Reports · GCRI · Country profile
France 2026
França
France enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions to 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but at a pace the High Council for the Climate judges too slow for the 2030 target of 270 Mt. Its electricity is about 95% low-carbon and the country exported a record volume of power in 2024, yet the same nuclear fleet showed its exposure in 2022, when corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling cut output to its lowest level since 1988.
- Constatações
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fontes
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
France in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATÁgua1 finding
≈58% Share of freshwater consumed by agriculture, recent. □Declarado
Low summer flows shared by irrigation, cooling and drinking water; 17.1 million residents exposed to river flooding.
- ENEEnergia2 findings
≈95% Low-carbon share of electricity, 2024. □Declarado
About 95% low-carbon electricity; nuclear output exposed to heat and low flows.
- INFinfraestruturanot assessed
Rail, roads and networks exposed to heat, floods and clay movement.
- FOOAlimentação1 finding
≈18% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. □Declarado
The EU’s largest agricultural producer; harvests cut in hot, dry years.
- HLTSaúde1 finding
3,700+ deaths Heat-attributable deaths, summer, 2024. □Declarado
More than 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024; older people most exposed.
- BIOBiodiversidade1 finding
≈−30% Change in farmland bird populations, 1989–2023. □Declarado
Farmland birds down about 30% since 1989; incêndios florestais reaching new regions.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-FRA-CLI-001
calor extremo
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- heatwaves above 40 °C; tropical nights
- Exposição
- people aged 75 and over; dense cities
- Vulnerabilidade
- isolation; housing without cooling
- Capacidade
- heat-health alerts; national onda de calor plan
- Cascata
- CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE cooling demand
- Horizonte
- seasonal
RSK-FRA-WAT-002
Drought and low river flows
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- dry winters; hot summers
- Exposição
- nuclear cooling, irrigation, drinking water
- Vulnerabilidade
- three uses sharing the same low flows
- Capacidade
- water restrictions; Plan Eau [11]
- Cascata
- WAT → ENE, FOO, HLT
- Horizonte
- seasonal · 5 years
RSK-FRA-FIN-003
Clay shrink-swell subsidence
□DeclaradoEQL 3
RSK-FRA-CLI-004
River and Mediterranean flash flooding
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- intense autumn storms; river floods
- Exposição
- 17.1 million residents [22]
- Vulnerabilidade
- building in flood-prone areas
- Capacidade
- flood forecasting; risk-prevention plans
- Cascata
- CLI → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizonte
- anual
Scenario · SCN-FRA-HDN-01
Hot, dry summer with low river flows
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow rainfall and heat cut river flows
- 2WAT → ENEreactors cut output to respect discharge-temperature limits
- 3CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
- 4WAT → FOOirrigation restrictions and heat cut harvests
- 5CLI → BIOwildfires in the south-west and beyond
- 6WAT → FINclay subsidence claims rise under CatNat
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The France matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado | Strong |
| ENE | Moderado | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado |
| FOO | Moderado | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderado | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderado | Strong | Moderado | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → ENEheat and low flows force nuclear output cuts□Declarado
- CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older people□Declarado
- CLI → WAT → FINdrought shrinks clay soils, cracks houses and raises CatNat claims□Declarado
- WAT → FOOdrought and irrigation limits cut harvests▲Inferred
- CLI → BIOincêndios florestais spreads to regions once spared□Declarado
05 · Findings
Every finding of France.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edição | Sector or system | Situação | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | França | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | Territorial emissions were 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 1.8% below 2023 and 32% below 1990. |
| CLI-002 | França | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | Meeting the 2030 target of 270 Mt requires cuts of about 15 Mt a year; the 2024 cut was about 7 Mt. |
| CLI-003 | França | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France. |
| ENE-004 | França | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling coincided. |
| ENE-005 | França | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Electricity was about 95% low-carbon in 2024; power-sector emissions fell 26% as nuclear and hydro output recovered. |
| HLT-006 | França | HLT Saúde | □ Declarado | Heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024; about three quarters were among people aged 75 and over. |
| FOO-007 | França | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | France produces about 18% of the EU’s agricultural output, the largest share of any member state. |
| WAT-008 | França | WAT Água | □ Declarado | Agriculture accounts for about 58% of freshwater consumed; the Plan Eau targets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030. |
| FIN-009 | França | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence, a leading cost of the CatNat regime. |
| FIN-010 | França | FIN Finanças | □ Declarado | Natural-event insurance claims reached about €10 billion in 2022, the highest since 1999. |
| BIO-011 | França | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | Farmland bird populations have declined by about 30% since 1989. |
| SYS-012 | França | SYS Sistêmico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought, incêndios florestais and clay subsidence load health, food and insurance. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for France.
| Escritório | Edição | Situação | Identificador |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | France 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: France 2026 | Em preparação | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: France 2026 | Em preparação | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: France 2026 | Em preparação |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correçõesafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-FRA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LerThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuirSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- AnáliseJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versão | Date | Situação | Variação | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nenhum |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Lacuna | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/fra/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
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