fire

    रिपोर्ट किया गयाEQL 4

    चालक
    El Niño years on a warming baseline
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    river transport, riverine communities, forest
    भेद्यता
    dependence on rivers for supply and logistics
    क्षमता
    monitoring and fire brigades; reserves not bound
    कैस्केड
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, BIO
    क्षितिज
    seasonal

    जल प्रणालियाँभूमि और पारिस्थितिकी तंत्र

  • RSK-BRA-ENE-003

    Hydropower shortfall in a dry year

    InferredEQL 3

    चालक
    below-normal inflows across main basins
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    about half of power generation [10]
    भेद्यता
    basin concentration; storage margin not bound
    क्षमता
    gas, biomass, wind and solar growth [10]
    कैस्केड
    WAT → ENE → FOO, FIN
    क्षितिज
    1 to 5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-BRA-BIO-004

    Amazon forest loss and degradation

    InferredEQL 3

    चालक
    land conversion, fire and drought together
    जोखिम-अनावरण
    forest, regional rainfall, carbon stock
    भेद्यता
    degradation not captured by clear-cut loss
    क्षमता
    monitoring since 1988 [11]; falling loss rates
    कैस्केड
    BIO → CLI → WAT, FOO
    क्षितिज
    30 years

    भूमि और पारिस्थितिकी तंत्रजल प्रणालियाँ

Scenario · SCN-BRA-DRT-01

Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATrivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed
  2. 2WAT → INFriver ports and grain shipments disrupted
  3. 3WAT → ENEhydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises
  4. 4CLI → BIOfire season burns forest and savanna
  5. 5BIO → HLTsmoke and heat load on health services (not bound)
  6. 6ENE → FINpower cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound)

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Brazil matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core प्रणालियाँ. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
सेWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongमध्यमStrong
ENEमध्यम·StrongStrongमध्यम
FOOमध्यमWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakमध्यम·Weak
BIOStrongमध्यमStrongमध्यम·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → WAT → ENEdrought lowers river flows and hydropower, and thermal dispatch risesInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → INFrecord river lows interrupt river transportरिपोर्ट किया गया
  3. CLI → BIO → HLTdrought and fire raise smoke and heat load on health servicesInferred
  4. CLI → INF → FINfloods destroy assets and output, and fall on public budgetsरिपोर्ट किया गया
  5. BIO → CLI → FOOforest loss weakens regional moisture recycling that supports cropsInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Brazil.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Brazil
IDसंस्करणSector or systemस्थितिStatement
CLI-001ब्राज़ीलCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाGross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, led by lower land-use change; net emissions were 1.49 Gt CO₂e. SEEG is a civil-society estimate, not the official inventory.
CLI-002ब्राज़ीलCLI Climate forcing रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe 2035 target is a net reduction of 59 to 67% below 2005, equal to 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e on the latest inventory data.
BIO-003ब्राज़ीलBIO जैव विविधता रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe PRODES estimate for the Amazon was 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025, 11.08% below the previous year; MapBiomas counted 984,794 hectares lost nationally in 2025, 20.6% fewer than in 2024.
BIO-004ब्राज़ीलBIO जैव विविधता रिपोर्ट किया गयाAbout 30 million hectares burned in 2024 and about 12.7 million in 2025, against an annual mean of 18.4 million.
ENE-005ब्राज़ीलENE ऊर्जा रिपोर्ट किया गयाRenewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025. Hydropower fell 4.8% to 401.4 TWh while gas generation rose 22.7%, and wind and solar together supplied 26.4%.
WAT-006ब्राज़ीलWAT जल रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge record from 1902.
WAT-007ब्राज़ीलWAT जल रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of 497 municipalities and caused 185 confirmed deaths; effects are estimated at R$88.9 billion.
FOO-008ब्राज़ीलFOO खाद्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाThe 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares, and agricultural value added grew 11.7% in 2025.
FOO-009ब्राज़ीलFOO खाद्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाBrazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map; moderate or severe खाद्य असुरक्षा was 9.6% in 2023 to 2025, and 3.2% of households were in severe insecurity in 2024.
HLT-010ब्राज़ीलHLT स्वास्थ्य रिपोर्ट किया गयाDengue caused 6,484,890 probable cases and 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024; WHO had already counted 6.3 million suspected cases in Brazil by 30 April. Life expectancy reached 76.6 years.
FIN-011ब्राज़ीलFIN वित्त रिपोर्ट किया गयाGeneral government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions, with the policy rate at 14.0% at end-2025.
SYS-012ब्राज़ीलSYS प्रणालीगत Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Brazil.

The desks’ editions for Brazil
डेस्कसंस्करणस्थितिपहचानकर्ता
GCRI Systems EvidenceBrazil 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Brazil 2026तैयारी में
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Brazil 2026तैयारी में
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Brazil 2026तैयारी में

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03साक्ष्य समापन30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07सुधारafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

सुधार लॉग

Versions and corrections
संस्करणतिथिस्थितिबदलावसूचना
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,कोई नहीं
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
अंतरालShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/bra/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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