GCRI · 量子技术
量子产业
Quantum technology is moving from laboratories into firms that build hardware, software, components and services, supported by large public and private investment. Revenues are small relative to expectations, many products are prototypes, and supply chains for specialised components are thin. This page sets out how quantum industries are developing, how their activity is measured without hype, and what evidence serves investors, governments and buyers.
工作如何开展。
后量子迁移跟踪器
Quantum industries · Crypto inventory · Wave 4
移民
- 清单所有加密算法
- 确定优先次序数据寿命
- 选择标准算法
- 混合部署经典算法与后量子密码
- 检验互操作性
- 切换退役
按优先级排列的系统
| 存档签名 | RSA-2048 | 28 | ML-DSA 混合 | 试点 |
| VPN 网关 | ECDH | 10 | ML-KEM 混合方案 | 已计划 |
| 支付 HSM | RSA-3072 | 10 | 供应商路线图 | 已阻止 |
| Web TLS | ECDHE | 3 | 混合密钥交换 | 已完成 |
进度
图Post-quantum migration tracker: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Quantum industries: how the risk develops.
Potential supply chains and applications. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Investment precedes revenue
Public programmes and venture capital fund firms years before products earn significant revenue. Expectations can run ahead of technical progress.
Enablers form a supply chain
Cryogenics, lasers, control electronics and photonic components are supplied by specialised firms, often few per component.
Cloud access shapes the market
Most users access quantum hardware through cloud services, which lets them experiment without owning machines.
Policy drives location
National strategies, procurement and export controls shape where firms locate and who they can sell to.
How quantum industries is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in quantum industries: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Quantum industries are early, and claims outrun evidence.
Industry analyses are designed for the 指数级技术系列. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) assesses no vendor and gives no investment view; it reports evidence and its gaps.
- Benchmarks published with methods.
- Independent replications.
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public funding announced for quantum | currency units | 年度 | Government announcements | 已声明 |
| Private investment in quantum firms | currency units | 年度 | Investment databases | 已报告 |
| Quantum firms by segment | 计数 | 年度 | Industry surveys | 已报告 |
| Quantum patents filed | 计数 | 年度 | Patent databases | 观测 |
| Quantum hardware accessible via cloud | count of 系统 | 年度 | Provider documentation | 已声明 |
| Revenue of quantum firms | currency units | 年度 | Company reports | 已报告 |
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| OECD quantum technologies policy primer and related work | Policy, investment and industry overview | Public, OECD terms |
| Patent data from WIPO PATENTSCOPE and EPO Espacenet | Patent filings by technology and applicant | Free access, terms per office |
| Company filings of listed quantum firms | Revenue and risk disclosures | 公共记录 |
| Government quantum strategy documents | Announced public funding | Public records, licence per government |
| Industry market reports | Firm counts and investment | Commercial; public summaries (to check) |
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Quantum Technologies prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Governments and economic agencies | Which parts of the quantum industry to support | Industry maps; supply chain analyses |
| Investors | How to read industry claims and progress | Revenue and technical evidence |
| Buyers of quantum services | Which services are mature enough to use | Cloud access and benchmark evidence |
该主题产生的产出
- Industry maps by segment and component
- Investment and revenue tracking with sources stated
- Supply chain dependency analyses
- Evidence notes separating announced from spent funding
专家提出的问题。
Industry questions separate near-term reality from long-term potential.
- Which applications are commercially real today, and which depend on future fault-tolerant machines?
- Where are critical components made, and how concentrated is supply?
- How dependent is the industry on public funding and on a few large technology firms?
- What happens to firms, investors and regions if expectations are not met on schedule?
- How do export controls and research security rules shape markets?
机制与驱动因素。
Quantum sensing and timing already have markets. Quantum computing is mainly sold as cloud access for research and exploration, and quantum key distribution serves niche uses. Many larger applications depend on capabilities that do not yet exist, so valuations rest heavily on expectation, which makes the industry sensitive to shifts in sentiment.
Supply chains rely on specialised inputs: dilution refrigerators, lasers, photonic chips, isotopically enriched materials and control electronics, often from few suppliers. Governments treat quantum as strategic, investing heavily and restricting exports of some equipment, which shapes where firms locate and who can access technology.
如何研究，以及方法止于何处。
| 方法或数据 | 显示内容 | 局限 |
|---|---|---|
| Supply-chain mapping | Concentration and single points of failure | Firm-level data is often confidential |
| Investment and funding data | Scale and direction of capital | Announcements may not reflect committed funds |
| Technology readiness assessment | How mature an application is | Readiness scales are subjective |
| Case studies of adoption | How organisations actually use quantum services | Few cases, often reported by vendors |
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
How big is the quantum industry?
What are quantum enabling technologies?
Can organisations use quantum computers today?
Is the quantum industry a bubble?
Which quantum products are on the market today?
Does the platform give investment advice?
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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法律文件。
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