Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Brazil 2026
Brasil
Brazil (Brasil) enters 2027 with 214.2 million residents, an electricity system that was 86.8% renewable in 2025 and a sharp fall in forest loss. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, driven by lower deforestation, while net emissions of 1.49 Gt CO₂e remain above the 0.85 to 1.05 Gt range set for 2035.
- Constatações
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fontes
- 48
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Brazil in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Brazil baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATÁgua2 findings
88.6% People using safely managed drinking water, 2024. □Declarado
Large basins; 88.6% safely managed drinking water, 55.0% safely managed sanitation; floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon.
- ENEEnergia1 finding
86.8% Renewable share of electricity supply, 2025. □Declarado
86.8% renewable power; hydropower about half of generation; gas rises when rivers fall.
- INFinfraestruturanot assessed
River transport and ports exposed to low water; levees and drainage tested in 2024.
- FOOAlimentação2 findings
360.8 Mt Grain harvest, agency estimate, crop year 2025/26, 2025/26. □Declarado
Large grain and oilseed output; outside the FAO Hunger Map; fertiliser dependence not bound.
- HLTSaúde1 finding
5,972 deaths Dengue deaths confirmed, 2024. □Declarado
Life expectancy 76.6 years; dengue load in 2024; heat deaths not bound.
- BIOBiodiversidade2 findings
5,796 km² Amazon deforestation estimate, PRODES, Aug 2024 to Jul 2025. □Declarado
Forest 58.5% of land; 29.4% of territory protected; deforestation falling, fire volatile.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-BRA-CLI-001
Extreme rainfall and river flooding in the south
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- intense rainfall in a warming climate
- Exposição
- floodplains, cities, farms
- Vulnerabilidade
- levee and pumping design; settlement in flood zones
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, FIN
- Horizonte
- anual
RSK-BRA-CLI-002
Amazon drought, low rivers and fire
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- El Niño years on a warming baseline
- Exposição
- river transport, riverine communities, forest
- Vulnerabilidade
- dependence on rivers for supply and logistics
- Capacidade
- monitoring and fire brigades; reserves not bound
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, BIO
- Horizonte
- seasonal
RSK-BRA-ENE-003
Hydropower shortfall in a dry year
▲InferredEQL 3
- Fator
- below-normal inflows across main basins
- Exposição
- about half of power generation [10]
- Vulnerabilidade
- basin concentration; storage margin not bound
- Capacidade
- gas, biomass, wind and solar growth [10]
- Cascata
- WAT → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizonte
- 1 to 5 years
No domain reading
RSK-BRA-BIO-004
Amazon forest loss and degradation
▲InferredEQL 3
- Fator
- land conversion, fire and drought together
- Exposição
- forest, regional rainfall, carbon stock
- Vulnerabilidade
- degradation not captured by clear-cut loss
- Capacidade
- monitoring since 1988 [11]; falling loss rates
- Cascata
- BIO → CLI → WAT, FOO
- Horizonte
- 30 years
Scenario · SCN-BRA-DRT-01
Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATrivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed
- 2WAT → INFriver ports and grain shipments disrupted
- 3WAT → ENEhydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises
- 4CLI → BIOfire season burns forest and savanna
- 5BIO → HLTsmoke and heat load on health services (not bound)
- 6ENE → FINpower cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound)
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Brazil matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado | Strong |
| ENE | Moderado | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado |
| FOO | Moderado | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderado | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderado | Strong | Moderado | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → ENEdrought lowers river flows and hydropower, and thermal dispatch rises▲Inferred
- CLI → WAT → INFrecord river lows interrupt river transport□Declarado
- CLI → BIO → HLTdrought and fire raise smoke and heat load on health services▲Inferred
- CLI → INF → FINfloods destroy assets and output, and fall on public budgets□Declarado
- BIO → CLI → FOOforest loss weakens regional moisture recycling that supports crops▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Brazil.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edição | Sector or system | Situação | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Brasil | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, led by lower land-use change; net emissions were 1.49 Gt CO₂e. SEEG is a civil-society estimate, not the official inventory. |
| CLI-002 | Brasil | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The 2035 target is a net reduction of 59 to 67% below 2005, equal to 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e on the latest inventory data. |
| BIO-003 | Brasil | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | The PRODES estimate for the Amazon was 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025, 11.08% below the previous year; MapBiomas counted 984,794 hectares lost nationally in 2025, 20.6% fewer than in 2024. |
| BIO-004 | Brasil | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | About 30 million hectares burned in 2024 and about 12.7 million in 2025, against an annual mean of 18.4 million. |
| ENE-005 | Brasil | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025. Hydropower fell 4.8% to 401.4 TWh while gas generation rose 22.7%, and wind and solar together supplied 26.4%. |
| WAT-006 | Brasil | WAT Água | □ Declarado | The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge record from 1902. |
| WAT-007 | Brasil | WAT Água | □ Declarado | The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of 497 municipalities and caused 185 confirmed deaths; effects are estimated at R$88.9 billion. |
| FOO-008 | Brasil | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | The 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares, and agricultural value added grew 11.7% in 2025. |
| FOO-009 | Brasil | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map; moderate or severe Insegurança alimentar was 9.6% in 2023 to 2025, and 3.2% of households were in severe insecurity in 2024. |
| HLT-010 | Brasil | HLT Saúde | □ Declarado | Dengue caused 6,484,890 probable cases and 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024; WHO had already counted 6.3 million suspected cases in Brazil by 30 April. Life expectancy reached 76.6 years. |
| FIN-011 | Brasil | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions, with the policy rate at 14.0% at end-2025. |
| SYS-012 | Brasil | SYS Sistêmico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Brazil.
| Escritório | Edição | Situação | Identificador |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Brazil 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Brazil 2026 | Em preparação | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Brazil 2026 | Em preparação | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Brazil 2026 | Em preparação |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correçõesafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LerThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuirSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- AnáliseJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versão | Date | Situação | Variação | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nenhum |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Lacuna | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/bra/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Brazil.
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