Skip to content

Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

全球系统风险与韧性报告 2026

The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. The first annual edition of the global report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the interdependent global system, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 global edition and every series edition will be read.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 817 KB · 99 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
办事处
GCRI Systems Evidence
正式出版方
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
证据截止
30 September 2026
状态
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
报告GLB

全球系统风险与韧性

Global Systems 2026

The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change

2026 基准版NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
发现12each with its status and source
来源47numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
指标19in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-GLB-2026-BL
Family · class
全球 系统 Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
证据截止
30 September 2026 · cut DC-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-B0
可复现性
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
审核
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · 全球风险 screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
不适用于
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
登记册
record NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
更正
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
人工智能使用
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
许可协议
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-GLB-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.

    How warm is the world?报告值

  2. Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.

    Are disaster losses rising?报告值

  3. Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.

    Who carries the losses?报告值

  4. No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.

    Are emissions falling?报告值

  5. 673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising 尾部风险.

    Is the food system stable?报告值

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. The world’s risk is entangled, not additive

    Part I describes 系统 and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the global baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    四 全球风险 objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 global agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
  2. 1.1Where did 2025’s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.12027 global readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional flagships
  10. 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
  11. 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1方法
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  37. B.3Global source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  39. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  40. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports an entangled reading of 全球风险. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core 系统 share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.

CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
版本
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
证据截止
状态
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
正式出版方
全球风险与创新中心（Global Centre for Risk and Innovation，GCRI）
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

角色贡献By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the global system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
方法论Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar报告 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
监管Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

发布前评审

通过范围By状态
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T已排期
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T已排期
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M已排期
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F已排期
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key N已排期

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 打印

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF99 pages817 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 318a10ccbc69937c495bbbe6b073fb6cb5c54134461bbb8454d4860a5b847c2e

      下载: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF105 pages823 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 017513c76d81bceff0e233921871ebb84daae674dcbcb663616fee7faaf0b578

      下载: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      19 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 3cf7dbb2e43df3c56ffcd533134dc4f0974de715bf3ba7f0852be93463ac5315

      下载: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 9074ab9e3b00d5ca85e2813a4d62f07109422fd3e991bff9bf70cb78ed3ce66c

      下载: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 53b0d06e02e6d2eeaf4a5cea9c6dd1cdda8b7b7569f183a641509a5c809784ee

      下载: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 c7fc305e1e370c70eb3f7795acc51825ff32f3f4254b219a429df386d3880b96

      下载: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 34252501a9de4ae9ca6c51f5608345dfddc7978d1086b368e860047e3f6b0961

      下载: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 a10736cfe1728e89c36a31fbcdced64e8153ba8790444bef41fa25a21ebdc9c6

      下载: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

监测

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/glb/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
报告贡献

Send evidence or a correction on Global Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI 系统 证据编辑部。您对此主题的了解可以成为下一期的证据、案例或更正，署您的名，若为您本人的作品则以 CC BY 4.0 发布。若发送到错误的编辑部，会被转交，不会被拒绝。

GCRI Systems 证据编辑部全球系统风险与韧性
Contribution form · reports.contribution.gcri

切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。

Reports · GCRI

Bring evidence to the next edition.

Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.

贡献更正记录
  • NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE
  • CC BY 4.0
  • Evidence close 30 September 2026

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Your role here

What you can do from this page.

  • ReaderNew to the reports? A short guide to reading an edition.从这里开始
  • ContributorYour contributions to this edition and the reviews open on it are listed below the edition.贡献
  • 审稿人Review for this desk; verified reviews are credited.成为评审人
  • Editor, steward or boardQueues, decisions and production are in the workspace.My workspace

This edition

Contributions and reviews on GLB

Open contributions to this edition
0
Reviews open on this edition
0

Open your account on this site to see your own contributions to this edition and any review invited from you.