Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Water
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average, the fourth lowest total since 2001. East and Northeast India received 74% of its average, its lowest season since 1901, and the South Peninsula 76%.

Figure 2.1The 2026 monsoon by month, all India (% of the long period average)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
June65
July101
August84
September92

Source: India Meteorological Department, salient features of the 2026 southwest monsoon season16. June was 65% of the average, and the Kerala onset on 4 June was three days late.

Implication

A season at 87% of the average reaches water, crops and power at different speeds. Reservoir and groundwater effects persist into the dry season, and crop effects show in the production estimates that follow. The 2025 season was 108% of the average and coincided with a record foodgrain estimate for 2025–261419. The weather service reported 17 of 36 subdivisions as deficient in 2026, covering 42% of the area16.

What would move it

Kharif 2026 production estimates, reservoir storage in the dry season, groundwater levels in the north-west and south, and the 2027 monsoon forecast would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    2025 was the eighth warmest year in the national record since 1901, 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 average; winter 2025 had the highest seasonal anomaly on record (+1.17 °C), and 2024 remains the warmest year (+0.65 °C).14

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average (759.4 mm), the fourth lowest total since 2001; East and Northeast India received 74% and the South Peninsula 76%, and 17 of 36 subdivisions, covering 42% of the area, were deficient.16

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    The weather service recorded about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather in 2025: more than 1,370 from heavy rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides, and more than 1,310 from lightning. The count draws on media and disaster-authority reports.14

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    The latest official inventory gives 2,959 Mt CO₂e for 2020 excluding land use, with energy 2,238 Mt; the 2035 contribution targets a 47% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 and net zero by 2070.56740

2.3Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

    Groundwater extraction was 247.22 billion cubic metres in 2025, 60.63% of the 407.75 billion extractable; 730 of 6,762 assessment units (10.8%) were over-exploited, with stage of extraction at 156.36% in Punjab, 147.11% in Rajasthan and 136.75% in Haryana.18

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Renewable internal freshwater was about 1,014 m³ per person in 2022, and peer-reviewed satellite and modelling studies find falling groundwater storage in northern India, with pumping as a major driver.32425

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    On 31 July 2026 non-fossil sources provided 300.50 GW of about 552 GW installed capacity, over 54%: solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio-power 11.75 GW and nuclear 8.78 GW; 55.29 GW was added in 2025–26.910

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    Fossil generation fell 3.3% in 2025 as renewables grew by a record 98 TWh; solar reached 196 TWh, 9.4% of demand, and fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of generation. Net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024.3111213

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    The third advance estimate for 2025–26 puts foodgrain at a record 376.563 Mt, up 5.3% on 2024–25, with rice at 154.024 Mt and wheat at 120.657 Mt; the wheat export ban of May 2022 continues.1920

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    Life expectancy was 72.2 years in 2024 and 7.4% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025; no consistent national heat-death series exists, since the national disease-control centre confirmed 14 deaths between March and June 2025 while a media review found at least 84 between February and July.22122

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Forest covered 24.4% of land in 2024 and 7.7% of land was under terrestrial protection; condition outside protected areas is not bound in this edition.3

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a second deficient monsoon that cuts groundwater recharge, kharif output and household food budgets together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  2. 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
  4. 5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
  5. 6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  6. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  7. 40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  8. 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
  10. 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238back
  11. 25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869back
  12. 9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
  13. 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
  14. 11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  15. 12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  16. 13pv magazine (ed.), “Record solar, wind surge drives 3.3% drop in India’s fossil generation in 2025,” reporting Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026. pv magazine, Berlin, 27 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  17. 20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  18. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
  19. 21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
  20. 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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