Reports · GCRI · Country profile
India 2026
Índia
India enters 2027 with a population of 1,463.9 million, a power fleet that is now more than half non-fossil by capacity, and a water and food system that rests on one seasonal rainfall regime. The population figure is for 2025.
- Constatações
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fontes
- 52
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
India in six readings.
Six readings that frame the India baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATÁgua2 findings
60.6% Groundwater extraction as a share of the extractable resource, 2025. □Declarado
Extraction at 60.63% of the extractable groundwater; over-exploited units concentrated in the north-west, west and south.
- ENEEnergia2 findings
54% Non-fossil sources in installed power capacity, 31 Jul 2026. □Declarado
Non-fossil sources are 54% of capacity; fossil fuels still supply about 73% of generation.
- INFinfraestruturanot assessed
Fast-growing urban and lifeline stock exposed to flood, heat and sismo; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.
- FOOAlimentação1 finding
376.6 Mt Foodgrain production, third advance estimate, 2025–26. □Declarado
Record foodgrain estimate of 376.563 Mt for 2025–26; wheat export ban continues.
- HLTSaúde1 finding
72.2 years Life expectancy at birth, 2024. □Declarado
Life expectancy 72.2 years; heat-death counts are inconsistent; air-pollution mortality was 139.3 per 100,000 in 2019.
- BIOBiodiversidade1 finding
7.7 % of land Terrestrial area under protection, 2024. □Declarado
Forest is 24.4% of land and 7.7% of land is protected; condition outside protection is not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-IND-CLI-001
Multi-year monsoon deficit with groundwater stress
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- deficient monsoon seasons and rising temperature
- Exposição
- irrigated and rain-fed farmland, cities, hydropower
- Vulnerabilidade
- groundwater extraction above 100% in three states
- Capacidade
- storage and demand management not bound
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
- Horizonte
- annual to 5 years
No domain reading
RSK-IND-CLI-002
Cloudburst, flood and landslide sequence in the mountains and plains
□DeclaradoEQL 4
- Fator
- chuva extrema on steep or flood-prone terrain
- Exposição
- mountain valleys, river plains and coasts
- Vulnerabilidade
- roads, power lines and settlements in hazard zones; not bound
- Capacidade
- warnings and response agencies; effectiveness not bound
- Cascata
- CLI → INF → HLT, ENE
- Horizonte
- anual
RSK-IND-ENE-003
Power-system balancing as solar share grows
□DeclaradoEQL 3
- Fator
- evening demand after solar output falls
- Exposição
- households, industry and agriculture
- Vulnerabilidade
- fossil generation still about 73% of supply
- Capacidade
- storage and flexible capacity not bound
- Cascata
- ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN
- Horizonte
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-IND-HLT-004
Extreme heat and humidity
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- Fator
- heat waves and warm nights
- Exposição
- outdoor workers, older people, dense housing
- Vulnerabilidade
- cooling access and housing; not bound
- Capacidade
- heat action plans exist as guidance [43]; use not bound
- Cascata
- CLI → HLT → ENE
- Horizonte
- seasonal
Scenario · SCN-IND-MON-01
A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATrecharge falls and pumping rises in units already over-exploited
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation draws on falling groundwater; rain-fed output is exposed; no figure bound
- 3FOO → FINfood prices pass into household budgets; no figure bound
- 4ENE → WATpumping and cooling demand add load to the power system
- 5CLI → HLTheat and water stress raise health and care demand
- 6WAT → BIOdrier soils and forests raise fire and stress on wetlands
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The India matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado | Strong |
| ENE | Moderado | · | Strong | Strong | Moderado |
| FOO | Moderado | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderado | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderado | Strong | Moderado | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOa deficient monsoon lowers recharge and raises pumping, and tests irrigated and rain-fed crops□Declarado
- CLI → INF → HLTcloudbursts, floods and landslides cut roads and lifelines in the mountains□Declarado
- ENE → WATpumping and cooling demand couple groundwater to the power system◎Expert input
- TRD → ENE → FINnet energy imports pass fuel prices into the economy□Declarado
- CLI → HLTcalor extremo loads health and care; deaths are counted inconsistently□Declarado
05 · Findings
Every finding of India.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edição | Sector or system | Situação | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Índia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | 2025 was the eighth warmest year in the national record since 1901, 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 average; winter 2025 had the highest seasonal anomaly on record (+1.17 °C), and 2024 remains the warmest year (+0.65 °C). |
| CLI-002 | Índia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average (759.4 mm), the fourth lowest total since 2001; East and Northeast India received 74% and the South Peninsula 76%, and 17 of 36 subdivisions, covering 42% of the area, were deficient. |
| CLI-003 | Índia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The weather service recorded about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather in 2025: more than 1,370 from heavy rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides, and more than 1,310 from lightning. The count draws on media and disaster-authority reports. |
| WAT-004 | Índia | WAT Água | □ Declarado | Groundwater extraction was 247.22 billion cubic metres in 2025, 60.63% of the 407.75 billion extractable; 730 of 6,762 assessment units (10.8%) were over-exploited, with stage of extraction at 156.36% in Punjab, 147.11% in Rajasthan and 136.75% in Haryana. |
| WAT-005 | Índia | WAT Água | □ Declarado | Renewable internal freshwater was about 1,014 m³ per person in 2022, and peer-reviewed satellite and modelling studies find falling groundwater storage in northern India, with pumping as a major driver. |
| ENE-006 | Índia | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | On 31 July 2026 non-fossil sources provided 300.50 GW of about 552 GW installed capacity, over 54%: solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio-power 11.75 GW and nuclear 8.78 GW; 55.29 GW was added in 2025–26. |
| ENE-007 | Índia | ENE Energia | □ Declarado | Fossil generation fell 3.3% in 2025 as renewables grew by a record 98 TWh; solar reached 196 TWh, 9.4% of demand, and fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of generation. Net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024. |
| CLI-008 | Índia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Declarado | The latest official inventory gives 2,959 Mt CO₂e for 2020 excluding land use, with energy 2,238 Mt; the 2035 contribution targets a 47% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 and net zero by 2070. |
| FOO-009 | Índia | FOO Alimentação | □ Declarado | The third advance estimate for 2025–26 puts foodgrain at a record 376.563 Mt, up 5.3% on 2024–25, with rice at 154.024 Mt and wheat at 120.657 Mt; the wheat export ban of May 2022 continues. |
| HLT-010 | Índia | HLT Saúde | □ Declarado | Life expectancy was 72.2 years in 2024 and 7.4% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025; no consistent national heat-death series exists, since the national disease-control centre confirmed 14 deaths between March and June 2025 while a media review found at least 84 between February and July. |
| BIO-011 | Índia | BIO Biodiversidade | □ Declarado | Forest covered 24.4% of land in 2024 and 7.7% of land was under terrestrial protection; condition outside protected areas is not bound in this edition. |
| SYS-012 | Índia | SYS Sistêmico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a second deficient monsoon that cuts groundwater recharge, kharif output and household food budgets together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for India.
| Escritório | Edição | Situação | Identificador |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | India 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: India 2026 | Em preparação | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: India 2026 | Em preparação | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: India 2026 | Em preparação |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correçõesafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-IND-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LerThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuirSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- AnáliseJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versão | Date | Situação | Variação | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nenhum |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Lacuna | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ind/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
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